Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Deutsche Bank To The Rescue: "Will PrimeX Deliver The Next Big Short Miracle Many Of Us Missed In 2007?"

From Deutsche Bank: "The PrimeX indices have experienced a sharp decline since the beginning of October despite an 11% rally of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, the biggest two-week rally since 2009. The price drop can be viewed as a catch-up to the overall market selloffs following investors’ growing fear over the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, increasing likelihood of a global recession, and a weak US housing market. The Fitch’s report on the prime RMBS sector published on October 5 and a subsequent article by ZeroHedge on October 7 fueled the panic selloffs in the last few days, during which we have received far more inquiries about PrimeX than the combined inquiries about PrimeX and ABX over the last two years. It appears to us that many investors have suddenly turned their attention to the PrimeX. Investors from around the world have been wondering whether the PrimeX of 2011 will repeat the ABX miracle of 2007."

Moody's Downgrades Spain Two Notches To A1, Outlook Negative
Since placing the ratings under review in late July 2011, no credible resolution of the current sovereign debt crisis has emerged and it will in any event take time for confidence in the area's political cohesion and growth prospects to be fully restored.... Moody's is maintaining a negative outlook on Spain's rating to reflect the downside risks from a potential further escalation of the euro area crisis. The rating agency expects that the next government to emerge after Spain's parliamentary elections on 20 November will be strongly committed to continued fiscal consolidation. Spain's rating would face further downward pressure if this expectation did not materialise. On the other hand, the implementation of a decisive and credible medium-term fiscal and structural reform plan coupled with a convincing solution to the euro area crisis would trigger a return to a stable outlook. In Moody's view, Spain's sovereign rating is more adequately placed in the A rating category than the Aa category given the potential for contagion from further shocks and the domestic fragilities. Long-term economic strength -- a key input into Moody's sovereign methodology -- is no longer considered to be very high but only moderate given the expectation of a lengthy economic rebalancing process. Moody's also notes that most sovereign issuers with a Aa3 rating have much stronger fiscal and external positions than Spain, including very low public debt, sound public finances and a net creditor status vis-a-vis the rest of the world. This constellation renders them far less vulnerable to a confidence-driven funding crisis than Spain.

Bank of America Takes Sleaze To A New Level

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 2 hours ago
If you keep your money at Bank of America, you are an idiot. BAC quietly moved $53 trillion in derivatives from its holding company to its subsidiary that holds $1 trillion in customer deposits and is insured by the FDIC. If any part of these derivatives blow up, the Taxpayer will then be on hook for the $1 trillion in deposits. I said 8 years ago that we would eventually see things go in this country that blow your mind. This is one of them. Although this kind of move is permitted to a very limited degree by the Federal Reserve Act, there no way in hell the loophole was intend... more » 

Bank Of America Forces Depositors To Backstop Its $53 Trillion Derivative Book To Prevent A Few Clients From Departing The Bank

Bank of America, which today reported a big bottom line loss net of one-time beneficial items, did something quite tricky and extremely devious last month: it shifted anywhere up to the total of $53 trillion of the total derivatives it held as of June 30 (as Zero Hedge previously reported) on its books at Q2 from the Holding Company, which was downgraded last by Moody's from A2 to Baa1 (the third-lowest investment grade rating) to its retail bank, which was downgraded to the far more palatable A2 (from Aa3). The reason for the transfer? Bank customers who were uneasy with the fact that suddenly the collateral backstoping the operating entity handling their counterparty risk was downgraded to just above junk, demanded that said counterparty risk be mitigated by the bank's $1 trillon in deposits. In other words, as Bloomberg first reported when it broke this story, anywhere up to the full $53 trillion (we don't know for sure how much so we assume the worst case) is now fully and effectively backstopped explicitly by the bank's $1,041 trillion (as of September 30) deposits. Pardon's we meant the people's deposits: the same deposits which caused the bank's website to be inoperative for several days in a row after it was rumored that there was an electronic run on the bank. Why? Just so Bank of America can appears whatever remaining clients it has so they decide not to take their business to another derivative counterparty. And who is exposed to this latest idiocy? Why you. But that's not all: the FDIC, which is the entity backstopping the deposits in a worst-case scenario, is not happy with this move for obvious reasons. Yet even it is hopeless to override the Fed, which as Bloomberg reports, "has signaled that it favors moving the derivatives to give relief to the bank holding company." And so, once again, we see just how much more important to the Federal Reserve are interests of US taxpayers and savers, over those of the banks that effectively run the Fed.

Guardian Report That Europe Has Agreed On EFSF-As-Insurance-Policy Sends EURUSD Surging

And here we go again. Wondering what caused the surge in the market? Nothing short of this latest rehash of all the previous rumors, this time focusing on the EFSF as an insurance policy, only this time with the added twist that Europe has agreed on implementation (of something which as analyzed previously just does not work). From the Guardian, (and please note the bolded word in the middle): "France and Germany have reached agreement to boost the eurozone's rescue fund to €2tn as part of a "comprehensive plan" to resolve the sovereign debt crisis that the eurozone summit should endorse this weekend, EU diplomats said. The growing confidence that a deal can be struck at this Sunday's crisis summit came amid signs of market pressure on France following the warning by ratings agency Moody's that it might review the country's coveted AAA rating because of the cost of bailing out its banks and other members of the eurozone. The leaders of France and Germany hope to agree a deal that will assuage market uncertainties or, worse, volatility in the run-up to the G20 summit in Cannes early next month. France would now have to pay more than a full percentage point – some 114 basis points – more than the price paid by Germany to borrow for 10 years as the gap between the two country's bond yields widened to their highest level since 1992." Said otherwise - this is simply the last ditch "plan" proposed by PIMCO parent Allianz to use the EFSF as a 20%-first loss insurance policy, which as we already demonstrated using arcane concepts such as mathematics, DOES NOT WORK. But hey, it is Groundhog Day all over again.

France Refutes That "Blue Horseshoe Loves €2 Trillion Bailout Fund"

Complete, and total, idiocy
  • DJ EU Source: No EFSF Deal Til Friday, EUR2T Number 'Simplistic'
Beyond words.

Apple Misses

The inconceivable just happened:
  • APPLE 4Q REV. $28.27B, EST. $29.60B                  
  • APPLE 4Q EPS $7.05, EST. $7.31                        
And for the first time ever, Apple is a mortal company, and instead of sandbagging forecasts, now projects more than the consensus:
  • Looking ahead to the first fiscal quarter of 2012, which will span 14 weeks rather than 13, we expect revenue of about $37 billion and we expect diluted earnings per share of about $9.30
  • The street: Revenue at $36.776, EPS at $9.017

Apple Total Cash Hits $81.6 Billion, Over $5 Billion Increase In The Quarter, $22 Billion Increase In 9 Months

While the verdict of whether Apple's operations may or may not have peaked, one thing is certain: its cash is growing. In the past (Q4) quarter, AAPL increased its cash, short and long-term investments from $76.2 billion to $81.6 billion (which, however, skeptics will point out was only half the cash growth rate from Q2 to Q3). In 2011 alone, the company that Steve Jobs built generated $22 billion in total cash. Ironically, that is precisely how much the company's market cap is lower by in the after hours session. If AAPL is unsure what to do with all that cash, which would make it the world's biggest hedge fund, it could hire all the stock experts on Twitter, and become the best funded trading operation in the world, which would naturally be buying its own stock all day long (and, if it were to hire a few JPM/BofA/MS traders, buy CDS on itself). Alas, for the CDS plan to work, it would need to issue some debt: the company is still completely debt free.

Divided CFTC adopts position limits; court challenge likely


Paper raids on metals just drive them east faster, Embry tells King World News


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