Russ Certo: "The Fed Just Basically Announced Recession"

The Fed just basically announced “recession” and has consequently lowered rates REAL TIME and even set parameters for negative rates.  There was some empirical analysis PRIOR to S&P downgrade which suggested historical tendency (not tendency forecasts) of rates to be 50 bps to 70 bps lower after an industrial sovereign downgrade like Japan, Canada, Australia and others.  We were surprised at all the news conferences harping on the political save egg on face conclusions of lower rates yesterday.  Many, not all, were looking for it.  We are humble given volatility as no one has the answers...The equity response is positive as the Fed is FORCING grandmas and anyone who relies on a fixed income into alternative higher yielding asset classes.  Dividend paying stocks look delicious.  Convertibles, OMG, as you get a higher yielding fixed income instrument with a free equity option?  EQUITIES and other perpetual assets that are being discounted by these rates.  Pension funds use the lower rates to discount valuations.  

A Look At How $58 Billion In USD Purchases Buys You 4 Days Of FX Intervention

It was just 4 days ago that the BOJ purchased Y4.5 trillion (or $58 billion) worth of dollars in the open market to lower the Yen against the dollar. Well, that intervention last not even a full 4 days. As the chart below shows it is time for Shirakawa and Noda to start watching... watching... watching... the yen as it once again approaches all time highs against the dollar. But at least the equity market is confused enough to believe that 2 years of projected deflation is good for risk. Ben wins.... if only for a few hours. The irony is that everyone expected that a fixed inflation (or in this deflation) calendar language is the weakest of the Fed's options. Now that this is precisely what has been utilized, a soft form of Operation Twist 2 which locks in the rates on the 2 Years as explained previously, the market is cheering it deliriously. Once the market has slept on it, it will likely realize why it was so skeptical as recently as 2 hours ago on the viability of this approach.

"Price Stability": 10 Year Retraces Almost Entire Intraday Swing, As The S&P Surges By Over 60 Points In Minutes

Following a 600 point plunge in the DJIA yesterday, today we see a 400 point surge following the presentation of the weak case of the expected Bernanke Put. And completing the amazement, the 10 Year bond, moved to almost record lows, and then retraced virtually the entire move, as nobody knows what central planning has in store for America any longer. Additionally, after being up 50%, VIX is now down 22%. Congratulations Ben: in taking central planning to n^th double-down levels, you have now broken not only the stock, but the bond market as well.

Goldman's Take: "Fed Returns To Monetary Easing"

BOTTOM LINE: Despite three dissents--the largest number since 1992--the committee adopted an even easier policy stance than expected: first, the committee now anticipates that rates will stay on hold "at least through mid-2013." Second, the committee effectively signaled an easing bias saying that it is prepared to employ additional easing steps as appropriate.


 

1] Gold Coins Sell Out in Lisbon as Biggest Bet Sees 22% Gain, Bloomberg

2] South Korea buys gold for first time in 13 years, WSJ

3] Putin calls U.S. 'a parasite' on world, denounces dollar dominance, Reuters

4] Paul proposes bill to cancel $1.6 trillion in U.S. debt to Federal Reserve, The Hill

5] Emerging world buys $10 billion in gold as West wobbles, Reuters

6] The Real Banking Crisis: Eric Sprott, Sprott Asset Management

7] After buying most of it, China gets mad at U.S. for issuing so much debt, Bloomberg

8] Short-Term Yields Going Negative at Bank of New York, Zero Hedge

9] Hoarding gold beats charts over 25 years: Technical Analysis, Bloomberg

10] As many as 20 owners for each bullion bank gold bar: Jim Rickards, KWN

11] Jim Sinclair is interviewed by GoldMoney's James Turk, GATA

12] Silver is 'investment of the next decade,' Sprott says in GoldMoney interview, GATA

13] MineWeb's Lawrence Williams reports on GATA's London conference, GATA

14] US Can Pay Any Debt It Has Because It Can Print Money To Pay It: Greenspan

15] U.S. could run off with other nations' gold, Rickards tells CNBC

16] Ron Paul Slams Obama's "Monstrous Creature," the Super Congress

17] Eurogeddon postponed again as ECB gains three weeks, The Telegraph

18] Walker's World: The Unseen Punch, UPI

19] Debt Crises and Market Turmoil: Is The World Going Bankrupt? Der Spiegel

20] The world runs out of options, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph

21] The bull case for gold, The Telegraph

22] You'll Be Buying Gold at $2,000/oz - And Higher, Casey Research

23] Fed May Announce QE3 Now Creating Gold Explosion: James Turk, KWN

24] Gold & Markets Signal More "Great Recession" - Richard Russell, KWN

25] Doug Casey Interview, King World News

26] Jim Rickards Interview: All About Gold, King World News

27] JPMorgan analyst sees gold at $2,500 by year-end, WSJ/GATA