Tuesday, April 12, 2016

IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast Again; Warns Of "Secular Stagnation", Says More Monetary Stimulus Needed



Moments ago the IMF did what it does better than anyone (with the exception of the Fed): it once again admitted its forecast of world growth had been too optimistic, and as a result in its just released quarterly World Economic Outlook report, it cut its forecast for 2016 global GDP growth from 3.4% to 3.2%, and from 3.6% to 3.5% for 2017. Indicatively, back in July 2014 the IMF was forecasting 4.0% GDP growth in 2016. It is now 20% lower.


Schauble Throws Up All Over Mario Draghi: "The ECB Is Causing Extraordinary Problems"

SCHAEUBLE SAYS ECB CAUSING 'EXTRAORDINARY PROBLEMS': REUTERS
SCHAEUBLE: ECB POLICY DOESN'T HELP TRUST IN EUROPE INTEGRATION
SCHAEUBLE: FISCAL, MONETARY POLICY LARGELY EXHAUSTED GLOBALLY



"Investors" Panic Buy Stocks After IMF Downgrades The World

What is more bullish than utterly bearish macro-economic data? Answer - more bearish macro data (and a call for moar monetray stimulus that has workled so well in recent years)... So what happens now that algos have run the overnight high stops?




Bernanke's Former Advisor: "People Would Be Stunned To Know The Extent To Which The Fed Is Privately Owned"

Earlier today, former central bank staffer and Dartmouth College economics professor Andrew Levin, special adviser to then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke between 2010 to 2012, said something shocking. "A lot of people would be stunned to know” the extent to which the Federal Reserve is privately owned." Is the truth finally starting to come out?



Size Matters: Analysts Mock Italy's Tiny "Atlas" Bailout Fund Meant To Support €360BN In Bad Debt

Yesterday Italy announced that it had taken the long-anticipated first step to alleviate investor concerns surrounding the stability of the banking system. Local banks, insurers, and asset managers have agreed to fund a €5 billion backstop for these troubled loans. Speculation of the imminent deal had sent Italian (and European) bank stocks soaring yesterday. The deal is named Atlante, or Atlas, after the mythological god who held up the sky. This is appropriate, as it truly is a myth to believe that setting aside 1.5% to resolve a €360 billion bad debt problem will solve anything.



Iceland's Pirate Party Polls At Stunning 43% Following PM's Resignation

"This is a chance to fix this broken democracy that we have and maybe it will survive this crisis that democracies all around the world are facing..."



Manhattan's Real Estate Woes Get Worse: No Demand In Building Where Ackman Splurged $90 Million

Luxury real estate developer Extell Development Co can’t sell luxury condos at what may be New York's premier ultra luxury destination, the One57 tower, which it is attributing it to the fact that there is an abundant supply of condos already on the market. As a reminder, One57 is where Bill Ackman paid $91.5 million in April 2015 for a condo (which he hoped to flip), just a few months before Valeant, and his fund, suffered staggering losses. Perhaps that should have been the tell.



US Import Prices Tumble For 20th Month In A Row As China Exports Most Deflation Since 2009

For the 20th month in a row, US Import Prices dropped YoY (down a worse than expected 6.2% YoY) with China exporting deflation at the fastest pace since 2009. The overall deflationary streak is the longest since 1999.



Nomura Fires 1,000 As It Quits European Equity Business; Blames "Extreme Volatility And Lack Of Liquidity"

The latest confirmation of the pain global megabanks are suffering as a result of an abysmal trading environment, in no small part made even worse due to constant central bank tinkering, comes from Japan's largest brokerage, Nomura, which eight years after buying Lehman's European and Asian units has decided to fire 15% of its European staff and is abandoning most of its European equities business. Altogether, Nomura will fire about 1,000 bankers between its European and US groups.



Silver Surges To 8-Month Highs As Hedgers Unwind

Silver is now up almost 10% from its spike lows last week (up over 5% since Friday), has broken above $16, snapped 2016's highs at $16.17 and is back at its highest since October 2015. Amid the big tumble in commercial hedgers positions, we also note the Gold/Silver ratio has plunged to 2-month lows - just as we suggested.



Oil Strategist: "Doha Freeze Talks, If Anything, Look Bearish For Oil"

In the past few weeks, we have expressed our view why the much anticipated OPEC Doha meeting on "freezing" oil production will be one of the biggest "sell the news" events when it comes to oil. Yesterday, even Goldman opined why the OPEC Doha meeting will likely be a dud when Damien Courvalin said: "Don't Expect A Bullish Surprise." Now, we present the view of Bloomberg oil strategist Julian Lee, who says "Doha Freeze talks, if anything, look bearish for oil." Here's the simple reason why.



Futures Rebound On Weaker Yen; Oil Hits 2016 Highs

In recent days, we have observed a distinct trading pattern: a ramp early in the US morning, usually triggered by some aggressive momentum ignition, such as today's unexplained pump then dump in the EURUSD with stocks rising after the European open, rising throughout the US open, then peaking around the time the US closed at which point it is all downhill for the illiquid market. So far today, the pattern has held, and after trading flat for most of the overnight session, with Europe initially in the red perhaps on disappointment about the Italy bank bailout fund, a bout of early Europe-open associated buying pushed US futures up, following the first rebound in the USDJPY after 7 days of declines which also helped the Nikkei close 1.1% higher.



19 Signs That American Families Are Being Economically Destroyed

The systematic destruction of the American way of life is happening all around us, and yet most people have no idea what is happening.



Former IMF Chief Economist Admits Japan's "Endgame" Scenario Is Now In Play

Japan is heading for a full-blown solvency crisis as the country runs out of local investors and may ultimately be forced to inflate away its debt in a desperate end-game, one of the world’s most influential economists has warned.  "One day the BoJ may well get a call from the finance ministry saying please think about us – it is a life or death question - and keep rates at zero for a bit longer."


Hate Taxes? You Certainly Are Not Alone…

by Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse Blog:

At this time of the year, millions of Americans are rushing to file their taxes at the last minute, and we are once again reminded just how nightmarish our system of taxation has become.  I studied tax law when I was in law school, and it is one of the most mind-numbing areas of study that you could possibly imagine.  At this point, the U.S. tax code is somewhere around 4 million words long, which is more than four times longer than all of William Shakespeare’s works put together.  And even if you could somehow read the entire tax code, it is constantly changing, and so those that prepare taxes for a living are constantly relearning the rules.  It has been said that Americans spend more than 6 billion hours preparing their taxes each year, and Politifact has rated this claim as true.  We have a system that is as ridiculous as it is absurd, and the truth is that we don’t even need it.  In fact, the greatest period of economic growth in all of U.S. history was when there was no income tax at all.  Why anyone would want to perpetuate this tortuous system is beyond me, and yet we keep sending politicians to Washington D.C. that just keep making this system even more complicated and even more burdensome.
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Why chemo is not the answer to cancer: shorter life spans, destruction of the immune system, and more

by J. D. Heyes, Natural News:
You may not know this, but there is an interesting – and disturbing – statistic regarding chemotherapy. When it all comes down to it, you might be surprised to know that 75 percent of doctors surveyed in a 2013 report said they would refuse the treatment for themselves.
That’s three out of four.
And do you know why? Because they know of its devastating effects on the body and the immune system, and they are well aware that chemotherapy generally has a low overall success rate. And yet, this ineffective treatment is prescribed for just about every cancer there is.
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BlackRock CEO Fink: Negative & Low Interest Rates Eat into Consumer Spending at Worst Possible Time

from Wolf Street:

“A hostile landscape” – that’s what BlackRock CEO Larry Fink called the global investment, economic, and political environment in his gloomy annual letter to his shareholders. It starts out propitiously:
Investors today are facing tremendous uncertainty fueled by slowing economic growth, technological disruption, and social and geopolitical instability.
More specifically:
In China, growth is slowing with global effects.
In the U.S., the quality of corporate earnings is deteriorating, with record share repurchases in 2015 driving valuations – an indication of companies succumbing to the pressures of short-termism in place of constructive, long-term strategies.
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Vampire Squid Goldman Sachs Gets Away with $5 Billion ‘Non-Punishment’

by Deirdre Fulton, Common Dreams:

Goldman Sachs—once described as “great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money”—has agreed to pay $5.1 billion to settle a U.S. probe into allegations that it misled mortgage bond investors during the financial crisis, the U.S. Justice Department (DOJ) said Monday.
The penalty was swiftly denounced as a “non-punishment, non-accountability ritual that will do nothing to stop the Wall Street crime spree.”
The settlement relates to the investment firm’s “conduct in the packaging, securitization, marketing, sale and issuance of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) between 2005 and 2007,” according to a DOJ statement.
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This Place is the Austin, Texas of South America

from Sovereign Man:
What an amazing weekend.
We just finished up a wonderful event here in Medellin for members of our Total Access group.
(Total Access is the highest level of Sovereign Man membership, and we routinely hold trips like this to introduce members to business and investment opportunities all over the world, and to the interesting, influential people within our network.)
As an example, we started on Thursday night with a reception for our members attended by prominent Colombian business executives, politicians, and artists.
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Creating Freedom with Vertical and Horizontal Agorism

by Derrick Broze, Activist Post:
On Sunday April 10, 2016, Derrick Broze spoke at the Texas Libertarian Party State Convention about Agorism, community building, and going off grid to create conscious Agoras. For more in depth details, check out A Strategy for Forcing the State Back by Per Bylund.
Read More @ Activist Post

97% of Endangered Species Threatened by 2 Pesticides

by Christina Sarich, Natural Society:
We know that pesticides are harming the animals – from creatures who live in the oceans, to larger animals living on farms, in jungles, on prairies, and even flying above our heads. But even more worrisome, they seem to be a threat to endangered species roaming the earth.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has just released an analysis pinpointing the collective impact that just 3 pesticides have on a surprising 97% of all the animals on endangered and threatened species lists nationwide.
These 3 common pesticides—chlorpyrifos, diazinon, and malathion—are causing unwanted damage to the natural world.
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