“A mere
demarcation on parchment of the constitutional limits (of government) is
not a sufficient guard against those encroachments which lead to a
tyrannical concentration of all the powers of government in the same
hands.” - James Madison, Federalist Paper #48, 1788.
President Obama signed an Executive Order for “National Defense” yesterday that claims executive authority to seize all US resources and persons, including during peacetime, for self-declared “national defense.”
The EO claims power to place any American into military or “allocated” labor use (analysis here and here).
“American exceptionalism” is the belief that a 200+ year-old parchment in the National Archives has magical powers to somehow guarantee limited government from 1% tyranny, despite the specific and clear warnings of the US Founders, despite world history of repeated oligarchic/1% tyranny claiming to be for the “good of the people,” and despite US history’s descent into vicious psychopathy (short version here: US war history in 2 minutes) hidden in plain view with paper-thin corporate media propaganda.
Read More @ WashingtonsBlog.com
Operation Twist Is Coming To An End: A Preview Of The Market Response
As macro data trends deteriorate and Dudley demurs,
it is becoming increasingly clear that the risks for the US equity
market are skewed to the downside as we head towards the end of
Operation Twist (and seasonal factors subside). The Fed's 'upgrade' from
modest to moderate growth certainly spooked Gold and Treasuries and
saw small caps notably underperform but given historical precedence, if Operation Twist ends without a new program beginning, investors will likely expect a drop in equities (broadly) of 8-10%
(which coincides with the QE1 and QE2 ends as well as the 1983, 1994,
and 2003 normalizations in policy). Reiterating our recent theme, in
order to avoid the end of Operation Twist, the Fed's economic outlook
would need to deteriorate - which itself is a scenario likely to result
in falling stock prices and just as the cause of a 'crash' in PCE
towards the end of QE1 and QE2 was a function of higher inflation, we
have the current spike in energy prices to ensure this time is no
different.Source Links for Today’s Items:
Well folks, Obama is issued the National
Defense Resources Preparedness Executive Order. Which is an update of
earlier executive orders that now includes the Department of Homeland
Insecurity that did not exist before. In short, this executive order
essentially allows the U.S. government to nationalize… Everything.
The spectacular implosion of the “Stop
Kony 2012″ campaign shows the impact of alternate media. Alex Jones led
the charge that focused on the disinformation in the “Invisible
Children” effort. No amount of acting by Obama’s friend, George Clooney
could eclipse the public masturbation of the video’s creator and the
facts that shed light on false flag that had an African invasion as the
primary goal. Is it any wonder that the mainstream media is losing the
information war?
The Newspaper Association of America has
shown that advertising sales have halved since 2005 and are now at 1984
level’s. The Newspaper industry may be the fastest-shrinking industry
measured by jobs lost. Soon, it may be hard to find a newspaper to
fulfill its primary roll of lining the bottom of a birdcage.
Egon von Greyerz states that in the past
eleven years, for every dollar of debt created only six cents of GDP has
been generated. Essentially, what is happening is a the law of
diminishing returns. In the past 10 years, the world’s debt has gone
from 80 to 200 trillion dollars. , or 140% increase. He goes on to say
that QE will start again and the there will be a big upward move in gold
and silver; therefore, keep stacking!
Next…
California Imploding Just Like Greece
http://www.economicnoise.com
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
California Imploding Just Like Greece
http://www.economicnoise.com
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
In Feb 2012, California income tax
receipts are down $328 million y-o-y, or 16.5%. In total, year over
year state income has plunged 22.55%. California politicians are
delusional, as businesses leave in droves, that high taxes have nothing
to do with the economic situation. But remember this, as Taxifornia
goes, so goes the Country. At least California pensions are safe…
Stockton California could file for
Chapter 9 bankruptcy in June. This may put pensions under the sword, to
cut the city’s debt. This may spread to other localities and place
pensions on the chopping block.
Protein powder could be an excellent
source of calories and protein in a disaster situations. It requires no
refrigeration even after opening. It requires no further preparation
than putting it in a jar with liquid and shaking it. It can take the
place of meals if necessary. Something to consider folks.
Ron Paul receives a rock star reception;
however, don’t count on the press reporting on it. Ron Paul said, to
cheering crowds, that the Patriot Act should not have passed and that we
have a reasonably good constitution. Meanwhile, Rick Santorium, in
Kansas, had a whopping 150 people show up to his event and the GOP
leader, Mitt Romney, had a handful at his appearance in St. Louis. And
people actually still believe that the election is not rigged. Right!
Finally, Please prepare now for the escalating economic and social unrest. Good Day
Central Banks: These Actions Will Have Consequences
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 1 hour ago
First of all, I do not believe that the central banks around the world will
ever, and I repeat ever, reduce their balance sheets. They’ve gone the path
of money printing and once you choose that path you’re in it, and you have
to print more money.
In the short term, it has been working to some extent in the sense that
equity prices are up and interest rates are down. And, so companies can
issue bonds at extremely low rates. But every money printing exercise in
the world leads to unintended consequences at a later point. And, this is
the important issue to remember. We don’t know yet... more »
Video: A Recent Radio Interview
Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 1 hour ago
A recent radio interview with Everything Financial.
*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful
international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New
York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The
Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*
More than 20,000 California teachers pink-slipped
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago
Pink slips in the public sector are not restricted to California. This is
happening all across the country and is reinforcing a vicious downward
cycle that the private sector cannot absorb. Headline: More than 20,000
California teachers pink-slipped More than 20,000 public school teachers in
California opened their mailboxes over the last few days to find a pink
slip inside as districts met...
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Damning the Demimonde: Thomas Frank Versus the Oligarchs' Enablers
Dallas Fed's Fisher Exhibits Peak Cognitive Dissonance And Self-Delusion
For today's definitive example of peak cognitive dissonance and self-delusion among those who determine the monetary fate of the world no less, look no further than the Dallas Fed's Dick Fisher, who just said the following according to Reuters:- No one presently believes that the Fed is going to proceed with QE3
- No decision yet on QE3, New York Fed's Dudley says
Guest Post: Asleep At The Wheel
Americans have an illogical love affair with their vehicles. There are 209 million licensed drivers in the U.S. and 260 million vehicles. The U.S. has a higher number of motor vehicles per capita than every country in the world at 845 per 1,000 people. Germany has 540; Japan has 593; Britain has 525; and China has 37. The population of the United States has risen from 203 million in 1970 to 311 million today, an increase of 108 million in 42 years. Over this same time frame, the number of motor vehicles on our crumbling highways has grown by 150 million. This might explain why a country that has 4.5% of the world’s population consumes 22% of the world’s daily oil supply. This might also further explain the Iraq War, the Afghanistan occupation, the Libyan “intervention”, and the coming war with Iran. Automobiles have been a vital component in the financial Ponzi scheme that has passed for our economic system over the last thirty years. For most of the past thirty years annual vehicle sales have ranged between 15 million and 20 million, with only occasional drops below that level during recessions. They actually surged during the 2001-2002 recession as Americans dutifully obeyed their moron President and bought millions of monster SUVs, Hummers, and Silverado pickups with 0% financing from GM to defeat terrorism. Alan Greenspan provided the fuel, with ridiculously low interest rates. The Madison Avenue media maggots provided the transmission fluid by convincing millions of willfully ignorant Americans to buy or lease vehicles they couldn’t afford. And the financially clueless dupes pushed the pedal to the metal, until everyone went off the cliff in 2008.
Art Cashin On Unadjusted Payroll Seasonal Adjustments
We (and Charles Biderman) have previously discussed the
seasonal adjustments to NFP data, which while potentially credible in a
releveraging context, is far less meaningful when used on apples to
apples basis for months in which there is material wholesale
deleveraging and record warm weather. Yet the rub lies precisely in the
seasonal adjustment, which for January and February has "added" nearly 4
million jobs based on nothing but historical regression patterns, and
the "beats" represented less than 5% of the total addition, implying
even a modest miscalculcation would have had a huge impact on market,
and political, interpretation of the data (as explained here). Today, it is the turn of Art Cashin, quoting Lakshman Achuthan, to provide his take on "unadjusted seasonal adjustments."
Macro Data Weakening On Seasonal Unwinds
Much
has been made of the positive impact that seasonal adjustments have
made to the crop of supposedly better than expected macro prints that
remain anecdotal evidence of why the S&P 500 is trading above 1400
again. Unfortunately the pleasant after-glow of a time-series-based
adjustment that has become increasingly unstable and hard to justify
post-crisis is starting to fade. Morgan Stanley's Business Condition Index dropped a very significant 5 points in March to 51%. Just as pointed out here (in Bernanke's scariest chart) the seasonal
factors are almost entirely responsible as the trend of recent data is
just not meeting expectations (both in analyst and market perceptions).
Under the surface, things are a little gloomier also as their Hiring
Plans Index dropped for the first time in six months and the business
conditions expectations plummeted 11 points to 57% in March. Given this
(leading) data, is it any wonder MS believes QE3 is inevitable and
imminent? Though as we have noted again and again, until the market
starts to get the sad joke that unless market momentum chasers start to
defect from the current strategy, we suspect the impact of QE3 (if it
comes) will be far more muted (in stocks) than the previous acts of
exuberance by the Fed (and their buddies) - as implicitly the cost of
the much-higher-than-normal strike price of Bernanke's put means
ever-increasing QE needs to counter underlying weakness/perception.AAPL Unhalts Red (Under $580)
UPDATE: As call begins AAPL is trading $592
After hitting $605 in pre-market, and halting at $599.32, we see AAPL reopened at $580 -down from Friday's close. Volume is relatively low, so we can assume AAPL is not buying its stock just yet. More importantly, could this be the start of rotation from hedge funds to dividend funds?
Apple Announces $10 Billion Share Repurchase Program, $2.65 Quarterly Dividend, Plans To Spend $45 Billion Over 3 Years
And so Steve Jobs legacy is now gone as Apple goes Jamie Dimon. At least Apple was not part of the stress test. And as announced yesterday, we for one, can't wait to find out if it was JPM that advised Apple, to pull a JPM. Finally, we hope that AAPL's cash creation rate remains the same, as $45 billion in 3 years may put quite a large dent on the company's onshore cash, which according to reports is one-third of total.Some Ominous Developments In Europe
For now, these are isolated incidents. But in Europe events of this kind have an unpleasant tendency of recurring just when it is darkest...- There is no Spanish siesta for the eurozone (FT)
- Greece over halfway to recovery, says PM (FT) - inspired comedy...
- Sarkozy Trims Gap With Rival, Polls Show (WSJ) - Diebold speaks again
- IMF’s Zhu Sees ‘Soft-Landing’ Even as Property Slides: Economy (Bloomberg)
- Obama Uses Lincoln to Needle Republicans Battling in Illinois (Bloomberg)
- Three shot dead outside Jewish school in France (Reuters)
- Osborne Seeks to End 50% Tax Spat With Pledge to Aid U.K. Poor (Bloomberg)
- Monti to Meet Labor Unions Amid Warning of Continued Euro Crisis (Bloomberg)
Key Events In The Week Ahead
This week brings policy decisions in Taiwan and Thailand. The CBC decision will be very interesting to watch. The December statement at the time was surprisingly hawkish, only to be followed by a large upside surprise in inflation, and the TWD was subsequently allowed to appreciate. Given that the bank continues to view inflation as a major problem, according to quotes from Reuters, it will be very interesting to see how the bank weighs up concerns about hot money inflows vs the need to contain inflation risks. In particular, in the face of imported inflation pressures via higher commodity prices, many central banks may shift towards accepting the need for more currency strength. The week also brings some important central bank commentary. The RBA governor has an opportunity to opine on the recent slew of weak Australian data, as well as developments in the A$. There is quite a bit of commentary from Fed officials on the docket, including from Bernanke, which we will dissect for information on the further direction of policy. More dovish commentary than that of the FOMC last week, would arguably be a surprise and potentially dampen, if not reverse some of the moves of last week.Greek Initial CDS Auction Results: Initial Bond Midpoint 21.75
The results from the Greek CDS auction are starting to come in (the full calendar can be found here). Moments ago ISDA, via Creditfixings.com released the initial results of the Auction, which indicate a preliminary market midpoint based on bids and offers of the defaulted bonds of 21.75, which is roughly in line with where bonds had been trading ahead of the PSI completion, if a little higher than the Cheapest to Deliver, indicating some modest upside to those who bought the CTDs in the final days. The Net Open Interest going into the bidding period which begins at 13:30 GMT and lasts for 30 minutes is a modest €291.6 million, with an offer-heavy side. Then final results will become pulbic in 4:30 hours, at 15:30 GMT.Once again, a full generic run down of the whole physical settlement process can be found here. Finally, what's with the RBS "Adjustment Amount": did the bank once again forget there is a difference between "discount" and "price"? Nothing less would surprise coming from the world's most incompetent bank.I hope your taking advantage of our new sponsors, they were chosen to help you prepare for the coming global financial collapse...If you wait until TSHTF (the shi! hits the fan) it will be too late...
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