New report says the euro could collapse before year-end
"After weeks of apparent calm in Europe, the sovereign debt crisis is set to explode once again...  

Retaliation: Greek Budget Expert Fired For Standin Up To Europe, Telling Truth About Country's Insolvency

Yesterday we made an amusing contrast between the lies of European insolvent state annexator general Olli Rehn who said that "Greece’s debt is on a “durable declining path” and new projections will show that the second rescue program reduces net  liabilities, European Union Economic and Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn said" and the truth uttered by Greek budget committee head Stella-Savva Balfousia, who said  "Greece's debt has run out of control and government policies are failing to restore finances." Guess which one just got the axe. No this is not a trick question. And if you said prematurely terminated Devan Sherma you get half a point, because as the more observant out there may have noticed, the only benefit for blowing the whistle these days is immediate and irrevocable termination from both one's high profile job, and the status quo.






We're At the End Game For Fed Intervention

Posted by : Phoenix Capital...

Post date: 09/01/2011 - 15:00

The Fed has already gone too far with QE. QE 2 spent $600 billion and didn’t accomplish anything (as I and several commentators have recently noted). The Fed’s balance sheet (roughly $3 trillion) is...





Harvey Organ, Thursday, September 1, 2011
Jobs report tomorrow/surprisingly gold and silver held/

Guest Post: Why Unemployment Is About To Surge

Let's take a quick look at some numbers: 8, 160, 400, 350, 12 and 5. There have only been 8 weeks out of last 160 weeks that unemployment claims have been below 400 thousand claims. In normal circumstances we are worried about recessions when claims are rising above 350 thousand claims. Furthermore, jobless claims tend to plunge below 350 thousand a week within 12 months after the end of a recession. Currently we are still holding above 400 thousand claims after more than two full years since the recession statistically ended. Those are some pretty ugly numbers, but the most important number is 5. The reason that we think unemployment might move sharply higher is that every time the STA Composite Employment Index drops to a level of 5 or less the economy has been in a recession. Of course, it is during recessions that unemployment claims rise sharply as businesses cut back on their labor force to reduce costs. This is clearly seen in the chart.

RIPflix

Ugly afternoon for all those mo-mo monkeys who thought it was safe to chase again as Starz ends contract renewal talks with dearly beloved Netflix. NFLX -10.5% after-hours.

CNBC Poll: Do You Support a Return to the Gold Standard?

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 4 hours ago

A return to the gold standard equals immediate economic depression. Who has the gold to pay for the debts at hand? Bankers would accept payment in gold without hesitation. Vote carefully, friends. Headline: CNBC Poll: Do You Support a Return to the Gold Standard? Some are calling for a return to the gold standard following the explosion of government debt in Europe and the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Guest Post: Tracking Gold

Recently, we’ve received a number of emails from readers asking why the primary gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), doesn’t more closely track the price of gold, and other related questions. For those readers who aren’t already familiar with the workings of this innovative way to “own gold,” it’s worth going over a few of the details, because there are some common misunderstandings regarding the ETF. The creators of GLD were as savvy as it gets. They saw a market crying for something like this and turned that need into one of the most successful new financial products ever introduced. The ETF burst upon the scene in November of 2004 and was immediately latched onto as a means of riding the gold bull market without the inconvenience of having to transport and securely store actual bullion. In the past seven years, its rise has been meteoric. It has steadily ascended the list of the world’s leading gold repositories, until today it has the sixth-largest global stash of the metal, at more than 1,230 tons, or 39.57 million ounces, worth over $70.7 billion.





Roubini Sees 60% Chance of A Double Dip in 2012, China and Brazil Also at Risk

Posted by: EconMatters

Post date: 09/01/2011 - 12:36

Even a broken clock could be right at least twice a day....    

So Much For "Value Investing" - Whitney Tilson Plunges 13.3% In August, Down A Mass Redemption-Inducing 21.1% YT

If anyone works in finance, chances are they have at some point, or more likely, constantly, received emails (we want to keep it civil) to participate in the Value Investing Congress, which purportedly, promotes ideas based on, well, value. Alas, if that is indeed the case, then primary sponsor Whitney Tilson's T2, has to urgently look up the definition of velue. To wit: "Our fund declined 13.3% in August vs. -5.4% for the S&P 500, -4.0% for the Dow and -6.4% for the Nasdaq. Year to date, it’s down 21.9% vs. -1.8% for the S&P 500, +2.1% for the Dow and - 2.2% for the Nasdaq." Even more to wit: "On the long side, our portfolio got clobbered across the board despite generally good company- specific news regarding our major holdings (discussed below). Amidst a tumultuous month in the markets, investors dumped stocks that were even slightly illiquid, or that are valued primarily on future, rather than current, profits – both traits that characterize many positions in our fund. One of our biggest advantages is being willing and able to look out 2-3 years when most investors are looking out 2-3 months (or, in many cases, 2-3 microseconds), but this hurt us last month." But wait, despite what is basically the start of yet another hedge death watch, Tilson sees smooth sailing ahead. "In our view, the turmoil of the past month has created the best bargains we’ve seen in the market since the chaos and panic of late 2008 and early 2009. Of course stocks aren’t anywhere as cheap now as they were then, but the risks aren’t nearly as great either (we think many people didn’t realize or have forgotten how close we were then to a worldwide Great Depression), so on a risk-adjusted basis we think our portfolio is as attractive now as it was then." We can only hope Whitney has some, any, money left to spend on chasing these amazing value bargains. In the worst case, the fees from the VIC conference should find the purchase of at least one block of ES.

Equities Yet To Wake Up To End Of Operation Twist-Style QE3

Equity markets are starting to catch on to the fixed income market's signals as hopes of QE3 are slowly extinguished.

Guest Post: One Death is a Tragedy, One Million is a Statistic

Another day of statistics, where the headlines are widely published, some details are somewhat explored, and in-depth analysis is next to nil...

Fed Action Against 'Serial Offender' Goldman Stumbles Market

Rather interestingly to many of us, the 'pattern of misconduct and negligence' by Goldman Sachs' residential mortgage loan servicing sub Litton, has actually been pressed by The Fed. It seems in the short-term, this was the straw to break the ebullient camel's back of the equity market as XLF drops 2% on the day and GS was down around 3% before bouncing back a little. It certainly seems that the TBTF premium is wearing away rapidly from these once impregnable fortresses of misinformation as both equity and credit markets downgrade them.

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