S&P Downgrades Over 20 Italian Banks, Says Difficult Climate Is Neither "Transitory" Nor "Easily Reversed"Another day, another pervasive downgrade action by S&P. "In our opinion, renewed market tensions in the eurozone's periphery, particularly in Italy, and dimming growth prospects have led to further deterioration in the operating environment for Italian banks. We also think the cost of funding for Italian banks will increase noticeably because of higher yields on Italian sovereign debt. Furthermore, we expect the higher funding costs for both banks and corporates to result in tighter credit conditions and weaker economic activity in the short-to-medium term. We do not believe that this difficult operating climate is transitory or that it will be easily reversed. In our view, funding costs for Italian banks and corporates will remain noticeably higher than those in other eurozone countries unless the Italian government implements workable growth-enhancing measures and achieves a faster reduction in the public sector debt burden. Consequently, we envisage a situation where the Italian banks may well be operating with a competitive disadvantage versus their peers in other eurozone countries. At the same time, we think all banking systems across the eurozone, including Italy, may raise their commitment to reinforcing banks' capitalization."
Following concerns that China will be unable to funnel liquidity into its slowing economy due to latent inflation, the last thing the world needed was to learn that inflation, in this case Producer Prices, was still running at a blistering pace in the US. Alas, that is precisely what it got after September PPI printed up 0.8% from the month before (following the unchanged print in August) and 6.9% YoY. The number was above even the highest expectation from Wall Street strategists (consensus was 0.2%). And while PPI ex food and energy was up just 0.2%, try telling that to those 99% of the population whose income is barely sufficient to buy the, you guessed it, food and energy, which rose by 0.6% and 2.3% respectively. The biggest concern is the immediate impact on margins: producers’ rising costs likely to lead to further margin shrinkage “as firms choose to absorb increasing costs rather than pass them along to consumers,” says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas. Don't expect much respite in the CPI report to follow shortly.
Just out by the only rating agency that is even remotely credible. "Synopsis: Across the valley - GS recorded $2.96B in investing and lending losses and a $378M decline in IB revenues, totaling a $3.34B decline. Hence, the total loss of merely $393M is respectable. Furthermore, given the political pressure, now is not the time to show robust results. The major issues facing GS is the cost of complying with the Volker rule (look for some changes or exemptions from the proposed rule), changes in senior management (to appease Sen. Levin) and a still weak IB and trading environment. However, with the demise of most of its major competitors, GS benefits from the lack of competition, attractive LT trading opportunities, and various forms of federal government support. Other raters might take neg. actions."
What's wrong Brian Sack, couldn't get the bank syndicate to collude fast enough on the latest criminal OWIC?
Just as the bottom was about to fall from the market, here comes the ECB cavalry with its tactical ultra short-term bailout in the form of several billion in Italian BTP purchases. Since this is nothing but a liquidity injection which does nothing to resolve deep, structural and solvency problems, we give this latest intervention attempt about half an hour in halflife. And once the market processes the news from the FT that the EU bank on naked CDS shorting will become permanent, look for everyone short sovereigns to unwind synthetic positions and to rotate shorts into cash bonds. Good luck ECB.
Below we refresh the very simple correlation chart showing the EURUSD and the spread between French OATs and German Bunds, a spread which has soared to all time wides now that France is once again the target of vigilantes on fears of an imminent French downgrade. According to this alone, the EURUSD us now about 1300 pips rich, an ES-implied level of just about 1,000. We expect reality to rear its ugly head very soon.
Because The Financial Short Ban Was Not Enough, Europe To Proceed With CDS Short Selling Ban Imminently, Accelerate Terminal UnwindJust because Europe did not learn any lessons with the financial shorting ban which made everything much worse, here comes this...
- EU LAW TO BAN NAKED SOVEREIGN CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS WITH COUNTRY OPT-OUT IF RISK TO SOVEREIGN DEBT MARKET -- EU SOURCES
- EU SAID TO BE CLOSE TO DEAL FOR CURBS ON NAKED SOVEREIGN CDS
- NAKED SOV. CDS DISCUSSIONS PART OF TALKS ON SHORT-SELLING LAW
- SCHAEUBLE SAYS COSTS OF NAKED SHORT SELLING OUTWEIGH BENEFITS
A key reason why a preponderance of the population is fascinated with the student loan market is that as USA Today reported in a landmark piece last year, it is now bigger than ever the credit card market. And as the monthly consumer debt update from the Fed reminds us, the primary source of funding is none other than the US government. To many, this market has become the biggest credit bubble in America. Why do we make a big deal out of this? Because as Bloomberg reported last night, we now have prima facie evidence that the student loan market is not only an epic bubble, but it is also the next subprime! To wit: "Vince Sampson, president, Education Finance Council, said during a panel at the IMN ABS East Conference in Miami Monday that lenders are no longer pushing loans to people who can’t afford them." Re-read the last sentence as many times as necessary for it to sink in. Yes: just like before lenders were "pushing loans to people who can't afford them" which became the reason for the subprime bubble which has since spread to prime, but was missing the actual confirmation from authorities of just this action, this time around we have actual confirmation that student loans are being actually peddled to people who can not afford them. And with the government a primary source of lending, we will be lucky if tears is all this ends in.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/18/2011 - 09:24 Art Cashin Groundhog Day Twitter Art Cashin shares this amusing market "performance" anecdote which should come as no surprise to anyone who follows the uber-volatile chaos that the stock market has become.
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