Europe's Funding Scramble: Peeking Below The Calm Surface Waters Of French Bank Liquidity (And Lack Thereof)
That European wholesale, and particularly dollar, funding has been "problematic" in past weeks is an understatement. One merely needs to look at the Fed's recent expansion in its transatlatnic swap lines to figure out that someone, somewhere is struggling to meet their USD-denominated obligations. However, is it just one bank, as recent data out of the ECB suggest, or is this merely a symptom of a far more acute underlying cause? Alas, as Barclays' Joseph Abate confirms by looking at the transformation in funding patterns within that most fulcrum of European banking systems - that of France - the threat is far more prevalent than has been speculated. In fact, based on the rapid transition in funding from unsecured to secured lending markets within French banks in general, and one name in particular, it seems that while SocGen stock may have avoided its daily rout courtesy of the extension in the short selling ban, there is a far greater concern for the bank: one of maintaining orderly daily operation funding. And there is little that European stock market regulators can do to restore liquidity, aka confidence, once it starts evaporating. Which it has... although mostly in unsecured markets... for the time being. Should secured funding (ABCP and Repo) wilt next, then it gets really, really bad. To wit: "Bank funding worries have flared up again with the news that the Federal Reserve’s currency swap line with other central banks has been tapped at least twice this month. The trivial amounts borrowed belie significant wholesale funding stresses for some institutions in dollar markets." Let's take a look at what "some"
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08/28/2011 - 17:39
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