Monday, October 17, 2011

Goldman Advises The Fed To Go Nuclear, And Set A Target For Nominal GDP

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago

Market forces will have “gone nuclear” on nearly all central banks before this crisis is over. Smart ones that understand market forces and capital flows have not been increasing their gold reserves because of intense jewelry demand. Headline: Goldman Advises The Fed To Go Nuclear, And Set A Target For Nominal GDP In his latest US Economics Analyst note, Goldman's Jan Hatzius offers up his... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 

Is Anyone Dumb Enough to Believe that Obama Supports the 99%?
George Washington
10/17/2011 - 14:44
Obama Pretends He Supports the 99% … But He’s a Wolf In Sheep’s Clothing 
Reggie Middleton
10/17/2011 - 13:46
Due to the rampant misinformation and disinformation (please recognize and appreciate the distinct difference) being bandied about, I've decided to run the #s 1 more time and put it right here in... 

Deutsche Bank Warns France May Be Put On Downgrade Review Before Year End

First we have Credit Suisse saying 66 European banks will fail the 3rd stress test, and will need hundreds of billions in fresh capital, something the market ignored entirely last week but may want to reevaluate now that the idiocy appears to have subsided. And now, inexplicably, we have Deutsche Bank warning that France may well be put on downgrade review by year end. "We highlight in this note that the French corporate sector is already financially stretched, with poor profitability and large borrowing requirements. We consider that the deterioration in economic conditions is now creating a distinct risk that France could be put under “negative watch” by the rating agencies before the end of this year. We think that France has the wherewithal to react to such an outcome and could avoid an outright downgrade by taking corrective measures quickly, but this naturally would be a very sensitive political decision a few months before a major election." Why either Credit Suisse or Deutsche Bank would jeopardize their own existence by telling the truth, we have no idea. If either of these two banks believe they can survive a vigilante attack on French spreads, and the subsequent shift of contagion to none other than Germany, we wish them all the best. Yet that is preicsely what will likely happen, especially now that the market's can not pull the trick it did for the past two weeks, and stick its head deep in the sand.

Obama's Attempt To Use #OWS As A Diversionary Smoke Screen Fails: 56% Believe Washington To Blame For Crisis And Recession

Zero Hedge is the last to cut Wall Street, with its rampant criminality, conflicts of interest, and corruption, any slack - in fact we are often the first to expose it. That said, we have long found it surprising that popular anger is focused on this particular group of individuals, instead of targeting the just as, if not far more, culpable for the current economic collapse enabling focal point known as Washington D.C. As has been discussed previously, it is no surprise that none other than the president has been quick to embrace the Occupy Wall Street movement and its offshoots as his own: after all it cleanly and efficiently deflects attention from his own near-3 year performance as president. Surely Obama is neither the first (nor last) to recognize that the scapegoating of a "minority" group (as the Wall Street "1%" clearly is) and use it as a catalyst for class warfare, is a historically very successful tactic. Well, while thousands of people may express their displeasure with their plight openly before the traditional symbols of Wall Street, it would appear that Obama is failing in his attempt at global diversion from the place where popular anger should truly lie: Congress, Senate, and of course, the White House, without whose (and by 'whose' here we clearly envision Tim Geithner, Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke) blessings Wall Street would not exist in its current form. Yet it does, and many have figured that out. According to a brand new poll by The Hill, "in the minds of likely voters, Washington, not Wall Street, is primarily to blame for the financial crisis and the subsequent recession. The movement appears to have struck a chord with progressive voters, but it does not seem to represent the feelings of the wider public. The Hill poll found that only one in three likely voters blames Wall Street for the country’s financial troubles, whereas more than half — 56 percent — blame Washington. Moreover, when it comes to the political consequences of the protest, voters tend to believe that there are more perils than positives for Obama and the Democrats." Sorry Obama, your attempt to demonize bankers (who richly deserve the public pariah status they have achieved, not least of due to the in vitro world they occupy, where anything less than $1 million is pocket change) has failed, and the people recognize that real social change, one that must and will impact Wall Street, has to begin with the commodity most often purchased  by Wall Street: politicians... such as yourself.

Is Goldman About To Report Only The Second Loss Since Its 1999 IPO?

For all its criticisms, if there is one thing one can say about Goldman, is that unlike their pathetic TBTF cousins in the US financial industry (JPMorgan, Citi, and shortly Morgan Stanley and Bank of Countrywide Lynch), it can report a loss like a man. Which, in less than 24 hours, it may have to do, for only the second time since its 1999 IPO. As Bloomberg notes, tomorrow the market expects the vampire squid to announce at 8:00am Eastern that it had a loss driven by lower revenues and debt and equity marks. Also, unlike the "others", we are confident Goldman will not hide behind such blatant accounting gimmicks as DVA and loan loss reserve releases (the second because the firm never got into the lending business... on the other hand, the FDIC-insured bank also has yet to open any ATMs, making one wonder just why it continues to have taxpayer backing as a bank holding company, but we digress). Here is what to expect tomorrow from Viniar and Blankfein, courtesy of Bloomberg. Naturally the one thing nobody expects is the announcement of a succession event at the top. Considering the recent step function in popular "appreciation" of financial innovation, we believe a Blankfein phase-out announcement could be in the works. One thing is certain: Ferrari dealerships will not be happy come Christmas as bonuses this year will be poor to quite poor, if any.

Throw Away The Shackles Of Your Birinyi Rulers And Be Free! Hungarian No Longer Bull; Now Just bull

Hark - either the end is nigh, or we are about to see one of the biggest market melt-ups in history: the man who conceived, developed, and distributed the Birinyi Ruler to a Comcast financial comedy cable channel near you, and to late night comedy in financial circles everywhere, is no longer a Bull. He is merely a bull, which is the also the first word one may apply to another very appropriate word to describe his predictions from early on in the year. For those who have their ultrasound babel fish on, here it is: "The S&P 500 has been perilously close to a 20 per cent decline in recent weeks which would, by definition, terminate the bull market which began in March 2009. Given the economic circumstances and the continuing political turmoil on both sides of the Atlantic, most commentators believe it is only a matter of time before such a landmark is reached. Having been bullish, I am – as expected – disappointed but not undaunted. I remain bullish if only now with a lower case “b”. Some months ago I conceded that making market forecasts was increasingly difficult as they entailed an understanding of American politics, Chinese monetary and financial policy, Greek and Italian attitudes, German elections in addition to the usual economics, corporate developments and actions and comments by the Federal Reserve Board." Obviously, all these are superfluous 'things' that a man of Birinyi's intellect should not need to be concerned by. After all, what is good is the 'ruler' for if not to predict the future? But before you go ahead and pledge a 4th lien on your 3rd born to go all in stocks, here is the Notorious BIGGS, who bottom ticked the market a few weeks back with laser-like precision : "Barton Biggs Increases Bullish Bets in Traxis Macro Fund to 65%." Needless to say, every time Biggs has done something, the market has done the opposite. So for all those confused what they should do when two of the market's most hilarious permabulls say the opposite things, fear not - i) you are not alone, and ii) just buy a collocated vacuum tube-based algo, and watch as the High Frontrunning Trading algo makes you rich beyond your wildest dreams.

Graham Summers’ Weekly Market Forecast (Resistance Edition)
Phoenix Capital...
10/17/2011 - 14:17
Given the economic backdrop in the US and Europe, I remain convinced we’re breaking out of this range to the low side. I’ve warned to get defensive for over a month now. This week looks to be a good...

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