Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Report From China: A Military Coup Has Taken Place in Beijing 

Over the night of March 19 and early morning of March 20, Bejing local time, a message about a large number of military police showing up in Beijing spread widely across microblogs in mainland China.The key figures in the action are said to be: Hu Jintao, the head of the CCP; Wen Jiabao, the premier; Zhou Yongkang, who has control of the People’s Republic of China’s police forces; and Bo Xilai, who was dismissed from his post as head of the Chongqing City Communist Party on March 15 by Wen Jiabao, after a scandal involving Bo’s former police chief.

Li Delin, who is on the editorial board of Securities Market Weekly and lives in Dongcheng District of Beijing, wrote on his microblog a report that confirmed unusual troop movements: “There are numerous army vehicles, Changan Street is continuously being controlled. There are many plainclothes police in every intersection, and some intersections even had iron fences set up.”
According to the message that went viral on China’s Internet, a military force with unknown designation quickly occupied many important places in Zhongnanhai, the Chinese leadership compound in Beijing, and Beijing in the early morning of March 20, with the cooperation of Beijing armed police.
Read More @ thedailysheeple.com




Geithner on the Debt Ceiling: How High? “A Lot. It Would Make You Uncomfortable.”

“If this were the last debt ceiling increase you could ask for, the final one, and you had to make it large enough for all current and future obligations, what would the request need to be?” Congressman Trey Gowdy (R-SC) asked Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner at a Capitol Hill hearing on Wednesday.
“I don’t know how to answer that question,” Geithner said to Gowdy. After being prodded by the Congressman, Geithner eventually told him, “It would be a lot. It would make you uncomfortable.”




SILVER is The Achilles’ Heel to the ENTIRE ECONOMIC SYSTEM





2012, 2013 & 2014

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 55 minutes ago
You should be worried about 2013, 2014 but overall 2012 won’t look so bad. - *in Opalesque* *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.* more »

 

American Companies: Some People Anticipate That Profits Cannot Get Much Better

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 3 hours ago
Profitability for american companies is at an all time high if you measure return on equity. Some people anticipate that profits cannot get much better but even if they do they can't last much longer. - *in Opalesque* *Related, iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)* *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.* more »

 

 

House Subpoenas MF Global's Assistant Treasurer O'Brien





The Ascendence of Sociopaths in US Governance 

An International Man lives and does business wherever he finds conditions most advantageous, regardless of arbitrary borders. He’s diversified globally, with passports from multiple countries, assets in several jurisdictions and his residence in yet another. He doesn’t depend absolutely on any country and regards all of them as competitors for his capital and expertise.Living as an international man used to be just an interesting possibility. But few Americans opted for it, since the US used to reward those who settled in and put down roots. In fact, it rewarded them better than any other country in the world, so there was nothing pressing about becoming an international man.Things change, however, and being rooted like a plant, at least if you have a choice, is a suboptimal strategy for surviving and prospering. Throughout history, almost every place has at some point become dangerous for those who were stuck there. It may be America’s turn.

Read More @ caseyresearch.com




Heads UP: ‘Global warming’ Gets a Rebranding

by Erica Martinson & Jonathan Allen, Politico:
Shhhh! Don’t talk about global warming!
There’s been a change in climate for Washington’s greenhouse gang, and they’ve come to this conclusion: To win, they have to talk about other topics, like gas prices and kids choking on pollutants.
More than two years since Democrats’ cap-and-trade plan died in Congress, the strategic shift represents a reluctant acknowledgment from environmentalists that they’ve lost ground by tackling global warming head-on. Their best bet now lies in a bit of a bait and switch: Help elect global warming fighters by basing campaigns on kitchen-table issues.
“You don’t have to be James Carville to figure out that talking about people’s health and the health of their children … is going to make a difference to the average voter,” Daniel Weiss, director of climate strategy at the Center for American Progress Action Fund, said.
Read More @ politico.com 




"End Of The Road" - A Teaser


Ever dreamed of getting all the fiat money skeptics together at the same time, all in the same place? Your dream has now come true, courtesy of "End of the Road - How Money Became Worthless."







Obama Now Scrambles To Approve Transcanada Pipeline... Or At Least Half Of It; Environmentalists Furious

What a difference two months of record high gas prices make. After Obama unceremoniously killed the Keystone XL pipeline proposal in January, and has since seen his popularity rating slide in inverse proportion to the surge in gas prices, which as noted yesterday have now passed $4 (still quite a bit better than Europe's $9.81 average/gallon), he is now actively seeking to fast-track its approval. Or at least half of it. Per Reuters: "President Barack Obama will issue a memo on Thursday directing federal agencies to prioritize permitting of TransCanada's southern leg of the Keystone oil pipeline, a senior White House official said on Wednesday. With his Republican opponents hammering away at the president over high gasoline prices, Obama will visit Cushing, Oklahoma on Thursday to promote his energy policies, which include support for the southern leg of the pipeline." In the meantime, enviromentalists just realized they were Corzined.




Forget Barton Biggs, David Rosenberg Has The Truth On Sideline Cash

The money-on-the-sidelines argument has reached deafening and self-confirming as anchoring bias among any and every swollen long-only manager seems to have made them ignore the realities of the situation. David Rosenberg, of Gluskin Sheff to the rescue with good old fashioned facts - as much as they might disappoint the audience. Barton Biggs quote in the USA Today article points out how bullish he is and how cash levels are very high and "idled money is ready to be put to work". However, as Rosie points out equity fund cash ratios are at a de minimus 3.6%, the same level as in the fall of 2007 and near its lowest level ever. The time when cash was heavy and 'ample' was at the market lows in 2009 when the ratio was very close to 6%. Bond fund managers, it should be noted this includes the exuberant HY funds, are now sitting on less than 2% cash so if retail inflows continue to subside as they did this week, buying power could weaken over the near-term. What David points out that is more interesting perhaps is the converse of most people's contrarian dumb money perspective - the household sector appears to have used the rally of the past three years, for the most part, to diversify out of the equity market (getting out at price levels they could only dream of seeing again). As we have pointed out again and again, the retail investor has been a net redeemer in equity funds for nine-months running and has been rebalancing since the March 2009 lows in a clearly demographic shift towards income strategies as the memory of two bursting bubbles within seven years is seared into most private investors' minds.




Diamond Foods Announces Temporary Loan Forbearance As Vultures Begin Circling

That Diamond Foods is a dead man walking has been known for a while. Today we merely got the latest confirmation, after the company announced that it has reached a forbearance deal with its lender through June 18, in exchange for suspending dividends (duh) as well as a one time 25 bps loan fee, and an interest increase by 75 bps until June 18. At that point the company will still have to find a replacement facility, or do another forebearance deal which extracts even more equity value and hands it on a silver platter to secured creditors... kinda like Greece. Curiously, moments before close the market reacted like a stung HFT algo (see chart below) to a headline from the WSJ that "Diamond Foods in Talks With PE for Minority Investment." Sure it is - the problem is that any minority investment at this point will likely come below market, as this is not an M&A deal but a vulture equity financing. In fact, we would not be surprised if the lenders are contemplated a debt for equity exchange. However, for it to make sense, the stock would have to be far lower. Anyway, the stock reopens at 5:15pm. Stay tuned.




"Dumb Money" Refuses To Be The Dumb Money For Yet Another Week

Goldman screams it is a generational buy, Larry Fink goes all in stocks, Notorious BIGGS is 90% long, anchors on comedy-financial fusion channels are channeling the producer in their earpiece and screaming at the teleprompter to "sell bonds and buy stocks", even as stocks are at their highest in nearly 5 years and... what happens? In the latest week, ICI just reported that domestic equity retail funds just saw another $2.9 billion outflow, the 4th consecutive in a row, and the 23 of out 27 outflows during the entire parabolic blow off top phase the market has undergone since October, and instead put another $9 billion in fixed income funds "soaring" yields be damned. What does this mean? Probably that the stock ramp is about to get uber-parabolic for the simple reason that this is the only thing left in the status quo's arsenal - to keep doing the same old same old, hoping for a different outcome, because this time it's different. Only this time the dumb money either doesn't have the cash to burn, or just doesn't want to participate in a rigged, corrupt, centrally-planned market. Whatever the case, the Primary Dealers and the Fed will just have to keep hoping more central banks pull a Bank of Israel and sell the hot grenade axes to them, since Joe Sixpack is done being the "dumb money."




Treasuries Surge Leaving Equities Running On Fumes

Volumes in cash equities (NYSE) and futures (ES) were on the low-side for the year today but what was shocking and perhaps the sign that this rally has run out of real-money to push it higher is that fact that today saw the lowest average trade size in the S&P 500 e-mini futures contract of the year. This follows the peak (in average trade size of the entire rally) on Friday as stocks bump up against the March 2009 low up-trendline. We can't help but feel the professionals (who will tend to trade in larger size) are leaving the building rapidly with only the algos and correlations to hold this up for now (as Treasuries start to lag back down) as we note (h/t John Lohman) that this was the 6th lowest relative range in cash S&P for the year. The sell-off into the close dragged stocks back in line with broad risk (as CONTEXT had underperformed all day) as well as credit and vol markets as 10Y Treasuries rallied the most in two weeks now lower in yield for the week (and flatter). Oil outperformed as the USD meandered higher (and JPY stronger) while commodities were generally quiet. Credit was weak - led by HYG - as IG remains the up-in-quality favorite (though suffered a little from its richness today) as VIX dropped and its term structure flattened modestly led by the longer-end.




Waking Up To A Third Consecutive False Dawn For Stocks With Charles Biderman

It appears we are, as a nation of desperately consuming investors, becoming increasingly cognitively dissonant. Charles Biderman, of TrimTabs, leaves the ominous clouds of the Bay Area for New York City and addresses our seemingly Pavlovian response for the third year in a row to a rising stock market (flooded with portfolio-rebalancing duration-destroying Central Bank money) as evidence that the real economy must be doing great. Of course, relying on tried and true facts such as real job growth and real wage growth and understanding the seasonally-abused-adjusted housing data realities, Biderman notes that the only money driving stocks up is corporate buybacks dominating selling pressure. While modestly bullish on these flows, he is growing more anxious. He sees insider selling surging (from 5:1 January to 14:1 February to 35:1 in March), there has been no new 'cash-takeovers' announced this month compared to $15bn per month last year, and the IPO pipeline is ramping up fast (supply will dominate demand) as the end of Operation Twist approaches removing yet another prop to the perceived reality of stocks.




Tail Risk Hedging 101: Credit


With volatility so low and risk seemingly removed from any- and every-one's vernacular, perhaps it is time to refresh our perspective on downside and tail-risk concerns. While most think only in terms of equity derivatives as serving to create a tail-wagging-the-dog type of reflexive move, there is a growing and increasingly liquid (just like the old days with CDOs, so be warned) market for options on CDS. Concentrated in the major and most liquid indices, swaption volumes have risen notably as have gross and net notional outstandings. Puts and Calls on credit risk - known as Payers and Receivers (Payers being the equivalent of a put option on a bond, or call option on its spread) have been actively quoted since 2006 but the last 2-3 years has seen their popularity increase as a 'cheap' way to protect (or take on) credit risk - most specifically tail risk scenarios. Morgan Stanley recently published another useful primer on these instruments - as the sell-side's new favorite wide-margin offering to wistful buy-siders and wannabe quants - noting the three main uses for swaptions as Hedging, Upside, and Yield Enhancement. These all have their own nuances but as spreads compress and managers look for ever more inventive ways to add yield so the specter of negative gamma appears - chasing markets up into rallies and down into sell-offs - and the inevitable rips and gaps this causes can wreak havoc in markets that have momentum anyway. Given the leverage and average notionals involved, understanding this seemingly niche space may become very important if we see another tail risk flare and as the Fed knows only too well (as it suggested here) like selling Treasury Putsderivatives on credit are for more effective at establishing directional moves in the the underlying than simple open market operations.




Treja Vu: Albert Edwards Expects New Lows On Bond Yields, Equity Rally Turning To Dust, "Just As It Did In 2011"


Nothing that we haven't said already many times, but always good to hear someone, in this case SocGen's Albert Edwards, observe what is patently obvious - namely that the start of every year now sends a consistently wrong signal that the economy is improving due to seasonal adjustments that no longer are applicable in the New Normal. This coupled with the liquidity boost that takes places just prior to each and every run up completely explains why 2012 is not only deja vu, as it continues to be a carbon copy replica of 2011 (when the market peaked in late April), but is really a treja vu, mimicking the action of 2010. After all it was none other than Reuters who in its puff spin piece tried to caution readers that we have been here before: "This time last year, the U.S. economy was adding jobs at a similar pace of more than 200,000 a month between February and April...Growth was nipped in the bud by the Arab uprising, which sent oil prices soaring. In 2010, prospects had looked even stronger. Between March and May, companies were adding a net 309,000 new jobs each month, and first-quarter growth came in at a 2.7 percent. The rebound proved temporary." And yet here we are, wondering if this time it's different. It isn't. Albert Edwards explains: 'With bond yields breaking out to the upside and the equity bull run continuing, investors are back to their same old hopeful habits. Many are thinking that if we have seen the all-time lows on bond yields investors will be forced into equities. We already can observe leading indicators rolling downwards in exactly the same way as they did in 2011." And here is why Edwards will once again be unpopular with the permabull, momentum chasing crowd: "Expect new lows on bond yields by Q3 and this equity rally to turn to dust – just as it did in 2011."




McKinsey Releases 72 Page Paperweight On "Greece In 10 Years"


Just because bailing out the ECB is not enough for Europe's (and now America's) long-suffering taxpayers, it also makes sense to throw in the occasional McKinsey paperweight in there, in this case the following 72 page behemoth titled "Greece 10 Years Ahead" which was issued in March 2010. Where does it come from - it "was jointly sponsored by McKinsey & Company, the Hellenic Bank Association (HBA) and the Hellenic Federation of Enterprises (SEV)." Translated: thank you taxpayers. Unfortunately, since the study "took place between December 2010 and October 2011" it is hopelessly wrong, inaccurate, and outright misleading. But at least it provides a pretty brochure to throw around around conference tables when eurocrats decide how to best spend even more taxpayer cash.




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