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You Know You Are A Conspiracy Theorist If...
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Meanwhile In Downtown Camden
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Spanish Military Threatens Treason As Catalonia Seeks Secession Referendum
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By John Mauldin, The Market Oracle:
There is an intense debate going on in the first-class cabin of
Economics Airlines about the direction in which our plane should be
pointed. And while those of us back in the cheap seats don’t get to help
decide, knowing where we will land is of intense interest to all of us.
This week we listen in on the debate, in the form of speeches and
academic postings passed back from first class for the rest of us to
read. This type of debate also occurred when Greenspan held rates down
at an abnormally low level for a very long time. The unintended
consequence of that move was a housing and debt/leverage bubble. Are
there potential unintended consequences to Bernanke’s current monetary
policy, which some are calling Quantitative Easing Infinity? I suggest
you put up your tray tables and fasten your seatbelts – the ride could
get bumpy as we explore QE Infinity: Unintended Consequences.
The Federal Reserve (that is, the FOMC – Federal Open Market Committee) last week gave us an open-ended quantitative easing policy. Most of the world thought they would only give us QE3, and more than a few observers expressed surprise that the Bernanke-led Fed decided not only to continue Operation Twist at its current level but also to buy an additional $40 billion a month of agency mortgage bonds. This latter easing policy will continue “(i)f the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially…”
Read More @ TheMarketOracle.co.uk
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The Federal Reserve (that is, the FOMC – Federal Open Market Committee) last week gave us an open-ended quantitative easing policy. Most of the world thought they would only give us QE3, and more than a few observers expressed surprise that the Bernanke-led Fed decided not only to continue Operation Twist at its current level but also to buy an additional $40 billion a month of agency mortgage bonds. This latter easing policy will continue “(i)f the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially…”
Read More @ TheMarketOracle.co.uk
The Election Is Irrelevant
Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 5 hours ago
As far as I’m concerned, the election is irrelevant. One happens to be from
Boston and one from Chicago, and whoever wins, their friends are going to
do well, but other than that America is not going to do well. There’s very
little difference in any of these guys. None of them understands the
problem. These are the guys that got us into trouble. You expect them to
get us out? - *in The Fiscal Times*
*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful
international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New
York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall St... more »
Winners Lose As Safety Outperforms
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UPDATE: CAT is sliding AH after noting higher chance of recession and cuts 2015 EPS guidance from $15-20 to $12-18 - Slide attached
Following Friday's two-year high volume levels on the NYSE - as OPEX and rebalancing dominated - today saw reversion to the dismal mean in both cash and futures market volumes. It seems sell-the-news was the meme today as builders (LEN earnings exuberance) and AAPL (less than whisper sales) sold off and broadly speaking we saw the month/quarter's winners lagging as safety and stability lead the way.
In Preview Of Inevitable Unhappy QEnding, Overeager German Safecrackers Blow Up Bank
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Why Size Matters, Fundamentals Don't, And What's Priced Into Stocks
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With $1.6 Trillion In FDIC Deposit Insurance Expiring, Are Negative Bill Rates Set To Become The New Normal?
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As we noted on several occasions in the past ten days, as a result of QE3 and its imminent transformation to QE4, which will merely be the current monetization configuration but without the sterilization of new long-term bond purchases, the Fed's balance sheet is expected to grow by over $2 trillion in the next two years. This also means that the matched liability on the Fed's balance sheet, reserves and deposits, will grow by a like amount. So far so good. However, as Bank of America points out today, there may be a small glitch: as a reminder on December 31, 2012 expires the FDIC's unlimited insurance on noninterest-bearing transaction accounts at which point it will revert back to $250,000. Currently there is about $1.6 trillion in deposits that fall under this umbrella, or essentially the entire amount in new deposit liabilities that will have to be created as a result of QEternity. The question is what those account holders will do, and how will the exit of deposits, once those holding them realize they no longer are government credit risk and instead are unsecured bank credit risk, impact the need to ramp up deposit building. One very possible consequence: negative bill rates as far as the eye can see.
Pavlov's Dogs - An Overview Of Market Risk
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The Greatest Trick The Devil Ever Pulled
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Kaminsky: "The Bernank Is Now A Kamikaze Pilot"
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In a little under four minutes, CNBC's Gary Kaminsky provides a voice of reason amid the 'Gold-and-Bonds-are-in-a-bubble-but-Apple-is-awesome' meme. Reflecting on some of the mind-blowingly crazy statistics of this market's recent inexorable rise, central bank balance sheet eruptions, and valuations; Kaminsky (an ex-PM as opposed to 'reporter') provides six clarifying words: "We know this will end ugly!" From the lack of credibility of any Fed exit, to the explosion of the monetary base, Gary moves back and forth from Japan as an ever-more-obvious template for our path past the Keynesian endpoint. Finally, he concludes that: "Bernanke is a kamikaze pilot... experimenting [in monetary policy] and is destined to fail."
Ultimate Survival Deluxe Survival Kit - Orange (Google Affiliate Ad)
by Staff Report, The Daily Bell:
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Under The Bernank, a more open and forceful Federal Reserve … In what might be his final years as chairman of the Federal Reserve, The Bernank is transforming the U.S. central bank, seeking to shed its reclusive habits and make it a constant presence in bolstering the economy. The new approach would make the Fed’s policies more responsive to the needs of the economy — and likely more forceful, because what the Fed is planning to do would be much clearer. A key feature of the strategy would be producing a detailed set of scenarios for when and how the Fed would intervene, which would mark a dramatic shift for an organization that throughout its history has been famously opaque. – Washington Post
Dominant Social Theme: The Federal Reserve is maturing with the times.
Free Market Analysis: More Fed promotions; it never ceases, of course. Control money and you control society. And those “in charge” have a vested interest in ensuring the social solvency of the Fed.
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com
BTFD...
by David Schectman, MilesFranklin.com:
The following bulletin from Jim Sinclair explains where gold is headed
and who will benefit. In typical fashion, Sinclair’s information is
superb but his writing style isn’t exactly clear. In fact, after
reading it, my wife asked me what he meant by “7 touches”? (See
following bulletin) Half a dozen years ago it was fashionable within
the gold community to point out that a few bullion banks (Goldman Sachs,
JP Morgan and a few friends) were always “short” gold. Sinclair stated
then, that the bankers weren’t stupid and as the bull market advanced,
the same bankers that were “short” would be the ones who were “long” and
they would make a fortune on their gold holdings. That’s right, they
would be “long,” not “short!” At the time, not many people believed him
– but here he is, in the bulletin below, once again pointing out who is accumulating gold. Low and behold, it’s the very same bankers that are being blamed for being “short.” Of course, they are “short,” short paper gold and “long” the physicals. That is exactly what Sinclair is alluding to. But it’s not just the bankers that are accumulating physical gold; it’s also “big money.” They are starting to protect their wealth against the coordinated central bank (QE) money debasement from the Fed, the ECB and Japan.
Read More @ MilesFranklin.com
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Read More @ MilesFranklin.com
Total Donations over the last 3 1/2 years. approx $165.00 (Thank You). Donations will help defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle the donations. Thank you for your contribution.
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from BusinessInsider:
The BLS’ report
on the number of new jobless claims filed in the week ending 15
September 2012 indicates that the pace of layoffs in the United States
is accelerating at the fastest pace since the 2007 recession began.
At present, the average rate of increase in the number of initial unemployment insurance benefit claims filed each week since the most recent trend began on 7 July 2012 has reached 2,800 per week. That figure is greater than the average rate of increase of 1,641 layoffs per week that was recorded as the U.S. entered into recession in December 2007. That figure held through 26 July 2008, when high oil and gasoline prices accelerated the recession into high gear, increasing the rate of new layoffs in the U.S. to 7,599 per week.
You can see how today’s rate of increase in the rate of new jobless claims being filed compares with those observed in the 2007 recession in our chart showing the residual distribution of the major trends for layoffs since the beginning of 2006 (see here for a description of the primary trends indicated on our chart below):
Read More @ BusinessInsider.com
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At present, the average rate of increase in the number of initial unemployment insurance benefit claims filed each week since the most recent trend began on 7 July 2012 has reached 2,800 per week. That figure is greater than the average rate of increase of 1,641 layoffs per week that was recorded as the U.S. entered into recession in December 2007. That figure held through 26 July 2008, when high oil and gasoline prices accelerated the recession into high gear, increasing the rate of new layoffs in the U.S. to 7,599 per week.
You can see how today’s rate of increase in the rate of new jobless claims being filed compares with those observed in the 2007 recession in our chart showing the residual distribution of the major trends for layoffs since the beginning of 2006 (see here for a description of the primary trends indicated on our chart below):
Read More @ BusinessInsider.com
by Susanne Posel, Occupy Corporatism:
On August 13th a new class of 231 FEMA Corps members graduated to assist the US government in future disaster preparedness whether state sponsored or natural. These members trained with at the Corporation for National and Community Service (CNCS) and will be leaders at FEMA’s Center for Domestic Preparedness where they will be assigned specific roles ranging from community relations to Disaster Recovery Center support.
The CNCS is a federal agency that “engages more than five million Americans in service through Senior Corps, AmeriCorps, and Learn and Serve America, and leads President Obama’s national call to service initiative, United We Serve.”
They utilize local communities for the sake of public-private partnerships to rework the structure of those communities to serve the needs of the federal government. By implanting pro-government propaganda, using rural resources for the benefit of private sector corporations under the guise of “fostering civic engagement”, the CNCS revisions the American landscape to reflect their agendas as directed by the US government.
Read More @ OccupyCorporatism.com
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On August 13th a new class of 231 FEMA Corps members graduated to assist the US government in future disaster preparedness whether state sponsored or natural. These members trained with at the Corporation for National and Community Service (CNCS) and will be leaders at FEMA’s Center for Domestic Preparedness where they will be assigned specific roles ranging from community relations to Disaster Recovery Center support.
The CNCS is a federal agency that “engages more than five million Americans in service through Senior Corps, AmeriCorps, and Learn and Serve America, and leads President Obama’s national call to service initiative, United We Serve.”
They utilize local communities for the sake of public-private partnerships to rework the structure of those communities to serve the needs of the federal government. By implanting pro-government propaganda, using rural resources for the benefit of private sector corporations under the guise of “fostering civic engagement”, the CNCS revisions the American landscape to reflect their agendas as directed by the US government.
Read More @ OccupyCorporatism.com
IMF
managing director Christine Lagarde has said that Europe can only solve
its debt crisis if countries such as the US bring their banks under
control.
by Andrew Trotman, The Telegraph:
Speaking ahead of key meetings for the IMF and the World Bank early
next month, Ms Lagarde called on political leaders to “get beyond the
crisis in the eurozone” as “we have challenges everywhere”.
Asked in an internal IMF interview what needs to be done to solve the current crisis, she replied: “It’s obvious it will take a lot of cooperative action between all players – and not just cooperative talk, but cooperative action by way of implementing some of the decisions that have been made and some of the decisions that need to be made.
“But if you were to ask me, it’s a question of really trying to get beyond the crisis in the eurozone, asserting a medium-term plan for countries like the US and Japan, and making sure that some of the issues that actually created the crisis back five years ago are really dealt with, not just half dealt with. And I’m particularly thinking about the financial sector.”
Read More @ Telegraph.co.uk
by Andrew Trotman, The Telegraph:
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Asked in an internal IMF interview what needs to be done to solve the current crisis, she replied: “It’s obvious it will take a lot of cooperative action between all players – and not just cooperative talk, but cooperative action by way of implementing some of the decisions that have been made and some of the decisions that need to be made.
“But if you were to ask me, it’s a question of really trying to get beyond the crisis in the eurozone, asserting a medium-term plan for countries like the US and Japan, and making sure that some of the issues that actually created the crisis back five years ago are really dealt with, not just half dealt with. And I’m particularly thinking about the financial sector.”
Read More @ Telegraph.co.uk
by Terence P. Jeffrey, CNSnews:
A poll conducted by Monmouth University
and cited in a Government Accountability Office report published
yesterday indicates that only 15 percent of Americans say they are “not
at all concerned” that the use of drones by law enforcement will invade
their privacy.
At the same time, 67 percent say they are opposed to police using drones to issue speeding tickets.
The GAO report said that law enforcement agencies are “the greatest potential users” of small drones within the United States.
“Domestically, state and local law enforcement entities represent the greatest potential users of small UAS [unmanned aircraft systems] in the near term because they can offer a simple and cost effective solution for airborne law enforcement activities,” said the GAO report.
“For example, federal officials and one airborne law enforcement official said that a small UAS costing between $30,000 and $50,000 is more likely to be purchased by state and local law enforcement entities because the cost is nearly equivalent to that of a patrol car and much less than a manned aircraft,” said GAO. “According to an industry trade group, local law enforcement can potentially choose from about 146 different types of small UAS being manufactured by about 69 different companies in the U.S.”
Read More @ CNSnews.com
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At the same time, 67 percent say they are opposed to police using drones to issue speeding tickets.
The GAO report said that law enforcement agencies are “the greatest potential users” of small drones within the United States.
“Domestically, state and local law enforcement entities represent the greatest potential users of small UAS [unmanned aircraft systems] in the near term because they can offer a simple and cost effective solution for airborne law enforcement activities,” said the GAO report.
“For example, federal officials and one airborne law enforcement official said that a small UAS costing between $30,000 and $50,000 is more likely to be purchased by state and local law enforcement entities because the cost is nearly equivalent to that of a patrol car and much less than a manned aircraft,” said GAO. “According to an industry trade group, local law enforcement can potentially choose from about 146 different types of small UAS being manufactured by about 69 different companies in the U.S.”
Read More @ CNSnews.com
by Dan Denning, Daily Reckoning.com.au:
Let’s begin the week with a cynical thought experiment. It’s really a
conclusion about what’s going on in the financial markets. And the
conclusion is this: the value of financial assets and currencies is
being deliberately crashed in order to transfer wealth from the public
to a small group of global elites.
Sounds crazy right? Maybe even cranky? Call the Cheeseburger Police! We’ll get to them shortly. But first…
The typical result of credit booms and busts is to transfer ownership of real assets and productive businesses from the public to the insiders. In our thought experiment, the Federal Reserve exists to make this happen in a way that doesn’t alert to the public to what’s really going on. The insiders – or anyone who knows how these things work – sell to the public in the mania phase. The panic and crash phase of a bust is when the public realises the game is up.
Prices crash and liquidity disappears in the bust. Real assets and the share prices of real businesses are left lying around on the ground. If your money didn’t get destroyed in the crash, all the good assets can be bought cheap. The end result is that the middle class ends up poorer and the financial/political elites end up owning all the good stuff.
Read More @ DailyReckoning.com.au
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Sounds crazy right? Maybe even cranky? Call the Cheeseburger Police! We’ll get to them shortly. But first…
The typical result of credit booms and busts is to transfer ownership of real assets and productive businesses from the public to the insiders. In our thought experiment, the Federal Reserve exists to make this happen in a way that doesn’t alert to the public to what’s really going on. The insiders – or anyone who knows how these things work – sell to the public in the mania phase. The panic and crash phase of a bust is when the public realises the game is up.
Prices crash and liquidity disappears in the bust. Real assets and the share prices of real businesses are left lying around on the ground. If your money didn’t get destroyed in the crash, all the good assets can be bought cheap. The end result is that the middle class ends up poorer and the financial/political elites end up owning all the good stuff.
Read More @ DailyReckoning.com.au
by Bradley S. Yates, Silver Gold Bull:
QE3 is now a reality to the tune of $40B per month
in mortgage backed security purchases. Markets had come to widely
expect (90% probability was the number floating around pre-announcement
in bond markets), but I certainly did not expect this aggressive of a
move. I was expecting more of a UK-style funding-for-lending scheme that
would promote direct lending to small business and individuals, but Fed
officials seem to prefer market intervention instead of direct
financing. They also extended their low-for-long pledge to maintain
accommodative interest rate policy until late 2015, which interestingly
is beyond Bernanke’s current term.
To put this number in perspective, the ‘normal’ level of Treasury securities held by the Fed was between $700-$800 Billion. QE1 (launched Nov 2008) brought peak holdings to about $2.1 Trillion. November 2010 brought about Son of Quantitative Easing or QE2, which purchased an additional $600 Billion over the course of 9 months (about $60B/month). Thursday’s announcement did not have a total figure in mind, but declared for $40B per month in mortgage purchases instead of Treasuries. Keep in mind with all of these numbers that a fair amount of the original purchases have since matured,
Read More @ SilverGoldBull.com
Total Donations over the last 3 1/2 years. approx $165.00 (Thank You). Donations will help defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle the donations. Thank you for your contribution.
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To put this number in perspective, the ‘normal’ level of Treasury securities held by the Fed was between $700-$800 Billion. QE1 (launched Nov 2008) brought peak holdings to about $2.1 Trillion. November 2010 brought about Son of Quantitative Easing or QE2, which purchased an additional $600 Billion over the course of 9 months (about $60B/month). Thursday’s announcement did not have a total figure in mind, but declared for $40B per month in mortgage purchases instead of Treasuries. Keep in mind with all of these numbers that a fair amount of the original purchases have since matured,
Read More @ SilverGoldBull.com
Total Donations over the last 3 1/2 years. approx $165.00 (Thank You). Donations will help defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle the donations. Thank you for your contribution.
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