Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Whispers on Wall Street: Major Financial House Is Going to Implode… Could It Be Morgan Stanley?

by Mac Slavo, SHTFPlan:
Before the collapse of mega behemoth Bear Stearns there were rumors that a major Wall Street firm had bitten off more than it could chew. Mainstream media, for the most part, completely ignored the rumors, with some financial experts like CNBC’s premier Wall Street insider Jim Cramer literally screaming at viewers on the March 11, 2008 airing of Mad Money in which he vehemently denied any problems saying that the company was “fine.”
Just a few days later Bear Stearns collapsed into heap of rubble and was offered up for sale at just $2 a share to JP Morgan Chase. This incident is widely believed to have been the catalyst that kicked off what we now refer to as the sub prime mortgage collapse.
In the last few months we’ve started receiving signals similar to what contrarian observers were seeing prior to the Bear Stearns collapse.

Read More @ SHTFPlan.com



The Bernank At J-Hole: What He Will Say And What He Won't

With Draghi stepping aside, the headliner can shine and while Goldman does not expect TheBernank's speech on Friday morning, entitled "Monetary Policy Since the Crisis", to shed much additional light on the near-term tactics of monetary policy beyond last week's FOMC minutes; their main question is whether he breaks new ground regarding the Fed's longer-term strategy. An aggressive approach would be to signal that the committee is moving closer to the "unconventional unconventional" easing options that Goldman has been ever-so-generously advocating for months, although even they have to admit that expectations are that any moves in this direction will be gingerly.



Art Cashin On Draghi Leaving A Hole In J-Hole

With economies faltering fast; ministers to cajole; and 'promised' plans going pear-shaped by the second; is it any wonder that Mario is not popping across the pond for some R&R at The Bernank's J-Hole. As the ever-avuncular Art Cashin notes, however, Mario Draghi's withdrawl as a speaker at Jackson Hole is logical and was almost inevitable as "you don't go to your best friend's daughter's wedding and upstage him at the event." One other factor that UBS's top-man notes is next week's ECB meeting - Draghi dare not say something that might complicate negotiations within the ECB (whose statement will not be postponeable).





In Defense Of Liberty Extremism


It’s a safe statement to make that when Mitt Romney is finally crowned the GOP nominee for president during the Republican National Convention, any vestige of liberty will be firmly wiped away from the ballot box come this November.  For those who have followed his campaign in the United States, Congressman Ron Paul has been swindled out of the nomination through various underhanded tricks at state conventions.  The explanation is straightforward: Paul’s views are not comfortable within the Republican Party establishment.  Today’s GOP is a party of banker interests, imperialism, and clandestine state empowerment while claiming to represent small, limited government.  Romney embraces this platform while Paul’s decades-long voting record stands in opposition. For towing the party line, Romney has been anointed the “electable” candidate while Paul has been deemed an extremist.



Vietnam: The Market Is Now Relatively Inexpensive

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 6 minutes ago
The arrests will provide long-term investors with a buying opportunity. The market is now relatively inexpensive. - *in Bloomberg* Related: Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM) *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.* 
 

Silver Also Talking

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago
Silver is also talking. Silver’s REV(E), a measure of trend energy, established a higher low in July despite a lower low in price. This non-confirmation of price or positive divergence illustrates accumulation. Momentum traders, following a similar setup in gold, await an upside breakout of May 2011 downtrend. Chart: Silver ETF (SLV) -------------------------------------... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 
 

Considering Russia For The First Time

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 2 hours ago
I have been a pure skeptic of the Soviet Union and Russia since it broke up but I am starting to my own astonishment to look more favorably and question my own views on Russia. I am not a big investor...I am not an investor yet but I am starting to consider it for the first time in my life. - *in CNBC * Related ETFs: Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX) * **Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a r... more » 
 

The Economic Slowdown Is More Pronounced Than Official Chinese Statistics Show

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 2 hours ago
All these indicators (electricity production to Macau gaming revenues and consumer spending habits to appliance and air-conditioning volumes) do not necessarily suggest that the Chinese economy is collapsing, but they reliably do suggest that the economic slowdown is more pronounced than official Chinese statistics would have you believe. In addition, these indicators do not imply that the Chinese stock market will decline further (but it could). Perhaps the weak performance since 2008 has already discounted much of the slowdown in economic growth. - *in Market Shadows * * *Related:... more » 
 

Americans Think the Rich Are Smarter, But Greedier

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago
Here comes the useless “polls” designed to shape Americans' perceptions. Dumb and smart populate both the rich and poor. Rich may be better educated, but there’s a big distinction between information (memorization of it), knowledge, and finally wisdom. As the old saying goes, money’s got nothin’ do with it. Citizens of the world grapple with fear and greed on a daily basis. Our responses to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 
 

Investors and economists agree: No QE3

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago
When investors and economists agree, it usually means something unexpected is about to happen. QE is coming; it’s only guarantee will be few will have timed it well. The investment world likes to study economic data points or Fed meetings, so called snapshots in time, as if they alone defined the secular trends. Secular trends, however, represent a collection data points spread over long... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]



Spain: Shall Bitterly Begin His Fearful Date

The data out from Spain this morning should be one serious wake-up call for anyone exposed to Europe. The fourth largest economy in the Eurozone is getting hammered and for anyone that has doubted that they will need a full scale bailout; think again. The numbers are a disaster. One year ago the Central Bank of Spain was borrowing $71.53 billion from the European Central Bank. In the last figures available, July, the Central Bank of Spain was borrowing $530.8 billion (an increase of 86.5%) from the ECB either directly or through the Target2 funding which impacts the Bundesbank and Germany quite directly. In other words Germany is now at a huge risk which is not just their 22% ownership of the ECB but a direct and full risk of impairment or default by Spain in the Target2 funding provided by the Bundesbank.



Despite Record High Stocks, Consumer Confidence Crashes to 9 Month Low

With inflation expectations soaring and jobs plentiful relative to hard-to-get falling slightly, Consumer Confidence plunged its most in 10 months to a level not seen since November of last year. It seems that despite all the hopes and prayers priced into US equity market valuations, the US Consumer remains unimpressed, unhappy, and unemployed. Of course, the 'good is bad, bad is better' market has interpreted this as a clear QE-on flag (for this millisecond anyway).



Latest Unsourced Rumor: ECB Rate Caps OFF

Rumor - Reaction? - Denial. And so the shameful and ridiculous floating of whatever strawman argument any and every news agency will delightfully post goes on. In somewhat ironic timing, given our recent rebuttal of the likelihood of ECB rate caps/targets as anything but a failure, Reuters is reporting people familiar as saying:
  • *ECB UNLIKELY TO SET YIELD CAPS IN NEW BOND BUYING: REUTERS
Is this what Draghi is staying home for? As we noted previously it is clear that consensus is a long way away on the Governing Council. Meanwhile, it seems this is more than enough to stoke hopes of an alternative bailout as stocks rally out of the US open. Sigh.



Why The ECB's Rate Band/Target Is Not The Answer

Speculation that the ECB might, as part of its proposed bond-buying programme, announce an interest rate target (or band) for short-dated peripheral government bonds has sparked a further rally in Spanish and Italian bonds in the past week. Such an 'unlimited' move is a complete volte face from past policy, but Daiwa's research team believes hopes that the announcement of an interest rate or spread target would spare the ECB the pain of having to intervene in the markets at all are flawed in our view. For the ECB to credibly communicate an interest rate or spread target requires it to quantify the excess risk premia. Given the inherent inaccuracy (or falsehoods) of the forecasts underlying these estimates, the ECB would risk having to review these targets regularly, leaving markets uncertain about their permanence. The success and the sustainability of any future ECB interventions will ultimately depend on the peripheral governments’ ability to meet the conditionality required - and we know how that has ended up - always and every time.



Case Shiller Home Prices Beat Expectations, Rate Of Increase Slows


The tried strategy of "Baffle them with BS" continues today following the release of the June (two month delayed) Case Shiller data. Because whereas last week we showed that New Home Prices are plunging, and the average new home price just dropping to its 2012 lows, when it comes to the Case-Shiller index, things are looking up. In June, the Top 20 composite index rose by 0.94%, well above the expected increase of 0.45%. How much of this is due to the REO-to-Rental program in which we are now seeing actively securitization of rental properties, which in essence is converting more and more of the Residential market into commercial real estate, remains unclear. For now it is clear that those entities with access to cash are buying up properties in beaten down areas in hopes these will be filled by renters. On the other hand, the truth is that summer months always see the biggest pricing gains, and following the May data revision, which rose at a revised rate of 0.97%, one may observe that the pricing increase has now peaked even according to delayed CS data, and has begun its traditional rolling over pattern. And a pattern it is. As the second chart below shows very clearly, housing is now merely in the dead cat bounce phase of a broad housing quadruple dip, each one having been facilitated by either Fed or ECB intervention. We give this one a few more months before it too resumes the downward trendline so very well known to Japanese homeowners, and falls in line with the data reported by the Census department.



From Hard Landing To Train Crash, All Chinese Indicators Have Slammed On The Brakes

As Robin might say "Riddle me this Batman": how can an country, supposedly growing its economy at over 7%, with factory output up over 9%, manage all of this superlative production while rail traffic is shrinking at almost 5.4% annually?



Spain's Catalonia Region Demands €5 Billion Bailout, Will Not Tolerate Conditions

Beggars can once again be choosers. In other news, non-news (the Catalan bailout was announced at least two times before) is news again, and magically drives the amnesiac market all over again.



Chart Of The Day: For Spain, The Real Pain May Be Just Beginning


Up until now, the title of "Spain's scariest chart" belonged to one depicting its youth (and general) unemployment, both of which are so off the charts it is not even funny (especially to those millions of Spaniards who are currently unemployed). As of today we have a contender for joint ownership of said title - Spain's monthly deposit outflows, which in July hit the highest amount ever, and where the YTD deposit outflow is now the highest on record. One look at the chart below confirms that nobody in Spain got the June 29 Euro summit memo that "Europe is fixed"...



Frontrunning: August 28


  • Ringing endorsement: Lithuania to Adopt Euro When Europe Is Ready, Kubilius Says (Bloomberg)
  • Credit Agricole net plunges 67% on losses in Greece and a writedown of its stake in Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (Bloomberg)
  • Europe finally starting to smell the coffee: ECB Urging Weaker Basel Liquidity Rule on Crisis Concerns (Bloomberg)
  • Japan Cuts Economic Assessment (Reuters)
  • France’s Leclerc Stores to Sell Fuel at Cost, Chairman Says (Bloomberg)
  • China Eyes Ways to Broaden Yuan’s Use (WSJ)
  • Berlin and Paris forge union over crisis (FT)
  • Brezhnev Bonds Haunt Putin as Investors Hunt $785 Billion (Bloomberg)
  • Republicans showcase Romney as storm clouds convention (Reuters)
  • ECB official seeks to ease bond fears (FT)
  • German at European Central Bank at Odds With Country’s Policy Makers (NYT)



With September Knocking, Here Is An Annotated European Event Calendar

By now everyone is well aware that the payback for the absolute zero that was August in terms of newsflow and events, the first quiet August in three years, will be September, which as we and others dubbed, will be "Crunchtime" for Europe. And with September now just days away, and with the transitionary Jackson Hole forum virtually assured to be the latest dud, with Draghi surprisingly bowing out at the last minute (even as Buba's Jens Weidmann is still set to attend), and with Bernanke guaranteed to do nothing more than just jawbone some more without real action, the time to refresh on what to expect over the next 30 days has come, courtesy of this annotated calendar from SocGen.



Draghi To Miss Jackson Hole Forum; All Rumors Now To Focus On ECB September 6 Meeting

With the market realization slowly dawning that Bernanke will not announce anything of note at this year's Jackson Hole meeting, especially with the NFP number following the symposium expected to demonstrate another improvement in the economy, and ahead of the FOMC meeting in the second week of September, many hopes were resting on the shoulders of Draghi, whose ECB has now become a backup option when it comes to jawboning markets higher on empty promises. It is the same ECB which is also expected to announce something, anything on September 6, or else the market will really get angry after "believing" Draghi back in July as he said, and not delivering anything for two months straight. At this point however, the Jackson Hole meeting appears to be a complete dud because as was just reported, Mario Draghi, who was previously scheduled to speak on August 30, has decided to skip the meeting entirely. According to Bloomberg, citing an ECB official, Draghi won’t be attending Jackson Hole forum this year, and the reason given is "due to workload in coming days."  



Spain's Economic Collapse Results In Whopping 5% Deposit Outflow In July

Yesterday, Spain was kind enough to advise those who track its economy, that things in 2010 and 2011 were in fact worse than had been reported, following an adjustment to both 2010 and 2011 GDP "historical" data. Today, we learn that Q2 data (also pending further downward adjustments), contracted by 0.4% sequentially in Q2, in line with expectations, but somehow, and we have to figure out the math on this, the drop on a Year over Year basis was far worse than expected, printing at -1.3% on expectations of just a -1.0% decline. However, while its economic collapse is well known by all, the surprise came in the deposits department which imploded by a whopping 5% in July, plunging to 1.509 trillion euros at end-July from 1.583 trillion in the previous month. Keep in mind this is after the June 29 European summit which supposedly fixed everything. Turns out it didn't, and the people are no longer stupid enough to believe anything Europe's pathological liar politicians spew.The good news: Greek deposits saw a dead cat bounce after collapsing by ridiculous amounts in the past several years: at this point anyone who puts their money in Greek banks must surely realize that the probability of getting even one cent back is equal odds with going to Vegas and at least having a good time while watching one's money burn.



Summer Is Over With A Bang As Bomb Explodes Outside Greek Bank

If the unofficial end of the European summer season comes with the return of those 9-saying Germans who dash every carefully laid plan to stuff German taxpayers with the European bailout bill for the second year running, the official end is when the Greeks come back from their German-sponsored two week vacation in the Cyclades (soon to be known as Nieder-Niedersachsen) and start bombing things. Which is precisely what happened two hours ago. From Reuters: "A makeshift bomb exploded outside a National Bank of Greece branch in Athens early on Tuesday, causing minor damage but no injuries, police said. Windows were smashed and four parked cars suffered minor damage in the blast, which took place about 4 a.m (0100 GMT) in the western suburb of Ilion." Luckily nobody was hurt. However, it would not look good on the front page of German papers that the general Greek population is not ungrateful for the continued ECB recycling of ponzi cash, but has decided to take out an ATM machine or two, which is why... "We suspect it is linked to terrorism," said a police official who declined to be named. Sure enough, when all else fails, blame something: Bush, a glitch, or terrorism.



Another Consequence Of China's 'Ostrich' Economics: Iron Ore And Coal Set To Plunge Further

The impact of unsustainable production in Chinese Steel-making plants, to avoid the inevitable employment consequences, has created a 'glut'. This excess inventory will need to be worked through before spot Iron Ore (and Coking Coal) prices can stabilize. Morgan Stanley believes the sharp raw material price declines since mid-July followed a collapse in Chinese steel prices and aggressive margin compression. This is in turn has resulted in aggressive thrifting of raw material purchases. More recently, the price declines have accelerated with Chinese re-bar and HRC prices reaching 33-month lows. In their view, prices of steel making raw materials can recover in 4Q 2012 and in 2013, but spot prices for both iron ore and coking coal first have to fall below the marginal cost of seaborne (not Chinese) production to  drive out the short-term supply overhang - Iron Ore prices could fall 17% further before this 'stabilization' and spot coking coal over 8% from current levels.






Today’s Items:

First…
Germany Loses Confidence For The Fourth Month In A Row
http://www.zerohedge.com

http://www.spiegel.de
As the European double, and in some cases triple, dip, continues to take its toll, German companies are worried about the medium-term outlook.   The actions of policy makers in the coming weeks will determine whether or not these concerns increase further.   Come September 12th, we will see if the German Federal Constitutional Court will allow the German economy to be completely flushed down the toilet by supporting the ESM.

Next…
Fed & The ECB Are Involved In A Dangerous Game Of Poker
http://kingworldnews.com
In reviewing the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve proposed actions of another round of currency depreciation to get their economies going, Michael Pento believes this a dangerous game of poker with the markets.   Unfortunately for these two Central Banks, they are not very good at hiding their cards and their promises and threats have already caused commodity and equity prices to rise in anticipation.

Next…
LIBOR-Manipulation Liabilities May Top $176 Billion
http://www.zerohedge.com
It may be beginning, but it now appears that liabilities for LIBOR may top $176 billion.  This potential liability, for some context, is over 35% of the entire market cap of the Big 5 US banks, or $489.5 billion.   Needless to say, they can pull a “Corzine” and simply say that the money just vaporized and they do not know what happened.

Next…
Bank of America in Code Red
http://www.businessinsider.com
Bank of America’s top North America economist, Ethan Harris, believes that the bank is at the eye of a financial storm and things are about to get worse.   Really?   Anyway, they are expecting more money from the Fed in the form of, outright, quantitative easing to save their backsides or they can run to a clueless, gullible, and complicit Congress and state that they are to big to go to jail  err… to big to fail.

Next…
Protect the Banks at All Costs
http://azizonomics.com
Welcome to the new America — where banks must be protected at all costs.   Whether it’s a bailout or a trumped up charge to silence a protestor, if the banks want it, they get it.   After Iceland’s undeniable recovery, even Paul Krugman is now very slowly beginning to get it when it comes to these criminal banks.   So, if this ignorant Nobel Peace prize economist finally gets it, it may not be long afterwards that corrupt bankers, everywhere, could be introduced to tar and feathers.

Next…
To Honor Neil Armstrong, Obama Posts Photo of Himself
http://www.breitbart.com

Well, it looks like Obama’s narcissism and arrogance are still reigning supreme.   Instead of picturing Neal Armstrong, he decided to post a picture himself looking up at the crescent moon.   Anyway, this piece of BEEPs true disdain for Neil Armstrong is clearly illustrated by the fact that the U.S. flag was not at half staff.

Next…
Scientists Successfully ‘Hack’ Brain
http://seattle.cbslocal.com
Using a $299 off-the-shelf Emotiv brain-computer interface, scientist were able to utilize the P300 brain signal and pluck sensitive information from a person’s head.   Of course, with this little insight, you know the TSA will be all over this.

Finally, please prepare now for the escalating economic and social unrest. Good Day!

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