Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders Win New Hampshire Primary - Live Feed

Literally one second after the polls closed at 8:00 pm, virtually all the media outlets, including AP, NBC and CNN, covering the NH primary called the outcome:
Republican winner: Donald Trump
Democrat winner: Bernie Sanders

Global Stocks Enter Bear Market

With stock markets from every continent plunging (Japan most recently), it should be no surprise that MSCI's world index has entered a bear market - dropping over 20% from its April 2015 record highs. However, as Gavekal notes, while much of the drag on global stocks is from collapsing emerging markets, the average developed market stock is down 23% in the past year.

This Is What Yellen Could Say Tomorrow To Unleash A Market Surge

"The dovish surprise is if she explicitly removes March from the hiking calendar (which would be Draghi-esque in front running the FOMC), broadly hints at a delay or expresses concern on downside risk to long term inflation or structural stagnation. The intention would be to show US households, business and investors that the Fed has their back... It is unlikely, however, that pointing to negative rates or QE4 would work, as investors are increasingly skeptical that more of the same policy mix would be effective in hitting final goals."


by Andy Hoffman, Miles Franklin:

How much clearer can I be that we are already amidst the “Big One” – with NO CHANCE of turning back?  And that, barring a global PPT miracle in the next 24 hours, the answer to the question I posed on Saturday – i.e., “will Wednesday be the long-awaited Yellen Reversal?” – is decidedly YES!  Not that she’ll join the ECB and BOJ at negative interest rates at tomorrow’s Humphrey-Hawkins Congressional testimony, of course.  No, that will come shortly thereafter; perhaps, at an “emergency” session – in the coming months (or weeks), depending on how successful said PPT efforts are.  As, per what I have shouted from the rooftops for the past three weeks, I do not believe there’s a chance the world survives 2016 without a catastrophic financial event.  As if what’s occurred already isn’t catastrophic enough!
Frankly, I could have just as easily titled today’s article “Bank of Japan on the verge of taking down the entire global monetary system.”  Or replaced Bank of Japan with ECB.
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Deutsche Bank Is Scared: "What Needs To Be Done" In Its Own Words

"So back to the  original question WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE. Simple?  Recognize the problem. It is not oil, it is not in the banks..it is a run on central bank liquidity, especially dollar based and there needs to be much more ($) liquidity.... Cash shd be charged interest -- put the micro chip in large denom notes/tax cash withdrawals.. encourage spending not saving."

Poking A Bear in the Eye

from The Daily Coin:

For those not paying attention to the build up of fire-power by both Russia and China consider what we know. If we take a look at some of the technological advances these countries have made it is no wonder Dr. Roberts explained how Russia dominated the U.S. in Pentagon performed war games. Russia didn’t just beat the U.S., they did it sixteen times out of sixteen scenarios! You read that right, sixteen times the U.S. lost in Pentagon performed war games.
First up from Sputnik, China is constructing their first overseas naval base:
China’s first overseas naval logistics support outpost is estimated to be built in Djibouti and it is reported that it would be used to take care of problems faced by China’s peacekeeping fleet, the Foreign Ministry told China Daily on Thursday.
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Germans and Japanese Play “ROLLOVER”!

by Bill Holter, JS Mineset:

After my last article we received two logical questions from readers. The first one pertaining to “gaps” and the Deutsche Bank derivative exposure, the second pertaining to Japan’s strong currency with negative yields while the debt to GDP levels are astronomical. Below is the first question;
“In the past you have warned about derivative exposure and now gapping.
One of my worst fears as a day trader on a derivatives platform is gapping. That is why I will never have an open position when the market is closed. Even then, that is not guaranteed.
A lot of trading platforms got hammered when the Swiss franc was revalued. Could you put out a letter for your readers explaining why for example the Deutsche Bank derivatives exposure is so dangerous in terms of gapping.”
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"Jingle Mail" Makes Comeback In Canada As Underwater Borrowers Mail Keys Back To Banks

"People [are] saying that we can't make a go of it and mail the keys to the bank. In the big cities, not so much because the average sale prices haven't really dropped much, we haven't seen the pain yet. But Calgary is getting pretty tight."

As Obama Plots Ban, Court Upholds “Fundamental Right to Assault Weapons”

by Mac Slavo, SHTFPlan:

The gun control crowd love clouding the issue about personal firearms – and misconstruing the idea that so-called “assault weapons” are too dangerous and too deadly for the American people to own.
They won, for a time, during the Clinton years. And now, they are pressuring Obama to once again use his executive action approach to put the 2nd Amendment in a restraining jacket.
But for now, the courts are pushing back. A Federal appeals court upheld the right to own guns like the AR-15 – celebrated and infamously portrayed as a “military-style” weapon despite being no deadlier than other firearms – challenging a Maryland assault weapons ban.
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Carnage Continues - Japanese Stocks Crash (Again) As Australia Enters Bear Market

Another night, another utter bloodbath in AsiaPac. Japanese markets are plunging (NKY down 600 from US session close and NKY is down 2200 points from post-NIRP highs) along with USDJPY as Kuroda readies himself to face parliament (and Abe says he "trusts Governor Kuroda.") Once again banks leading the pain. Australia is also in trouble, after admissions of cooked data sent stocks lower pushing the ASX 200 into bear market territory.

If It Looks Like A Recession, And Smells Like A Recession...

Then we must be "peddling fiction..."

America's Most Hated Man Martin Shkreli Sued Over Ol' Dirty Bastard Cartoons

Now, even the Wu-Tang Clan has become a liability for America's most hated biotech entrepreneur. “In a complaint filed on Tuesday in Manhattan federal court, Jason Koza said he never allowed his fan art depicting Wu-Tang members to be used in packaging for the hip-hop group's ‘Once Upon a Time in Shaolin,’ the sole copy of which Shkreli bought,” Reuters reports

The Walking Dead: Something Is Rotten In The Banking System

All signs are that things are in fact in danger of getting out of hand...

Nasdaq Volatility Spikes As "Exuberance Has Turned To Panic"

With the "generals" finally meeting their reality-maker, investors appear to be questioning the DotCom bubble-like highs as momentum collapses. "Exuberance has turned to panic pretty quickly," notes one asset manager and after a very rapid plunge in recent days, options traders are piling into protection at a pace not seen since Q4 2008.

Australia Admits Recent Stellar Job Numbers Were Cooked

John Fraser, the nation’s top economic bureaucrat, told a parliamentary panel in Canberra Wednesday that he held discussions on the employment figures with the chief statistician this week. There were some “technical issues” in October and November that may have made the employment figures “look a little bit better than otherwise would be the case,” he said. The technical issues relate to “rolling off” of participants in the labor survey.

If Knowledge Is Power, Is It Also Wealth?

New knowledge is always surprising, and it naturally disrupts "business as usual." So those earning money from business as usual must suppress the disruption arising from new knowledge to maintain their incomes/profits.

Sweden Arrests 14 For Plotting To Attack Migrant House With Axes, Iron Pipes

On Tuesday, in the latest sign that Swedes are becoming increasingly fed up with their government’s policy on refugees, more than a dozen people were arrested for planning an attack on an asylum center. Apparently, the men were plotting to use “axes, knives, and iron pipes” against a refugee shelter in Nynashamn, which is located some 60 kilometres (37 miles) south of Stockholm.

As Goldman Risk Explodes, President Says "No One Should Question Viability Of US Banks"

You know it's serious when the denials begin. Speaking in a Bloomberg TV interview, Goldman Sachs President Gary Cohn explained how "US banks took their medicine early," adding that "some European banks have been slow getting recapitalized." Having thrown his 'competitors' across the ocean under the bus, Cohn then unleashed his comments with regard Goldman's own spiking credit risk - demanding that "no one should question the viability of US banks."

"I Don't Trust Deutsche Bank" David Stockman Unleashes Truth Bomb: "When The Crunch Comes, Bank CEOs Lie"

"I don't trust Deutsche Bank. I don't trust what they're saying. And there's reason why the banks are being sold all across the world... because people are realizing once again that we don't know what's there [on bank balance sheets]."

Falling Oil Prices Not The Reason For America's Economic Woes

While falling oil prices sound like a plausible explanation for the abysmal financial numbers, anyone with a modicum of economic sense (which excludes much of the financial Establishment) can see that it is merely a smokescreen to obfuscate the real culprit.

What's Dragging Down European Banks: Oil And Commodity Exposure As High As 160% Of Tangible Book

As oil stays "lower for longer", and as many more European banks are forced to first reserve and then charge off their existing oil and gas exposure, expect much more diluation. Which, incidentlaly also explains why European bank stocks have been plunging since the beginning of the year as existing equity investors dump ahead of inevitable capital raises.

S&P Downgrades Banks With Highest Energy Exposure; Expects "Sharp Increase" In Non-Performing Assets

Moments ago S&P continued its downgrade cycle, this time taking the axe to the regional banks with the highest energy exposure due to "expectations for higher loan losses." Specifically, its lowered its long-term issuer credit ratings on four U.S. regional banks by one notch: BOK Financial Corp., Comerica Inc., Cullen/Frost  Bankers Inc., and Texas Capital Bancshares. The  outlooks on these banks are negative.

Deutsche Desperation & Twist Talk Save Stock Sheep From Slaughter

What The Charts Say: "Complacent" Bulls Remain As S&P Support Under Pressure

"Sell into strength" remains BofAML's tactical advice in US equities, especially as several indicators have dropped back toward the more complacent levels that coincided with previous S&P 500 highs. As Suttmeier concludes, "we still are not ruling out a cyclical correction within the larger secular bull market with risk toward 1600-1575."

Crude Confused After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Builds

WTI crude had tanked into the NYMEX close (by the most in 5 months) but managed to get back above $28 before fading into inventory data. Against expectations of a 3.6mm build, API reported a 2.4mm barrel crude build (the 5th weekly build in a row). Even more critically, API reported a 3.1mm Gasoline build (notably above the expected +400k build) and Cushing saw a 2nd weekly build of 715k. WTI ignored it initially but then decided to rally modestly before fading to unch.

The Return Of Crisis

Let me be blunt: this next crash will be far worse and more dramatic than any that has come before. Literally, the world has never seen anything like the situation we collectively find ourselves in today. The so-called Great Depression happened for purely monetary reasons. Before, during and after the Great Depression, abundant resources, spare capacity and willing workers existed in sufficient quantities to get things moving along smartly again once the financial system had been reset. This time there’s something different in the story line...

Anadarko Slashes Dividend By Over 80%

The Board of Directors of Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC) today declared a quarterly cash dividend on the company's common stock of 5 cents per share, payable March 23, 2016, to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 9, 2016. The quarterly dividend represents a 22-cent reduction from the prior level of 27 cents per share.

Goldman Capitulates: Closes Out 5 Of Its 6 Top Trades For 2016 With A Loss

Just 40 full days into 2016, not only has Goldman been closed out on its Top Trade for 2016, namely being long the USD vs both the Yen and the Euro, but virtually all of its other trades: according to a just released update, Goldman has just been stopped out - with a loss - on 5 of its 6 top trades for 2016.

Gold Trends 2016

from GoldSeek:

Let’s look into the crystal ball to see what 2016 – The Year of the Monkey – has in store for us when it comes to the gold market.
Gold Price
What will the price of gold be at the end of 2016? Will it dip under USD 1,000/oz?
To answer that question, we first have to analyse what causes the price of gold to move. Supply and demand of physical gold, right?
Physical supply and demand have little to no effect on the price of gold. The price of gold is set on the paper markets and pre-dominantly on the OTC market in London.
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