Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Hedge Funds Furiously Dumped The Rally; Selling Was "Biggest In Nearly Two Years"

"Net sales last week by hedge funds were the biggest in nearly two years and the fourth-largest in our data history. This follows  near-record levels of net buying by this group in early January."

In Latest Shock Video, Migrants Maul Elderly Germans In Munich Metro

The Last Time These Five Outlier Events Coincided Was In February 2009

(i) HY spreads above 800bp; (ii) oil down at least 25% yoy; (iii) S&P 500 EPS is negative yoy; (iv) Technicals are weak (% of stocks above 200d is below 15%) and (v) sentiment is terrible (AAII).

Retail Apocalypse: 2016 Brings Empty Shelves And Store Closings All Across America

Major retailers in the United States are shutting down hundreds of stores, and shoppers are reporting alarmingly bare shelves in many retail locations that are still open all over the country.  It appears that the retail apocalypse that made so many headlines in 2015 has gone to an entirely new level as we enter 2016.

Full Summary Of Chinese Actions To Prevent An All-Out Economic Collapse

Rewardless Risk

You know what negative rates are? They are the final stripping away of the illusion that central bankers somehow exist above and separately from domestic politics, that they are wise and able stewards of financial stability. Nope.

Ferrari Crashes

Another "no brainer" bites the dust. Ferrari is halted limit down in Milan trading and is crashing in US trading - now down over 40% from its "successful" IPO day highs...

This Is What You See When Go To Loser.com

Having skewered Kanye West, President Obama, and Al Gore, "Loser.com" has decided today's biggest non-winner is Iowa's runner-up...

Austria To Pay Migrants €500 To Go Back Where They Came From

Europe is having a decidedly difficult time coping with the influx of asylum seekers streaming into the bloc from the war-torn Mid-East. For its part, Austria has suspended Schengen and plans to deport 50,000 refugees. Fortunately, the country has a plan to boost "voluntary" repatriations.

Wall Street Drops The 'C' Word: Proclaims Junk Bond Risks Are Contained

To an economist, the economy can bear no recession. In times of heavy central bank activity, an economy can never be in recession. Those appear to be the only dynamic factors that drive economic interpretation in the mainstream. And they become circular in the trap of just these kinds of circumstances – the economy looks like it might fall into recession, therefore a central bank acts, meaning the economy will avoid recession; thus there will never be recession. The risks are all still there, and economists are still determined to downplay if not miss them entirely.

Dow Dumps 300 Points From Yesterday's Highs

Remember how awesome everything was yesterday? We have one question - how long before "investors" demand that AAPL is replaced by GOOG in The Dow?

The Flaw In The Fed Model: Recession Odds Are Far Higher Than Widely Believed

"We corrected the 3m10y spread for the level of the rates. Specifically we regressed the spread against the short rate, leaving the residual which by definition removes for the bias of the rate level and is centered at zero. Using this new curve as model input, we found the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is 46 percent, considerably higher than the original Fed model has predicted."

ISM New York Tumbles Most Since August As Revenues Crash

While Chicago's business outlook managed a miraculous bounce in January, New York did not. ISM New York printed 54.6, plunging most since August from December's 62.0 level. The extremely noisy time series continues to swing, this time lower, as the underlying components deteriorate with Revenues collapsing to at least 3 year lows.

WTI Crude Crashes Back Below $30

What goes up (on short-squeeze-driven hope and rumors), must come down (on supply, demand reality and denials)...

There Are Now 3,700 U.S. "Boots On The Ground" In Iraq

While global stock markets fail to rebound from recent lows, the US military is using every available distraction to build up the military presence in Iraq, and as the US defense secretary admitted moments ago: CARTER SAYS 3,700 U.S. `BOOTS ON THE GROUND' IN IRAQ TODAY.  Considering a typical battalion has anywhere between 300 and 800 soldiers, at what point does the Pentagon stop calling it the politically palatable "boots on the ground" and start calling it what it really is: an army?

This Is What A "Humbled" Donald Trump Sounds Like

“We finished second and I want to tell you, I’m just honored. I want to congratulate Ted, and all of the incredible candidates,”

10Y Treasury Yield Crashes To 10-Month Lows, Down 40bps Since Fed Rate-Hike

Since The Fed hiked rates mid-December, 10Y Treasury yields have plunged around 40bps with today's 6bps drop taking out 1.9015% Black Monday lows, all the way back to March 2015 lows.

Exxon Halts Stock Buybacks As Oil Production Surges

"In the first quarter of 2016, the corporation will continue to acquire shares to offset dilution in conjunction with its benefit plans and programs, but does not plan on making purchases to reduce shares outstanding."

European Bank Stocks Plunge To Cycle Lows - What NIRP Has Wrought

Coming to Japanese bank stocks soon...

The January Bear-ometer

The tendency for weakness following these dismal January’s is especially evident when contrasted with the median performance following all January’s, all “up” January’s, and even versus all “down” January’s.

Paying A Corporation To "Buy" Its Debt? It's Coming Soon, Jim Reid Warns

As a result of the rush to global NIRP, which now sees central banks and their sovereigns accounting for over 25% of global GDP, amounting to around $6 trillion in government bonds, trading with negative yields, a question has emerged: when will corporate bonds follow this govvie juggernaut and how soon until investors pay not government but companies to borrow? That is the focal piece in today's note by our favorite DB credit strategist Jim Reid who muses as follows.

In Biggest Ever Chinese Corporate Takeover, ChemChina Set To Buy Swiss Syngenta For $43 Billion

The ink was not yet dry on the seemingly endless Monsanto-Syngenta on again/off again takeover drama, when moments ago in a shocking development the newswires were lit up with news that a new, and very much unexpected, bidder has emerged for the Swiss pesticides giant Syngenta: China National Chemical Corp, or ChemChina as it is known, which according to WSJ and BBG is set to pay $43.7 billion to acquire a piece of Swiss corporate history.

Meet Your "Apolitical" Federal Reserve


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