Tuesday, November 3, 2015

The Truth Arrives: JPM Slams ZIRP - "It Has Been Impeding Rather Than Promoting Economic Recovery"



"zero interest rate policy actually reduces demand in the economy, prompting the Federal Reserve to prescribe even further doses of a medicine that, for a long time, has been impeding rather than promoting economic recovery."
- JPM's David Kelly



How The US Government Is Raiding A Citizen Victim Relief Fund To Pay For General Expenses

One of the primary “talking points” used by the Department of Justice to defend its practice of systematically deeming corporate criminals above the law via its used of deferred prosecution agreements, has been an emphasis on how much money it has earned in fines from criminal corporations. These fines were supposed to be distributed to help victimized American citizens. Not any more.


Ignorance is Far less Dangerous than False Knowledge

from Daily Reckoning:

Michael Smithson, a social scientist at Australian National University uses this analogy about knowledge and ignorance:
“The larger the island of knowledge grows, the longer the shoreline – where knowledge meets ignorance – extends. The more we know, the more we can ask. ….Answers breed questions. Curiosity isn’t merely a static disposition but rather a passion of the mind. ….Mapping the coast of the island of knowledge, to continue the metaphor, requires a grasp of the psychology of ambiguity. 
The ever-expanding shoreline, where questions are born of answers, is terrain characterized by vague and conflicting information. The resulting state of uncertainty, psychologists have shown, intensifies our emotions: not only exhilaration and surprise, but also confusion and frustration.”
Read More…



Nasdaq Surges To Most Overbought In A Year As 'Greed' Nears 2015 Peak

The last time The Nasdaq was this overbought, the index peaked and dropped 7% in the next week. With 'Greed' near 2015 highs, perhaps the decoupling ofVIX from stocks suggests many have similar ideas of hedging these exuberant gains.


China's "Ghost Capitol Building" Has Been Overrun By Vagrant Food Vendors





Twitter Proves "Innovation" Is Alive And Well By Copying FaceBook's "Like", Replaces "Star" With "Heart"

Who says innovation is dying in the US tech sector?



US Factory Orders Miss Again, Drops Year-Over-Year For 11th Month In A Row

It's just factory orders...ignore it. For the 11th month in a row, US Factory Orders have fallen year-over-year, re-acclerating the most recent drop to -6.9%, something that has not happened outside of a recession in history. In fact, adjusting for the one-off Boeing surge in July 2014 this is biggest Y/Y drop since October 2008. Month-over-month, orders fell 1.0% (more than expected), down for the 11th month in the last 14. The good news is that inventories dropped 0.4% (for the 3rd month in a row) but that will further hurt GDP, but, unfortunately, inventories-to-shipments remain at 1.35x cycle highs.



Miracle In Manhattan? - ISM New York Spikes By Most In 12 Years (From Lowest Since 2009)

File this under 'WTF' - despite job growth and purchase volume dropping for the 2nd consecutive month for the first time in 3 years, ISM New York reported a headline print of 65.8 in October. The jump from 44.5 (6 year lows) in September is the largest MoM jump since Nov 2003... Under the surface it was weak all around except for one thing... "outlook" - or hope - which soared from 62.8 to 74.0 (despite a plunge in expected demand 6 months out). All in all - we reiterate our initial thoughts - WTF!?



l-Qaeda Calls ISIS Leader "Feeble, Failure Person," ISIS Calls Al-Qaeda A Bunch Of "Donkeys"

"The manhaj [method] of destruction, sowing and stirring dissension and corruptions, confusing efforts, making takfir [branding as an infidel] upon those who disagree with them, then this is a manhaj of a feeble and failure [person] who has no perfection except ruin,"



Bring On 'Operation Switch' - Bill Gross Calls For A Reverse 'Operation Twist' To "Benefit Savers And The Economy"

"But they won’t, you know. Yellen and Draghi believe in the Taylor model and the Phillips curve. Gresham’s law will be found in the history books, but his corollary has little chance of making it into future economic textbooks. The result will likely be a continued imbalance between savings and investment, a yield curve too flat to support historic business models, and an anemic 1-2% rate of real economic growth in even the most robust developed countries."



WTI Crude Algo Buying Panic Takes Out Yesterday's Highs

The Keyser Soze bid is back... panic buying crude futures to run stops above yesterday's high before being gone... just like that...



New Poll Shows Carson Overtaking Trump In National Poll

The mainstream media is cock-a-hoop after CNBC-parent NBC and Rupert Murdoch-owned Wall Street Journal reveal a new national poll that shows notjust Trump being beaten in 2nd place by Ben Carson (who is currently on a book tour) but also shows Marco Rubio surging (from 4% to 11%) if one wanted to spin it that way. Softly-spoken Carson, with 29% of the GOP primary voters polled, is ahead of Trump (23%) for the first time in the campaign, tripling his support since July (and as WSJ reports is the first Republican to top 50% when voters 2nd and 3rd choice are combined). On the other side of the scale, Bush's support is collapsing as Cruz and Rubio accelerate.



Lack Of Participation Could Become Weighty Issue For Stock Rally

Participation among all stocks in the recent stock rally, as measured by an equal-weight index, has been relatively weak – as it has been since last spring. This issue should not simply be viewed in the context of judging the quality of the bounce off of the September lows. It should be viewed as a larger, more significant challenge to the longer-term sustainability of the stock market rally. For, even as the major average are once again approaching their former highs, they are doing so on the backs of a diminishing number of stocks.



US Officials Outline "Secret" Summer Operation To Stop Flow Of Dollars To ISIS

In the latest example of Washington playing catch up in the global "war" on terror PR battle, “officials familiar with the matter” have told WSJ about a concerted effort to cut off the flow of dollars to ISIS. Allegedly, the US became concerned about the amount of hard currency being shipped to Iraq over the summer. The problem: the requested amounts didn’t seem to be consistent with the country’s economic fundamentals and so, the US cut off Iraq’s access to dollar funding, nearly plunging the country into crisis.



Infrared Satellite Reveals Heat Flash At Time Of Russian Airplane Disaster

"U.S. intelligence analysts believe it could have been some kind of explosion on the aircraft itself, either a fuel tank or a bomb."



Thousands Of Shorts Royally Crushed After Activision Acquires King Digital

Call it an example of an abbreviated public lifecycle. After IPOing at $22.50 just last March and then promptly tumbling, Candy Crush maker King Digital was stuck in no man's land: demand for its products was promptly waning and the organic growth its underwriters had promised was nowhere to be found. The fundamentally savvy hedge funds sniffed this out and promptly jumped on board what seemed like a royal flush slam dunk to zero. And then, overnight, out of nowhere Activision decided to crush the Candy Crush shorts, who had built up a short stake amounting to 25% of the float, when it announced it would acquire the company for $5.9 billion or $18/share, a 16% premium to the previous day closing price... and also a 20% discount to the IPO price.


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