Thursday, April 21, 2016

Pimco Economist Has A Stunning Proposal To Save The Economy: The Fed Should Monetize Gold



"In the context of today’s paralyzed political-fiscal landscape how silly is it to suggest the Fed purchase a significantly large quantity of gold bullion at a substantially greater price than today’s free-market level, perhaps $5,000 an ounce?  Admittedly, this suggestion is almost too outrageous to post under the PIMCO logo, but NIRP surely would have elicited a similar reaction a decade ago. But upon reflection, it could be an elegant solution since it flips the boxes on a foreign currency “prisoner’s dilemma”. Most critically, a massive gold purchase has the potential to significantly boost inflationary expectations, both domestic and foreign."



Notorious Short Seller Raises $100 Million To Take Down Unknown Company

Kerrisdale Capital's Sahm Adrangi is no stranger to stirring up notoriety and self-promoting publicity if it helps generate inbound capital or profits. Back in 2013 New York magazine's spellbound Kevin Roose wrote an extended profile of the then-32 year old hedge fund manager and prominent short seller, describing him as "the hedge-fund world’s first full-on social-media-savvy investor can move markets with the flick of a tweet." Fast forward to today when we learn that Adrangi has synthesized all these components into his latest marketing gimmick: as Reuters reports Kerrisdale has raised approximately $100 million from investors to bet against a single stock.
 


EU’s Refugee Dilemma: "Growing Panic" On How To Change Terms Of Deal With Devil

When you make a deal with the devil, it’s certain the devil will insist you keep up your end of the bargain. That’s precisely where we are at today in regards to the European refugee crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel signed off on a deal with the devil (Turkey) that would give 80 million Turkish Muslims visa-free access to the EU. As part of the deal, Turkey will receive €3 billion in aid. In return, Turkey agreed to halt the flow of refugees pouring into Greece. Turkey did stop the flow of refugees into Greece, and now the devil wants his due.
 



Janet Yellen's 'Death Cross'

From 2011 (Jackson Hole) to 2015 (end QE3) everything was awesome for The Fed's 'trickle-down optimism' plan. As stocks rose so consumer confidence lurched higher as the artfice of equity market 'wealth' smoke-and-mirror-ed the population to believe that even if stuff wasn't awesome now, it soon would be. That has now ended... and as the following 'death cross' shows - Yellenomics is over.




"This Is The Most Crowded Trade in History"



"Instead of looking for manager’s and investment opportunities to beat the market, investors are opting to be the market and are likely creating the most crowded trade in historyStagnant monetary policy fosters a groupthink outlook.  The Fed Put prompts the same positioning.  Computerized programs trade correlations and relationships established during an extended period of abnormal policy.  Active managers continue to retrench as the market diverges from the fundamentals, but the blind buyers continue to participate - it does not matter if the market is 10x, 15x, or 20x earnings, they buy for one reason, it is the market."




Dow Dumps Back Below 18,000 - Worst Day In 2 Weeks

Down over 160 points from overnight highs, The Dow Industrials just lost 18,000 (S&P lost 2,100 also) as VIX pushes back to 14.00... This 0.5% drop is the biggest drop in 2 weeks...



One Commodity Trader Writes: "What Is Happening Has Absolutely No "Reasonable" Explanation"

Call me crazy, and I am not a “conspiracy theorist” – but what is happening has absolutely no “reasonable” explanation. So I have to think outside the box...



The 200 Unbound - Why Trump's Real Magic Number Is Less Than 1,237

Even before Donald Trump’s big win in New York Tuesday night, the conversations among party officials and high-level operatives about a contested Republican convention were already shifting dramatically. The magic number of delegates for Trump to clinch the nomination on the first ballot, likely to be his best and perhaps only chance to do so, remains 1,237. But there are now whispers that the real number of delegates Trump must win by June 7, when the final contests take place, may be lower.



Why Is The Stock Market So Strong?

Although money supply growth remains historically strong and investors are desperately chasing returns in today’s ZIRP world and are therefore evidently prepared to take much greater risks than they otherwise would, an extremely overvalued market is always highly vulnerable to a change in perceptions. In a sense the rebound may actually turn out to be self-defeating, as it will increase the Fed’s willingness resume tightening policy.



Why Commodities Are Selling Off (And What It Means For Demand)

Every market participant has pondered the shenanigans occurring in many commodities in recent weeks as Iron ore, Rebar, Copper, and Steel prices have all gone parabolic. We warned that this was not real demand-driven but purely credit-fuleed malinvestment here, and today, as Credit Suisse notes, we seem to have got confirmation as these metals are tumbling after China raises margins/commission on metal futures.

JPM Emails High Net Worth Clients, Urging Them To "Stay Invested"





How Can Older Workers Compete In An Economy That Values Youth?

Workers of all ages are caught in a vice. Older workers need to keep working longer in an economy which values younger workers (and their cheaper healthcare premiums). And here's why so many workers have to work longer - earned income's share of the GDP has been in a free-fall for decades as Fed-funded financiers and corporations skim an ever greater share of the nation's GDP. (Thanks again, Federal Reserve, for hollowing out our economy to benefit the few at the expense of the many.)



Merkel Facing Political Rebellion After Caving To Erdogan

The backlash has been intense against the German Chancellor as many claim this is an outrageous infringement of free speech, and to add insult to injury, it's being used simply to placate Erdogan who already has strained relations with the German people over the Syrian refugee crisis. As the Telegraph reports, Merkel is now facing a government rebellion over her decision.



US Government "Agrees In Principle" With Volkswagen's $10 Billion-plus 'Sorry-We-Cheated' Compensation Plan

Judge Charles Breyer has confirmed that Volkswagen's $10 billion-plus plan to resolve claims by the U.S. government and lawsuits by American car owners over its pollution-cheating debacle has been 'agreed in principle' by the Justice Department and various other US agencies. The plan covers at least 480,000 cars in the US and over 600 lawsuits offering consumers flexibility including buybacks and "substantial compensation," but does not address fines or penalties.



UBS Warns "Beware The Bull Trap" As Breadth Breaks Down

"Together with a divergence forming in the VIX index, and with the seasonality getting toppish we continue to see the risk of a significant and longer lasting tactical correction leg in the US and global equities into summer."



Russia Threatens U.S., Will Respond With "All Necessary Means" To Any NATO Intimidation Attempts

If anyone was expecting Russia to politely apologize to the U.S. for last week's two "flybys", they would be drastically disappointed, because as Reuters reported overnight, it was Russia who accused the United States on Wednesday of intimidation by sailing a U.S. naval destroyer close to Russia's border in the Baltics and warned that the Russian military would respond with "all necessary measures" to any future incidents.

How To Re Brand The IRS

by James Corbett, The International Forecaster:

As you may have noticed the #TaxationIsTheft meme has been making the rounds on the internet for the last few weeks. Well it officially went viral this week, with the hashtag trending on Twitter on #TaxationIsTheft day, aka April 18th.
The idea is simple enough to understand, and has been articulated many times before. Take Lysander Spooner’s 19th century formulation of the idea:
“The fact is that the government, like a highwayman, says to a man: Your money, or your life. And many, if not most, taxes are paid under the compulsion of that threat.”
Read More

Junior Gold Stocks are Leveraged & Spring-Loaded

by Nick Hodge, Outsider Club:

The market — and by that I mean the S&P — has been in a raging and historic bull market since 2009.
And it’s still getting its ass kicked by gold.
All the kings horses and all the king’s free money have pushed the stock market up some 207% since the post-financial crash bottom of 2009.
But here are a few things the mainstream won’t tell you.
Gold beats stocks over the past 10 years. Gold beats stocks over the past year… over the past six months and year-to-date.
Read More



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