Goldman's Jan Hatzius Says That Americans Haven't Learned Anything From The Crisis
Earlier today, Goldman's Peter Oppenheimer made the news following publication of his report "The Long Good Buy" posted here.
In itself, that would be nothing spectacular - just one man's opinion.
However, when taken in the entirety of Goldman's views on the world,
it bears some criticism, because while on one hand we have a key
Goldman strategist telling the world it is all clear in stocks,
virtually at the same time Goldman's chief economic strategist, Jan
Hatzius, who is German, gave the following interview to Handelsblatt,
in which he lays out his "doubts about an early recovery of the U.S.
economy. In this interview he explains why positive unemployment figures are deceptive, and
why the real estate crisis will have lasting effect." Perhaps his most
important observation, when asked if Americans have learned anything
from the crisis: "I do not think there has been a big change in behavior. During
the crisis, Americans simply responded to the realities. They could
no longer borrow as much money. Now again a little more credit is
available, and you can borrow some more money again. But I do not think there has been a fundamental change."
Alas he is correct, and incidentally the reason why Goldman has such a
massive credibility problem is that while on one hand one part of the
firm goes ahead and pitches equities, on the other, a respected
economist says that the economy is so sluggish that he gives a greater
than 50% chance of more QE. Perhaps at this point it is bear reminding
what a third Goldman strategist said back in October 2010: "Goldman Sachs Admits The Truth: "The Economy Is Not The Market And QE2 Is Not A Panacea."
Then again, with career risk once again paramount for every money
manager out there, as the bulk of hedge funds once again underperform
the market, perhaps not.
So Long Housing - Mortgage Applications Collapse, And Sentiment Update
There are those who, not illogically, thought that the second interest rates start creeping up, that there would be a rush of mortgage activity to lock in rates as low as possible before 30 year mortgages roll ever higher. Of course, for that plan to work, one Benjamin Shalom Bernanke would need to have broad credibility among the general population, as he would need to be perceived as one who would not rush to purchase bonds in the future, should rates jump far too high, in the process impairing banks and PDs which still hold massive amounts of paper. If, however, that plan were to not work, then the latest recent attempt to force a rotation out of stocks and into bonds would have abysmal consequences on housing, as the entire mortgage issuance machinery would grind to a halt. Alas, it appears the latter has happened. Minutes ago we got the latest MBA Mortgage Application data and it was ugly. The broad Mortgage Application index collapsed by 7.4% in the week ending March 16, when rates experienced the bulk of the move downward, which was the 6th consecutive week of declines, following last week's 2.4% drop. And while refis have been down for 5 weeks in a row, with the index slamming 9.3% lower as higher rates have now obviously killed any interest in mortgages, so have purchase applications. MBA Purchasing index was down 4.4%, breaking a trend of 3 weeks of gains. Some other hard statistics: the Average 30 year fixed rate soared to 4.19% from 4.06% last week, while the refi % of number of loans dropped to 73.4% - the lowest since July 2011.
John Williams, Executive Editor at Shadow
Government Statistics, believes that hyperinflation is inevitable by
2014. With Sugar Daddy Benji Bernanke in charge of the money supply,
that is sadly a no-brain er folks. In addition, when the government is
borrowing more than 40 cents for every dollar spent, it is also a
forgone conclusion.
With gas prices in California at $4.35
and gas about $1.50 less south of the border, is it any wonder that
drivers are brushing up on their Spanish? The reason it’s so cheap is
because the Mexican government regulates prices; however, as more
customers go south, there is an increased probability that there soon
will be empty gas pumps or other restrictions. Pretty much like what
happened in the U.S. during the 1970′s.
Red Handed!
Yes folks SGTReport has caught the election fraud in progress. He took
screen shots of election results and posted on his site 24 hours before
the Caucus voting was even to begin. Welcome to the United Banana
Republic or the fourth Reich folks!
According to a Rasmussen poll, 26% of
Americans are so delusional that they are willing to pay higher taxes to
reduce the Federal deficit. Wow! Guess someone needs to those people
that the one can give more to the IRS than they owe. Let’s see how
generous they are.
Gold bears do not seem to understand that
the paper manipulated gold price is working in favor of the Chinese.
They are buying on the dips and physical gold is disappearing. In
short, while the precious metals market may appear quiet on the surface,
the manipulation game is coming to an end; therefore, keep stacking.
Next…
40 Embarrassing Things That America Is The Best In The World At
http://endoftheamericandream.com
40 Embarrassing Things That America Is The Best In The World At
http://endoftheamericandream.com
Here are a few…
1. Of all the major industrialized nations, America is the most obese.
2. The United States leads the world in credit card fraud.
3. There is more credit card debt in America than anywhere else in the world.
1. Of all the major industrialized nations, America is the most obese.
2. The United States leads the world in credit card fraud.
3. There is more credit card debt in America than anywhere else in the world.
Well the motor City has stalled. Detroit
city government finances are still on an unsustainable course. It is
pretty much like the debt crisis is Europe. Obama, to help his Union
thugs, better start thinking about sending them some more Obama money.
Next…
Job Seekers Getting Asked for Facebook Passwords (Thanks YT User 7575047)
http://finance.yahoo.com
Job Seekers Getting Asked for Facebook Passwords (Thanks YT User 7575047)
http://finance.yahoo.com
Forget the usual interview questions of
“Why do you want to work with us?” Now, interviewers want to know your
Facebook username and password. Orwell is here now. He is living
large. We have no names man… No names. We are nameless.
from GoldMoney:
The “China slowdown” meme dominated the economic news yesterday, leading to a sell-off in commodities and precious metals. The silver price in particular suffered – the metal coming under heavy selling pressure into the close of the Comex trading session in New York, falling below $32 before recovering later. The gold price held up better than silver, but is still only just teetering above support at $1,650.
The mauling in the commodities sector brought an end to a nine-day losing streak for US Treasuries. ZeroHedge comments that during the last 31 years of rising Treasury bond prices, we have never seen 10 consecutive days of yield increases – though June 2006 also saw nine days in a row. Ominously as far as the US housing market is concerned, mortgage rates are back above 4% and have jumped the most in the last week for 16 months.
Read More @ goldmoney.com
The “China slowdown” meme dominated the economic news yesterday, leading to a sell-off in commodities and precious metals. The silver price in particular suffered – the metal coming under heavy selling pressure into the close of the Comex trading session in New York, falling below $32 before recovering later. The gold price held up better than silver, but is still only just teetering above support at $1,650.
The mauling in the commodities sector brought an end to a nine-day losing streak for US Treasuries. ZeroHedge comments that during the last 31 years of rising Treasury bond prices, we have never seen 10 consecutive days of yield increases – though June 2006 also saw nine days in a row. Ominously as far as the US housing market is concerned, mortgage rates are back above 4% and have jumped the most in the last week for 16 months.
Read More @ goldmoney.com
Watch The Bernank And Tax Cheat Geithner Lie...oop's...Testify Together On The European Financial Crisis - Is There A Plan B?
What
is more amusing than the pathological liars that are Tim Geithner or
Ben Bernanke testifying to congress? Both of them testifying at the
same time. Such as now. From C-Span: Treasury Secretary "Tax Cheat" Timothy Geithner
and Federal Reserve Chairman The Bernank go before the House
Oversight and Government Reform Committee Wednesday to discuss lessons
learned from Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. In a hearing titled,
“Europe’s Sovereign Debt Crisis: Causes, Consequences for the United
States and Lessons Learned,” both financial chiefs will share their personal experiences.
Since the crisis, the Federal Reserve has assisted foreign
counterparts by provide monetary support. In November, the Fed and it's
worldwide counterparts announced a cut in the interest rate premium
charged to over seas banks which borrow in dollars. The monetary
policy targeted struggling European banks. In a Senate hearing earlier
this year, leading economists also testified on the European debt
crisis and the outlook for the eurozone. They said that the U.S. should
treat the crisis as a wake-up call and urged lawmakers to bring down
debt and spending to sustainable levels.
from theeconomiccollapseblog:
The Bernank has decided that he needs to teach all of us why the Federal Reserve is good for America and about why the gold standard is bad. On Tuesday, The Bernank delivered the first of four planned lectures to a group of students at George Washington University. But that lecture was not just for the benefit of those students. Officials at the Fed have long planned for this lecture series to be an opportunity for The Bernank to “educate” the American people about the Federal Reserve. The classroom was absolutely packed with reporters and just about every major news organization is running a story about this first lecture. So the Federal Reserve is definitely getting the publicity that it was hoping for. You can see the slides from the presentation that The Bernank gave to the students right here. It is pretty obvious that one of the primary goals of this first lecture was to attack those that have been critical of the Fed over the past few years. In doing so, The Bernank “stretched” the truth on more than one occasion.
Read More @ theeconomiccollapseblog.com
The Bernank has decided that he needs to teach all of us why the Federal Reserve is good for America and about why the gold standard is bad. On Tuesday, The Bernank delivered the first of four planned lectures to a group of students at George Washington University. But that lecture was not just for the benefit of those students. Officials at the Fed have long planned for this lecture series to be an opportunity for The Bernank to “educate” the American people about the Federal Reserve. The classroom was absolutely packed with reporters and just about every major news organization is running a story about this first lecture. So the Federal Reserve is definitely getting the publicity that it was hoping for. You can see the slides from the presentation that The Bernank gave to the students right here. It is pretty obvious that one of the primary goals of this first lecture was to attack those that have been critical of the Fed over the past few years. In doing so, The Bernank “stretched” the truth on more than one occasion.
Read More @ theeconomiccollapseblog.com
Guest Post: What Kind Of Power Should Government Have Over Your Life?
The concept of government power is a strange and complex cipher. The existence of governments has always been predicated on assumptions of necessity, but few societies have ever truly considered what those necessities might be. What is government actually good for? What do they do that is so important? And, what happens when a government fails in the roles and duties that a culture deems vital? We tend to view government as an inevitability of life, but the fact is, government is NOT a force of nature, it is a creation of man, and it can be dismantled by men just as easily as it can be established. In America, many people see government as an extension of the Republic, or even the source, and an animal that feeds at the behest of the common citizen. An often heard argument against the idea of drastic change or even rebellion within the establishment system is the assertion that the government “is us”. That it is made of Americans, by Americans, and for Americans. That there is no separation between the public, and the base of power. This is, of course, a childish and fantastical delusion drawn from a complete lack of understanding as to how our system really operates today. How many people out there who make this argument really believe at their very core that they have any legitimate influence over the actions of the state? I wager not many… At bottom, to cling to the lie that the government as it stands is a construct of the people is an act of pure denial designed to help the lost masses cope with underlying feelings of utter powerlessness.
Iran will attack to defend itself: Khamenei
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago
The West has played the SWIFT card, but the facade of its financial system is showing obvious cracks. As the depth of West's financial influence fades ever so slightly, so does its ability to resolve this issue through economic arm twisting. Iran is no pushover unless Russia and China can be motivated to look the other way. The real danger here is action driven by hubris. Headline: Iran will... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
The Death Of Risk, Or The Birth Of Risk Transfer
As
Central Banker 'risk-asset' implied-puts are perceived as having
higher and higher strike prices (i.e. allowed to fall to a lesser and
lesser extent), this chart from Sean Corrigan, shows that markets are pricing risk with lower and lower concerns.
Today's VIX opening near the recent five-year lows further reinforces
the market's apparent complacency that there is nothing to fear but
fear itself (even as Bernanke keeps his eagle-eye on data). But, just
as everyone learned with CDOs and CMOs, risk doesn't just disappear. It is transformed or transferred or spread out and as is clear in the lower pane of the chart - risky-asset 'risk' has seemingly been transferred to safe-asset 'risk'
as there is no drop in volatility among the 'safe-haven' assets of the
world such as Gold and US Treasuries. It truly is the best of times and
the worst of times as global risk takers embrace the anti-risk-reward
trade with lower risk perceived as providing higher returns - we can
only imagine how asset allocators and Modern Portfolio Theorists are
coping with their spreadsheets as correlations regime-shift and risk and
reward get flipped. Of course, we have seen this picture before and it doesn't end well
as vols flaring nature always re-appears just when you don't expect it -
but of course we will all be out before the next risk-flare erupts.Risk-Off As Buiter Reminds World About Europe
The
EURUSD, Treasuries, and European sovereign spreads had been leaking in
a risk-off direction from around 530amET this morning but European
risk assets (followed quickly by US) accelerated shortly after comments
by Citi's Willem Buiter, in a scathing Bloomberg Radio interview that
pulled no punches with regard to US and European fiscal and monetary
policy, noted Spain is 'at greater risk than ever before' of debt restructuring.
The EUR reacted quickly and started to drop - now lower on the day -
and sovereign spreads (which had been leaking gently wider) accelerated.
"Spain is the key country about which I'm most worried", Buiter added,
"and it has moved to the wrong wide of the spectrum". Simultaneously
the DAX dropped (after stabilizing at slightly positive levels from a
higher open) shifting into the red, US Treasuries went bid with the 10Y yields dropping almost 5bps from its overnight highs,
and US equity futures fell 4pts back to unch. European corporate
credit is still digesting the technicals of the roll and is less
reactive so far though broadly speaking equities are underperforming.Mark Grant's Wake Up Call: Italy Has $211 Billion In Notional Exposure To Derivatives, And Other Trivia
It was nothing more than a footnote in the Morgan Stanley financials; a $3.4 billion pay-out by Italy to settle a derivatives contract made in 1994. Say goodbye to 50% of the tax hikes imposed by the Monti government because that is what was wiped out by this payment. It is also interesting to note that that Mario Draghi, currently President of the European Central Bank, was the Director-General of the Italian Treasury when this derivative was formulated. Then comes the bomb, only mentioned in a brief article yesterday on Bloomberg, and not noted anywhere in the Press this morning. Marco Rossi Doria, an undersecretary in Monti’s administration, tasked with responding to a parliamentary interrogation on derivatives, admitted that the Italian Treasury had $211 billion in "notional" exposure to derivatives, which is around eleven percent (11%) of Italy’s total GDP. This new exposure, coupled with the work I did a few days ago and noted in my commentary of March 17, now brings Italy’s actual debt to GDP ratio to a whopping 144.3%.Roughly at the same time Francesco Garzarelli fired the first warning shot against Treasurys on January 23, 2012, telling 'clients' that "We are now of the view that a break to the upside, to 2.25-2.50%, is likely and recommend going tactically short. Using Mar-12 futures contracts, which closed on Friday at 130-08, we would aim for a target of 126-00 and stops on a close above 132-00" a trade which has largely worked which means that the Goldman counter-axe is hurting big (although following the trade snap yesterday this may be over for now), the firm's Peter Oppenheimer started drafting a magnum opus, making a 40 page case, chock full of graphs, charts, bullet points, and footnotes, iPad optimized and likely coming to a Kindle near you, desperate to convince clients to sell their bonds to Goldman, and to buy all of Goldman's inventory of stocks from the firm because "After more than a decade of de-rating, equities are implying unrealistically large declines in growth and returns into the future." As a reminder, this is a deja vu repeat of precisely the same trade that Goldman enacted back in 2011... and then back in 2010... and each of those times was accompanied by lots of pretty charts and fancy bullets. Will this time be different, and is the proper call, as usual, to trade alongside Goldman (sell equities, buy bonds), or to do what Goldman tells the muppets to do? You decide.
Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: March 21
Going into the US open, most major European bourses are trading in modest positive territory this follows the publication of a Goldman Sachs research note titled “The Long Good Buy” in which the bank outlines its thoughts that equities will embark on an upward trend over the next few years, recommending dropping fixed-income securities. We have also seen the publication of the Bank of England’s minutes from March’s rate-setting meeting in which board members voted unanimously to keep the base rate unchanged at 0.50%; however there was some indecision concerning the total QE, with members Miles and Posen voting for a further increase to GBP 350bln, however the other seven members voted against the increase. Following the release, GBP/USD spiked lower 35 pips but has regained in recent trade and is now in positive territory. Looking elsewhere in the session, UK Chancellor Osborne will present his budget for this financial year at 1230GMT. We will also be looking out for US existing home sales and the weekly DOE inventories.Frontrunning: March 21
- So much for that: Obama to fast track southern portion of Keystone XL Pipeline (1600 Report)
- French Police Say They Have Cornered Suspect in School Shooting (NYT); French shooting suspect had been arrested in Afghanistan (Reuters); Suspect in French shootings says he’ll surrender to end standoff (Globe & Mail), Toulouse suspect escaped from Kandahar jail in mass Taliban jailbreak in 2008 (BBC)
- Bernanke Says Europe Must Aid Banks Even as Strains Ease (Bloomberg)
- Monti faces clash with unions over reform (FT)
- UK budget to balance tax breaks with austerity (Reuters)
- Romney scores big win over Santorum in Illinois (Reuters)
- U.S. Exempts Japan, 10 EU Nations From Iran Oil Sanctions (Bloomberg)
- Bernanke Says Fed Failed to Meet Goals During Great Depression (Bloomberg)
- Revised tax deal reached on Swiss accounts (FT)
by Gary North, Lew Rockwell:
China Syndrome 2: A Run on the US Treasury
The China Syndrome (1979) was a movie on the threat of a nuclear power plant’s core meltdown. The phrase was said to refer to the core of the plant’s falling all the way to China. The producers were blessed by the March 28 Three Mile Island nuclear power plant emergency, which for a time looked extremely serious. The movie was released on March 16.
There is another China syndrome, also associated with a meltdown. This would be triggered by the central bank of China’s doing nothing.
To understand how this could happen, it is useful to see how a similar scenario took place in 2008.
Read More @ Lewrockwell.com
“In
our dreams, people yield themselves with perfect docility to our
molding hands. The present education conventions of intellectual and
character education fade from their minds, and, unhampered by tradition,
we work our own good will upon a grateful and responsive folk.” – John D. Rockefeller
by Aaron Klein, WND:
The Department of Education has partnered with billionaire George Soros’ Open Society Institute to promote a global education initiative that seeks “a world where each and every person on Earth can access and contribute to the sum of all human knowledge.”
Education Secretary Arne Duncan kicked off a $25,000 “Why Open Education Matters” competition that will give a cash prize for the best short video explaining the benefits of what is known as Open Educational Resources, or O.E.R., for students, teachers and schools.
O.E.R. is a form of global teaching that uses digital materials made available free through open licenses, which allow uses of the materials that would not be easily permitted under copyright alone.
Read More @ wnd.com
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China Syndrome 2: A Run on the US Treasury
The China Syndrome (1979) was a movie on the threat of a nuclear power plant’s core meltdown. The phrase was said to refer to the core of the plant’s falling all the way to China. The producers were blessed by the March 28 Three Mile Island nuclear power plant emergency, which for a time looked extremely serious. The movie was released on March 16.
There is another China syndrome, also associated with a meltdown. This would be triggered by the central bank of China’s doing nothing.
To understand how this could happen, it is useful to see how a similar scenario took place in 2008.
Read More @ Lewrockwell.com
by Aaron Klein, WND:
The Department of Education has partnered with billionaire George Soros’ Open Society Institute to promote a global education initiative that seeks “a world where each and every person on Earth can access and contribute to the sum of all human knowledge.”
Education Secretary Arne Duncan kicked off a $25,000 “Why Open Education Matters” competition that will give a cash prize for the best short video explaining the benefits of what is known as Open Educational Resources, or O.E.R., for students, teachers and schools.
O.E.R. is a form of global teaching that uses digital materials made available free through open licenses, which allow uses of the materials that would not be easily permitted under copyright alone.
Read More @ wnd.com
from The American Dream:
Most people have no idea that the United Nations has been drafting an environmental constitution for the world that is intended to supersede all existing national laws. This document has a working title of “Draft International Covenant on Environment and Development” and you can read the entire thing right here. Work on this proposed world environmental constitution has been going on since 1995, and the fourth edition was issued to UN member states on September 22nd, 2010. This document is intended to become a permanent binding treaty and it would establish an incredibly repressive system of global governance. This “covenant”, as it is being called, claims authority over the entire global environment and everything that affects it. Considering the fact that everything that we do affects the environment in some way, that would mean that this document would become the highest form of law for all human activity. This proposed UN environmental constitution for the world is incredibly detailed. The U.S. Constitution only has 7 articles, but the UN document has 79 articles. If the U.S. eventually ratifies this treaty, any national, state or local laws that conflict with this covenant will be null and void. This is potentially one of the greatest threats to our national sovereignty that we have ever seen and we need to warn the American people about it.
Essentially what this proposed environmental covenant does is it takes the sustainable development principles underlying Agenda 21 and turns them into global constitutional law.
Read More @ endoftheamericandream.com
Most people have no idea that the United Nations has been drafting an environmental constitution for the world that is intended to supersede all existing national laws. This document has a working title of “Draft International Covenant on Environment and Development” and you can read the entire thing right here. Work on this proposed world environmental constitution has been going on since 1995, and the fourth edition was issued to UN member states on September 22nd, 2010. This document is intended to become a permanent binding treaty and it would establish an incredibly repressive system of global governance. This “covenant”, as it is being called, claims authority over the entire global environment and everything that affects it. Considering the fact that everything that we do affects the environment in some way, that would mean that this document would become the highest form of law for all human activity. This proposed UN environmental constitution for the world is incredibly detailed. The U.S. Constitution only has 7 articles, but the UN document has 79 articles. If the U.S. eventually ratifies this treaty, any national, state or local laws that conflict with this covenant will be null and void. This is potentially one of the greatest threats to our national sovereignty that we have ever seen and we need to warn the American people about it.
Essentially what this proposed environmental covenant does is it takes the sustainable development principles underlying Agenda 21 and turns them into global constitutional law.
Read More @ endoftheamericandream.com
by Joseph T. Salerno Lew Rockwell:
Under cover of its multiplicity of fabricated wars on drugs, terror, tax evasion, and organized crime, the US government has long been waging a hidden war on cash. One symptom of the war is that the largest denomination of US currency is the $100 note, whose ever-eroding purchasing power is far below the purchasing power of the €500 note. US currency used to be issued in denominations running up to $10,000 (including also $500; $1,000; $5,000 notes). There was even a $100,000 note issued for transactions among Federal Reserve banks. The United States stopped printing large denomination notes in 1945 and officially discontinued their issuance in 1969, when the Fed began removing them from circulation. Since then the largest currency note available to the general public has a face value of $100. But since 1969, the inflationary monetary policy of the Fed has caused the US dollar to depreciate by over 80 percent, so that a $100 note in 2010 possessed a purchasing power of only $16.83 in 1969 dollars. That is less purchasing power than a $20 bill in 1969!
Despite this enormous depreciation, the Federal Reserve has steadfastly refused to issue notes of larger denomination. This has made large cash transactions extremely inconvenient and has forced the American public to make much greater use than is optimal of electronic-payment methods. Of course, this is precisely the intent of the US government. The purpose of its ongoing breach of long-established laws regarding financial privacy is to make it easier to monitor the economic affairs and abrogate the financial privacy of its citizens, ostensibly to secure their safety from Colombian drug lords, Al Qaeda operatives, and tax cheats and other nefarious white-collar criminals.
Read More @ lewrockwell.com
Under cover of its multiplicity of fabricated wars on drugs, terror, tax evasion, and organized crime, the US government has long been waging a hidden war on cash. One symptom of the war is that the largest denomination of US currency is the $100 note, whose ever-eroding purchasing power is far below the purchasing power of the €500 note. US currency used to be issued in denominations running up to $10,000 (including also $500; $1,000; $5,000 notes). There was even a $100,000 note issued for transactions among Federal Reserve banks. The United States stopped printing large denomination notes in 1945 and officially discontinued their issuance in 1969, when the Fed began removing them from circulation. Since then the largest currency note available to the general public has a face value of $100. But since 1969, the inflationary monetary policy of the Fed has caused the US dollar to depreciate by over 80 percent, so that a $100 note in 2010 possessed a purchasing power of only $16.83 in 1969 dollars. That is less purchasing power than a $20 bill in 1969!
Despite this enormous depreciation, the Federal Reserve has steadfastly refused to issue notes of larger denomination. This has made large cash transactions extremely inconvenient and has forced the American public to make much greater use than is optimal of electronic-payment methods. Of course, this is precisely the intent of the US government. The purpose of its ongoing breach of long-established laws regarding financial privacy is to make it easier to monitor the economic affairs and abrogate the financial privacy of its citizens, ostensibly to secure their safety from Colombian drug lords, Al Qaeda operatives, and tax cheats and other nefarious white-collar criminals.
Read More @ lewrockwell.com
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