The Coming Economic Collapse, Currency Induced Cost Push Inflation/Hyperinflation, Weimar Germany, Euro Collapse,
Zimbabwe Hyperinflation, Survival in Economic Collapse, World Economic Collapse, Dollar Collapse,
What Would Happen If the Economy Collapsed,The Coming Economic Depression.
Gold and Silver Will Protect Your Wealth.
Last week we had Citigroup warning that the market bottom is about to
fall out, as the Fed is more than likely to disappoint already very
lofty expectations (according to various estimates from both Goldman and
the second Tier banks, i.e., all of them, the market has priced in
roughly $500 billion in QE3 already). Today, Bank of America, which may
or may not be with us much longer, has taken this desperate alarmism
several notches further, and is warning that due to the gridlock in both
the fiscal ("fiscal authorities have bombarded the markets with a
quadraphonic message of hopelessness") and monetary ("the Fed is out of
bullets anyway") stimulative pathways, the likely outcome of anything
from DC will be nothig short of a disaster. To wit: "rather than a repeat of 2010, when the Fed saved the day with QE2, we think we are moving closer to a repeat of 2008, when major policy errors devastated the economy." For once we actually agree with Bank of America: "In
our view, the pressure to “do something” is now far more likely to
result in more desperate or radical measures, even if it is bad
policy." Does this mean that we are looking at a TARP "vote
down" market reaction this Friday if indeed the chairman disappoints?
We will know for sure in about 100 hours, which just may be the longest
100 hours for bulls since the start of the artificial and solely QE
inspired bear market levitation in March of 2009.
For
a perfect ending to a schizophrenic day we go to Reuters which has
just reported that Goldman's CEO has hired high profile defense attorney
Reid Weingarten. The market is not waiting to find out the details,
and GS stock is tumbling. What has alos happened is that gold futures
punched through $1900 for the first time ever. $2000 is the next target,
and will likely be taken out within the week.
Perhaps the most defining features of an asset bubble is a marked and
persistent deviation from the underlying metrics that once determined
fundamental value. We know how real estate in Canada stacks up when
compared to GDP, personal disposable income (cities and provinces), rents (cities and provinces), and inflation.
It's not pretty. As with any real estate bubble, the overvaluation is
most extreme in a handful of cities. The regional data can be seen in
the highlighted links. Certainly not all areas of the country have
experienced a massive divergence from underlying fundamentals, but it is
extensive enough to concern us.
BAC CDS is 30 wider, and back to 360. Its stock is getting hurt.
How long before some renewed focus is applied to the other banks here.
Every day it seems that it is news about real estate that drags down
BAC. The residential problems are at the forefront, but there are
problems with the commercial market as well. Rating agencies, burned so
badly before, may be reluctant to provide such generous ratings when
deals need to be re-financed. And in a country where commercial
building continued for the past 3 years, but jobs haven't reappeared,
how much pricing power is really there? The CMBX are hitting one year
lows (in price terms). Since commercial real estate problems haven't
been grabbing the headlines, I suspect there is more room to go on
banks. In Europe, the banks are all under renewed pressure. This is
morphing into both a sovereign debt problem and now a senior bank debt
problem. Stories of some difficulties getting overnight funding
abound. Most stories are probably just rumours, but in this
environment, they are believable.
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