Monday, November 23, 2015

"How Is This Possible" Deutsche Bank Asks, Looking At The Canary In The Junk Bond Mine



"The hardest questions we are trying to reconcile here are how is that possible to see all these signs of weakness under the surface being balanced by very strong equity markets and upbeat employment picture. One of these sides has to be wrong..."



Key Economic Events In The Holiday-Shortened Week

It may be a holiday shortened week in the US with Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales on deck (some of which may be starting as soon as Wednesday) but there is a lot of macro data to digest in the next few days.



National Economic Activity Contracted For 3rd Month In A Row, Chicago Fed Signals

National Activity contracted for the 3rd month in a row according to The Chicago Fed's index. Printing -0.04 (missing expectations of +0.05 for the 9th time of the last 11 months), CFNAI has now been below 0 (contraction) for 8 months this year. Under the surface the biggest problem is the collapse in the sales-to-inventories index to cycle lows (contracting 7 of the last 8 months).



Oil Tumbles Back Into Red As Saudi "Whatever It Takes" Jawboning Is Not Enough

Just 2 hours after news broke of Saudi officials discussing the need to do "whatever it takes" to stabilize the oil market - sending crude soaring - half the gains are gone. With the algos tagging Friday's highs, WTI Crude has tumbled back into the red from Friday's close as traders want action not words to solve the massive global oil glut...



Is Santa Poised To Fill Christmas Stockings With Coal?

Perhaps a retail coals-in-the-stockings Christmas will awaken the mainstream media to the reality that recession is now a global phenomenon.



Commodites Plunge To New 16 Year Low; Oil Slides On Venezuela Warning, Soaring Dollar

A big catalyst for the ongoing collapse in the Bloomberg commodity index which just hit a fresh 16 year low, is the relentless surge in the dollar, with the DXY rising as high as 99.98 the highest since April, as a result of rising prospects for a December U.S. rake hike (odds are now at 70%, up from 36% a month ago) boosting currency differentials and flows into the USD, making commodities more expensive for buyers in other currencies.



Argentina Throws Out The Peronists In "Historic" Presidential Election

"Today is a historic day. It’s the changing of an era. We can live in an Argentina without poverty, where we can all aspire to have our own homes with running water and a sewage system." 
"The question is whether this is going to be something like the rebirth of Argentina or another failed dream that people get excited about, but then they can’t overcome the challenges.”



Oil Surges After Saudi Arabia Pulls A Draghi, Says Will Do "Whatever It Takes" For Stable Oil Market

The oil producers are rapidly learning from the central banks how to jawbone markets higher. With both Brent and WTI sliding as recently as ten minutes ago, suddenly a buying frenzy was unleashed following a Bloomberg headline which cited the Saudi Press Agency, according to which the world's largest crude exporter was ready to pull a Draghi and would do "whatever it takes" for a stable oil market, and that it would cooperate with OPEC and non-OPEC members for stable prices.



It's Official: Allergan, Pfizer To Combine In Biggest Ever Tax-Inversion, Defy Jack Lew

As was extensively reported over the weekend, the Pfizer-Allergan tax-inverting, reverse-merger (in which the far smaller Allergan would end up "buying" Pfizer, courtesy of fungible debt which doesn't care where it ends up as long as there are cash flows) would be announced this morning, and sure enough, moments ago the long-awaited press release finally hit.



Global Stocks Fall For First Time In Six Days As Commodity Rout Spills Over Into Stocks

As a result of the global commodity weakness, global stocks have fallen for the first time in six days as the sell-off in commodities continued, dragging both US equity futures and European stocks lower. However, putting this in context, last week the MSCI All Country World Index posted its biggest weekly gain in six weeks: alas, without a coincident rebound in commodity prices, it will be merely the latest dead cat bounce.



Eurozone Composite PMI Surges To 54 Month High Even As ECB Prepares To Launch More QE To "Boost Economy"

With the ECB expected to announce a boost to QE and pushing rates even lower into record negative territory, perhaps Markit did not get the memo to double seasonally adjust the seasonally adjusted European manufacturing and services PMI survey data, when instead of providing cover for Draghi ("look, the economy is slowing down even more, surely you must unleash more printing") it reported that not only the Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 from 52.3, a 19 month high and above the highest estimate (range was 51.5 to 52.6), not only the Service PMI rose to 54.6 from 54.1, a 54 month high and also above the highest estimate (range of 53.5-54.4), but the Composite PMI soared to the highest level recorded since May 2011, rising from 53.9 to 54.4.



Copper Futures Crash Close To '1' Handle Amid Record 14th Daily Drop In A Row

Front-month (Dec) copper futures are trading near $200 ($200.15) for the first time since March 2009 as the collapse in the global economic indicator extends to an unprecedented 14th day in a row. The ongoing collapse appears to have finally impacted Chinese equities which have given up the morning's gains and are drifting rapidly lower. Overall, as Goldman warns, the metals market appears to be increasingly pricing concurrent and/or future weakness in China’s old economy.


The U.S. Dollar Has Already Caused A Global Recession And Now The Fed Is Going To Make It Worse



by Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse Blog:

The 7th largest economy on the entire planet, Brazil, has been gripped by a horrifying recession, as has much of the rest of South America.  But it isn’t just South America that is experiencing a very serious economic downturn.  We have just learned that Japan (the third largest economy in the world) has lapsed into recession.  So has Canada.  So has Russia.  The dominoes are starting to fall, and it looks like the global economic crisis that has already started is going to accelerate as we head into the end of the year.  At this point, global trade is already down about 8.4 percent for the year, and last week the Baltic Dry Shipping Index plummeted to a brand new all-time record low.  Unfortunately for all of us, the Federal Reserve is about to do something that will make this global economic slowdown even worse.
Read More…

You Can’t Handle The Paris False Flag TRUTH — Dr. Paul Craig Roberts


Dr. Paul Craig Roberts joins me to discuss the absurdity of the Paris Attack which is playing out just as Dr. Roberts expected. Like 9/11, the Paris “ISIS attacks” are being used to destroy people’s civil liberties in the name of “protecting them”. It’s the same worn out story propelled by the same CIA mockingbird media that’s been in control since John F Kennedy was murdered by the deep state. When will humanity wake up?

Kerry: Doubters of Global-warming Apocalypse Must Be Silenced

from The New American:
TIn a speech delivered November 10 at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia, Secretary of State John Kerry (shown) appeared to be intentionally amping up the already incendiary rhetoric aimed at those scientists and citizens who express doubt or skepticism about — or opposition to — the wild, apocalyptic claims of the climate-change choir. “The science tells us unequivocally, those who continue to make climate change a political fight put us all at risk,” Kerry said. “And we cannot sit idly by and allow them to do that.”
This was not the first time Secretary Kerry has made comments that lightly veil an implicit threat aimed at climate realists. Kerry, who has been beating the anthropogenic (manmade) global (AGW) warming drum loudly all year long, in preparation for the imminent UN Climate Summit in Paris, made a similar comment before the Atlantic Council in March.
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CNN Punished Its Own Journalist for Fulfilling a Core Duty of Journalism

by Glen Greenwald, The Intercept:

CNN yesterday suspended its global affairs correspondent, Elise Labott, for two weeks for the crime of posting a tweet critical of the House vote to ban Syrian refugees. Whether by compulsion or choice, she then groveled in apology. This is the original tweet along with her subsequent expression of repentance:
Read More…

Why We Aren’t Buying this Rally

from Wolf Street:

The market has recovered from the August and September lows bringing the S&P 500 back between 2,000 and 2,150 the trading range we’ve sat in most of the year. The price action in the CDS market does not confirm the bounce in equities though. The chart below is the S&P 500 and the investment grade CDS spread (inverted) going back to 2013. These two indices tend to move together since lower credit worries (lower CDS spreads) are a good signal for stocks, but as you can see in the chart these indices have diverged.
Typically in this type of situation, I look at the bond market for confirmation, and right now it is giving an early warning. The S&P 500 has rallied since August but CDS spreads have stayed flat signaling everything isn’t clear for a sustained rally. Additionally as I have noted here and here, the market rally has been narrow with fewer and fewer stocks leading the index higher which is also a sign the rally isn’t very strong.
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Authorities Are USING Paris Attacks To Rush New Mass Surveillance Laws

from Vigilant Citizen:
The CIA and government officials around the world are using the Paris attacks to push brand new surveillance laws. And it was all planned in advance.
While democratic systems usually take months (if not years) to pass new laws and legislation, it only took a few days after the Paris attacks to slap honest citizens with more surveillance laws. Several organizations are indeed capitalizing on the fear and panic caused by the attacks to bring forth a brand new agenda that takes a bold new step towards total government surveillance. What’s worse: Leaked information proves that authorities were waiting on a terror attack to go forward with their plan.
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The First GM Human Could Exist Within 2 Years

by Julie Fidler, Natural Society:
The biotech firm Editas Medicine says that humans who have had their DNA genetically modified could exist within the next 2 years. The company announced that it will soon start the first trials of what it calls a groundbreaking new technique.
U.S.-based Editas is striving to become the first lab in the world to edit the DNA of patients suffering from leber congenital amaurosis (LCA), a genetic condition that causes severe vision loss at birth. Some LCA patients also experience central nervous system conditions, such as epilepsy, developmental delays and motor skill impairment.
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Training Exercises Dovetail with Mass Shootings – What are the Odds?

by Jon Rappoport, Activist Post:
Note: Thanks to humansarefree.com. I found much information at the site, as well as links to relevant articles.
Whether mass shootings are approached as the mainstream reports them, or as false flags, staged scenarios, or outright hoaxes, there is a common thread which runs through some of them: official training exercises held just prior to, or at the same time as, the shootings.
I’m not trying to present an all-inclusive list here.
The November 13, 2015, Paris attacks: “Since the Charlie Hebdo attacks in January, from which 16 people died, Paris-area ambulance crews and emergency personnel have taken part in regular exercises designed to test their readiness for possible attacks. One such exercise was held on Friday morning, the day of the latest terror attacks. In a twist of fate, the simulated emergency was a mass shooting, according to Dr. Mathieu Raux, emergency room chief at the Pitié-Salpetrière hospital in Paris.” (Bloomberg, 11/17/15, “Hours Before the Terror Attacks, Paris Practiced for a Mass Shooting”)
Read More


"High Profile" CEO Of China Brokerage "Disappears": "Company Says Can't Find Him"

On November 18, the Chairman and CEO of Guotai Junan went missing, and given what we know about China's crackdown on anyone suspected of engaging in activities that might send stocks lower, you know what that means...




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