It May Be 2008 All Over Again, But There Is One Key Difference
The financial press has been inundated with articles comparing what is happening in global markets now to events in the latter part of 2008. Sure enough, the surge in Treasurys from 100 to 143 in the last two months of 2008 following the Lehman bankruptcy is most comparable to the move in the same security from 122 to 140 in the two months since the beginning of July 2011. What is disturbing is that the bulk of this move has happened after the August 2 debt deal, and after the announcement of QE2.5 or "ZIRP through mid-2013" by the Fed on August 9. Additionally, stocks have also traded in a pattern very reminiscent to what happened during the first round of the Great Financial Crisis, but the lock up in capital market liquidity, especially in Europe, may be the most obvious parallel between the two time periods. That said, there is one key difference between 2008 and 2011. Bill Buckler, in the latest edition of his Privateer, demonstrates what it is...Podcasting The Charts That Matter Next Week: The Continuing Case For A Weaker EUR
Over the past x months, one thing has become all too clear in FX land: the EURUSD must stay rangebound between 1.40 and 1.50, even though as Goldman's John Noyce presents in his latest "not-for-retail" packet, the fair value of the European currency continues to be higher than where it should be. Whether this is a simple case of the tail wagging the dog, whereby the ECB and China are terrified of the downstream effects should the European currency trade under the psychological barrier of 1.40, is unclear. What is clear is that every country in the world has skin in the game, and is forced to keep the EUR in Goldilock rangebound territory: not too low to spook European investors, and not too high to accelerate the German double dip. Some other risk assets correlations observed include the AUD vs 2 year swap spread basket, the VIX vs the S&P, and lastly, on the until recently massively overstretched CHF. Noyce tops it off with some technical perspectives on US govvies and the 2s10s, which is once again diving, although unclear if due to a bullish or bearish flattening.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
First the Administration, Senate and Congress fall flat on their backside with the debt issue compromise.
People internationally expected the Fed, Friday, to come to the economic rescue of western finance and Bernanke said “Who me? Talk to the Administration, Senate and Congress.
Breaking the Chain of Control In Gold
CIGA Eric
The trend controllers have been knocked to the ropes by overwhelming market forces in the leveraged paper markets. The tactic of selling (shorting) advances and buying (covering) declines to control trend has unexpectedly reversed. This suggests the chains of control have been broken in gold. If this trend continues, August 2011 could very well be viewed as an important moment in the history of this secular bull.
Gold London P.M Fixed and the Commercial (C) Less Nonreportables (NR) Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest
Gold London P.M Fixed and Gold Diffusion Index (DI)
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August 27, 2011, at 12:17 pm
by Dan Norcini in the category Trader Dan Norcini |
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by Dan Norcini in the category Trader Dan Norcini |
Print This Post | Email This PostDear CIGAs,
Please click the link below to listen to this week’s metals wrap up from King World News, featuring our very own Trader Dan Norcini.
Click here to listen to the weekly metals wrap up…
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
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