If The S&P Goes To 1000 Or So, The Fed Will Pump Money InTo The System Again

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 3 hours ago

Basically we have a lot of volatility. As you know over the last 12 months the S&P 500 Index rose from 1010 on July 1st, 2010 to a peak on May 2nd of 1370. Then we dropped to 1101 and now we are at 1178. So we have a lot of volatility. I think the market may rebound somewhat more here because we are very oversold and some technical indicators have turned positive including insider buying. But in general I think it will be extremely difficult for stocks to make a new high and after this rebound I think we will drift lower. Not to say that we will collapse because if the S&P 500 Inde... more » 

Greece Threatens To Unwind Second Bailout By Agreeing To Finland Collateral Demands

One of the biggest stories this morning is that European cohesion and solidarity is about to crumble after it was disclosed that Greece was pursuing a private deal with Finland in which Greece promised to collateralize Finnish contributions, in essence eliminating Finland's contribution to the Greek Bailout round 2. As Kathimerini reported, "Greece and Finland agreed on Tuesday to virtually cancel the latter’s participation in the former’s second bailout package, following three days of negotiations between Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and his Finnish counterpart Jutta Urpilainen. Finland’s share in the 109-billion-euro package amounts to about 1 billion, which Helsinki will pay to Greece but Athens will repay it through a new loan contract to be signed for this purpose and which will be valid for the next 25 years (likely to be the maturing period of the new loans, too). This means in practice that Finland’s contribution to the new package will be returned in full and deposited in a special account to be created by the Finnish government." End result is that everyone else has immediately come demanding the same treatment: first the Austrians, next the Dutch, and last the Slovenians. And what happens if Finland backtracks on its collateral demand: will it back out of the Greek bailout as well? Or, if Finland digs in, and all the non-German countries follow suit, will Germany say Enough and tell Europe (and China) to fix its own problems?

Think gold may lose some luster? Eric Sprott sees a silver lining 

 

John Embry: Precious metals poised for next move up

 

 

CMBX Selloff Accelerates

Yesterday, we speculated that the perfect storm for CMBX, long overdue, is finally coming. Sure enough, it appears to have arrived as the sell off across AAA/AM and AJ 1-5 CMBX vintages has seen one of the most agreesive dumps on the day, focusing particularly on the lowest in the stack.




Do you pay for a newspaper? 

If you find useful information here, please consider making a small donation, to help cover cost of running this blog. Without your support I will be forced to shut down this blog soon.

Thank You

I'm PayPal Verified

 

 

 

So Far The "Europe Gone Home" Rally Is Working... How Much Longer?

Feels like people are waiting for Europe to go home so that we can rally? That has worked in the past, but I don't think it will this time. This was not just European selling. It is not just the problems in Europe. In fact, the news seems to be getting worse out of there. Merkel and Sarkozy announce they have a candidate for the new head of something or other and that is somehow useful and positive? Finland, and potentially others demanding collateral from Greece to provide more funding is far more important in my opinion. At the same time, our data was awful. Brutal, yet most people seem to want to trade in anticipation of the next rally. That conviction that we will bounce doesn't seem to have disappeared. The Europe gone home rally is just another example of that. Yet how many times have rallies failed to materialize because everyone is anticipating them?

This Isn't Just a Correction... The Second Round of the GREAT Crisis is Here!

Posted by: Phoenix Capital...

Post date: 08/18/2011 - 10:58

We’re now officially in the Second Round of the Great Crisis. And if you thought the first Round of the Financial Crisis was bad, wait until you see the next one. Indeed, I fully expect that what’s... 

After Accurately Predicting the French Bank Run, I Now Predict US Bank CONTAGION!!!

Posted by : Reggie Middleton

Post date: 08/18/2011 - 09:31

After accurately predicting the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis, which sparked our prediction of the French Bank Run which appears to be causing a panic induced market run as I type this, we've... 

 

 

Macro Guest Commentary: If Gold Is A Barbarous Relic, All Hail Barbarism!

Speaking of gold, have a quick read of the article about Hugo Chavez nationalizing Venezuela’s gold industry and more importantly, repatriating his physical gold from storage sites abroad back to Caracas. The worry here is two-fold: 1) that his demands for physical delivery could stress the market given the estimates of somewhere between 30 and 45 paper ounces of gold issued for every 1 ounce of physical. 2) that this action starts a trend amongst countries that aren’t particularly US-friendly to repatriate and even potentially price sensitive commodities in gold. How much longer will Chavez continue to sell his extremely useful, much needed petroleum products and in exchange accept increasingly worthless pieces of paper, ie USD? Some might respond that if he did that, the US would instantly label him a terrorist and take him out. Perhaps. But what if Russia did it? What if Iran did it? If the commodity rich enemies of the US want to cause problems in this country they don’t need to fire a single shot, all they have to do is start selling their products priced in gold. The end of the reign of the USD as reserve currency will follow quickly.

The Scariest Chart Ever: Philly Fed Versus Non-Farm Payrolls

-700K NFP print coming?

Donald "Patriotic American" Trump Portfolio Update

Last Thursday, Donald Trump appeared on CNBC, and in an attempt to generate PR publicity almost as bad as A&F's idiotic campaign to pay The Situation money not to wear their clothing, sad the following: '"You wouldn't believe it. I bought Bank of America, I bought Citi, I bought, you know, two troubled companies that I think have an upside, lets see what happens. Caterpillar, Intel, Johnson and Johnson, Proctor and Gamble." We were curious to see how Trump's latest foray into picking securities (as opposed to bankruptcy advisors - he truly excels there) turned out. Here is the result of what listening to the former (and/or future) presidential candidate has yielded in a few short days.