Gold...

You Haven’t Seen Anything Yet

August 15, 2011, at 2:51 pm
by Jim Sinclair 

My Dear Extended Family,

We have to admit $1764 is a significant level for gold. Above that level and the $1800 plus recent high comes into focus. Above that level the hyperbolic potential of the gold price comes into focus.
Some of the finest minds in gold anticipate a very short but brutal reaction in price. The dollar market seems to not agree with a gold correction here.
Market wise, the Fed has thrown the US dollar into the wind. Under .7400 the dollar denies a reaction in gold at these levels.
When gold broke out above $524.90 I asked you to please cease trading as gold had moved from phase 1 into a runaway price phase 2. It is this phase that has given you prices in excess of $1650. $1764 has the same significance as $524.90 because it represents phase 3, the point when a runaway price market for gold would gain exponential properties. Because $1764 is such a significant number, you can expect one of the more serious price battles before the price departs to Alf Fields’ and Armstrong’s predictions.

To sum up the situation, you haven’t seen anything yet.

Regards,
Jim Sinclair

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In The News Today

August 15, 2011, at 1:33 pm
by Jim Sinclair 

 

 

World Bank chief: Global economy in ‘new danger zone’
By the CNN Wire Staff
August 15, 2011 6:29 a.m. EDT
(CNN) — The head of the World Bank warned Sunday that many key market players have lost confidence in recent weeks, pushing the fragile global economy into a “new danger zone.”
Speaking to members of the Asian Society in Sydney, Australia, Robert Zoellick said events the past few weeks in Europe and the United States already have had an adverse impact, and could signal even bigger problems ahead. Several European nations continue to struggle with high debt, slow economies and other issues, while U.S. politicians went to the wire before they raised its debt ceiling — only to see credit agencies downgrade its credit rating, and stock markets flounder.
“There was a convergence of some events in Europe and the United States that has led many market participants to lose confidence in the economic leadership of some of the key countries,” Zoellick said.
This reflects growing sentiment that years after the start of a major recession conditions could continue to deteriorate, the World Bank president said. His organization is a key player in the global economy, with its website noting it offers “financial and technical assistance to developing countries.”
“I think that those events combined with some of the other fragilities in the nature of the recovery has pushed us into a new danger zone,” Zoellick said. “And I don’t say those words lightly.”

More…

Jim’s Mailbox

August 15, 2011, at 1:32 pm
by Jim Sinclair 

Italian union threatens general strike 
CIGA Eric
 
Follow the demonstrations, strikes, and riots across the globe as country after country adopts attempts to adopt austerity and tax programs to close their budget gaps. This solution is similar to replacing fire trucks with squirt guns as a cost-saving measure to battle fires. While the move will save money, it is also certain to slowly burn down the city.
Headline: Italian union threatens general strike
The head of Italy’s biggest union is warning of a general strike to protest austerity measures pushed through by Premier Silvio Berlusconi’s government, according to reports published Sunday.
Susanna Camusso, leader of the CGIL labor union, told the La Repubblica newspaper that union officials would meet Aug. 23 to schedule a strike date, the Associated Press reported.
A work stoppage would be one way to “change the inequity of this package,” the AP quoted Camusso as saying.
The strike threat follows the passage Friday of a $64.8 billion package of spending cuts and tax increases intended to balance Italy’s budget by 2013.
Critics of the measures, which came in response to demands by the European Central Bank, say they would unfairly burden the middle class and do nothing about Italy’s trouble with large-scale tax evasion.
Source: marketwatch.com
 
More…






Harvey Organ Monday, August 15, 2011

Gold finishes comex session at $1755.50/silver also rebounds/dollar index falls badly

Gold's breakout above $1,800 could come any time, Turk tells King World News

 

Guest Post: “The Sequel”: How 2011 Is A Repeat of 2008—Only Bigger, Longer, and Uncut by Bailouts

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/15/2011 - 17:00 I am confident in predicting we are about to have another Global Financial Crisis—I’m calling it The Sequel: Same movie, same players, same story. Only this time around—like all good sequels—the financial crisis we are about to experience is going to be bigger, longer, and uncut by bailouts. By the way, that is the key difference between 2008 and 2011: We’re not going to have a Hollywood Ending this time around. The governments of Europe and the United States, as well as their respective central banks, do not have any weapons to fight off this 2011 financial crisis, as they did in 2008, for the simple reason that they used them all up—they’re out of bullets, both monetarily and politically. So when The Sequel hits the big screen, there won’t be a Big Daddy Government deus ex machina to come save the day in the third act twist. When The Sequel hits, we’re on our own.

Complete Paulson Q2 Holdings Summary: Cuts Citi by 20%, BofA By 52%, Adds 64% To Wells Fargo

Paulson & Co.'s latest 13F is out. As has already been extensively discussed, Paulson largely has eliminated his BAC stake, which in recent days is rumored to have been cut to zero, although as of June 30 was a little over $660 Million, or 60.4 million shares, a substantial 52% cut from the $1.65 billion or 123.6 million shares at March 31. In the process he made BAC his top 12 position, a far cry from where it was in 2010. Overall, Paulson deleveraged substantially in Q2, with the bulk of his positions declining across the board, although he did cut his whopping 1.8 billion Citi stake by just 19% to $1.4 billion, which is where the pain trade for the fund is contained (for those wondering, his JPM position was cut by just 6%). Paradoxically, as of June 30, Paulson actually added $160 million to his Capital One position and a whopping $300 million to his Wells Fargo position making these his top 6 and 8th positions, respectively. Somehow we doubt his LPs will be too happy with this decision. Paulson added new positions in Life Technologies, Savvis, News Corp, Southern Union, Mosaic, Tenet, Walter Energy, Grifols, NYSE Euronext (probably an M&A arb), Agnico Eagle Mines, and State Bank Financial. These are highlighted in green in the table below. Any simple additions are bolded. Paulson cut his entire stakes in Alcon, Alberto Culver, Atheros, Boston Scientific, CIT, Cooper Companies, Emergency Medical Services, International Paper, JC Penney, Kinross Gold, Lorillard, Marshall & Isley, Novell, Pride Intl, RC2 Corp, Seagate, Smurfit Stone (so much for that whole paper trade), St Jude, Talecris and Wilmington Trust. We expect major selling in Paulson's Q3 update unless like last year, his fund rises from the ashes of reality courtesy of yet another round of easing. Somehow we doubt it (the Phoenix thing, not the Easing).

Italy calls for euro bonds, UK backs fiscal union

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago

Tremonti returned to proposals for jointly-issued bonds that would effectively make individual governments' debt a common burden, saying they were the "master solution" to the euro zone debt crisis. Getting the haves to share the burden with the have nots will be easier said than done. Headline: Italy calls for euro bonds, UK backs fiscal union Italian Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 

Third Point's June 30 Holdings Update: Entire Apple Stake Cut

Here is the updated 13F summary just filed from Third Point as compared to the holdings as of March 31. We leave readers to do their homework on how Dan Loeb is positioning himself per his holdings as of 45 days ago. Stakes completely cut since March 31 include Apple ($69MM), Aspen Tech ($51MM), Carefusion ($20MM), CBS Corp ($25MM), KKR ($20MM), Madison Square Garden ($2MM), PHH ($65MM), Smurfit-Stone ($87MM), Tesoro ($67MM), Textron ($37MM), Viewpoint Fin ($21MM) and YPF SA ($45MM).

Market Stages Tremendous Rally.... On 40% Of Recent Volume

When witnessing this latest vapor volume melt up, what can one say but victory for the bulls... Oh yes, ignore that the relentless rally is on 40% of the past 10 day average volume. 1.8 million ES contracts on 4.46 million 10 DMA. Irrelevant: inverse distribution or something is the conventional spin. Europe is fixed, and no recession is coming - just cover any and all shorts before Google buys them all. Also ignore when a month from today we are back to the level when two ES contracts send the market limit up.

FMX Connect Gold Options Report - August 15, 2011

The trading today was consistent with the last three days, with one exception: Dealers bought calls. Dealers bought them in fence form, but they were careful to sell volatility in premium while covering their short calls. Examples include the 1700/2000 Risk Reversal and other structures of that type that sold premium yet bought skew. Remember the December 2000 Call is a 15 delta item now, hardly a typical skew option, yet it has premium of over $22. Volatility is by no means cheap. Simultaneously, it is by no means unjustified. Up until today, between the call liquidation and the straddle selling we would have said the market was poised for a quick sell-off or a slow move higher. Today’s risk reversal trading by dealers makes us lean toward the latter, and at a slightly faster pace. Our technical analysis below highlights levels to watch. Options just don’t show us washing out right now. Perhaps another two or three margin raises will do the trick. Conclusion: Mildly Bullish

Our Biggest Surprise From The "Patriotic Millionaires For More Taxes Initiative": Whitney Tilson Makes Over A $1,000,000

When we read about the "Patriotic Millionaires" initative, in which anyone can submit a name and an email address, and indicate they make over a million dollars, while patriotically proclaiming their desire to be taxed more, our biggest surprise was not that nearly 400 Americans gave the IRS a carte blanche to go through their 2011 tax returns line by line, but that Whitney Tilson actually makes over a million per year. It appears the "Value" Investing Congress still has money left over after spending millions on R&D for uncovering revolutionary ways for its VIC conference invite (80% off, but only if you respond in the next 10 minutes) blast mail to pass through every single spam filter known to man (or so it would appear to disinterested 3rd parties who have tendonitis from hitting unsubscribe countless times). That said, we are confident all of these patriotic individuals will gladly submit at least an additional 10% of their gross income to the IRS, and provide proof of doing so, regardless of how successful their highly patriotic and altruistic campaign ends up being. Because otherwise those tempted to do so, may actually accuse said "millionaires" of hypocritical posturing. Incidentally, perhaps next said self-proclaimed millionaires, who count in their ranks such rich men as Nouriel Roubini, Leo Hindery, Mike Steinhardt, and Edie Falco can also disclose the liability side of their balance sheets.







This is how Banana Republics are run... Ours is no different...Just watch the investigation of S&P...

Argentina fines economists who publish unfavorable inflation estimates

 Filed under more Lies and Bullshit...(I know it's insulting... to the Bullshit).

Heeeere's TOTUS (Again)

...Because the only thing better than one daily appearance by the TOTUS is two appearances by the TOTUS.