Monday, February 22, 2016

"There Is Definitely Something Strange Going On" In Sweden

"Some 92% of those unaccompanied migrants were male last year...  there is definitely something strange going on. More than half of the world’s refugees are women. In World War II, when Sweden took refugees from Finland, they were children and 90% were below the age of 10. But now almost all of them are late teenagers – supposedly; we know many are older for a fact... If you have an open door policy and you are incentivizing Afghans to take advantage of the system, can you really blame them?"

Safes Sell Out In Japan, 1,000 Franc Note Demand Soars As NIRP Triggers Cash Hoarding

"This suggests a vague sense of unease among the public"...

A Panicked China Orders Media To Stick To "Positive Reporting" Or Risk "The Stability Of The Country"


Are Central Banks Setting Each Other Up?

There are times you try to connect the dots. There are others where those connections warrant adorning your trusted tin-foiled cap of choice; for you just can’t get there unless you do. This I believe is one of those times. And if correct? What at first might appear apocryphal, may in fact, be down right apocalyptic. And besides, what good is a tin-foil capped conspiracy theory anyhow if it doesn’t have the potential for doom, correct?  The implications for everything we now take for granted such as: money, enterprise, global commerce, and a whole lot more may be far closer to a “Minsky moment” than any of us dared to imagine.

Valeant 'Dead-Cat-Bounce' Dies On Double-Downgrade, Chanos Concerns

Just when you thought it was saffe to pile back into the hedge fund hotel that is Valeant Pharma, the stock prices collapses 18% in 2 days back to 3-month lows. Following a Wells Fargo downgrade on Friday to underperform (due to concerns over the firm's ability to pay back its debt), Deutsche Bank piled on implicitly today with a downgrade for Express Scripts in light of Anthem's over-paying arguments which Jim Chanos claims will weigh on the entire PBM space.

Has The German Manufacturing Juggernaut "Lost Its Mojo?"

Earlier today, we highlighted the noticeable weakness in European PMIs which largely missed expectations on - what else? - sluggish global demand and generally anemic economic growth. Specifically, Germany’s PMI fell for the second month in a row in February, declining to 53.8 from 54.5 the previous month. Worryingly, the manufacturing PMI slumped to 50.2, missing estimates by a wide margin and hitting its lowest level in 15 months. In the wake of Monday’s data, Goldman is out asking if perhaps German manufacturing “has lost its mojo.”

The Cost Of Democratic Socialism (In 1 Stunning Chart)

With a growing number of Americans appearing willing to jump on the socialism-by-any-other-name bandwagon, JPMorgan CIO Michael Cembalest digs into the details of Bernie Sanders' tax proposals. As the following chart sums up so extremely, his plan would certainly represent a unique and unprecedented event in the history of US taxation, if it were enacted.

Why Bonds Aren't Buying This Bounce, And Why Guggenheim Expects The 10-Year Yield To Drop Below 1%

"Essentially, the rates market is stuck between pricing in more Fed easing or more China worries."

Caption Contest: Virtual Insanity

Behold: the people who have given up on dating altogether...

The Mood In Silicon Valley Is Like The "Moment After The Titanic Hit An Iceberg"

A year ago, startups with nascent business models were scoring billion-dollar valuations as investors raced each other to write checks. Today, venture capital is drying up for less successful startups.  Rory O’Driscoll, a partner with venture firm Scale Venture Partners, likens the mood today to the moment after the Titanic hit an iceberg. “No one wanted to jump into the lifeboats right away.”

Citi Asks "When Does A Recession Become A Depression?"

“When it rains, it pours.” That is most assuredly one of the most heavily used cliches in the history of the English language but a failure to understand it apparently causes Citi’s economics team to get it wrong when it comes to forecasting the depth and trajectory of EM recessions.

Steen Jakobsen Explains What Brexit Really Means: "No Good Outcomes To This"

"If Britain does vote No the case for a European Union will collapse – the move away from common law and equal treatment has been for everyone to see."

"We've Reached The Limit": Denmark Central Bank Chief Says Monetary Policy Is Exhausted

Have we reached the Keynesian end game? One central banker thinks so. "We have reached a point where monetary policy no longer has a big overall impact,. [It's] overstreched [and] there’s a limit to what more one can do’."

PMI Plunges - The Last Time US Manufacturing Was This Weak, Bernanke Hinted At QE3

On the heels of weakness in the rest of the world's PMIs, US Manufacturing just printed 51.0 (missing expectations of 52.4) and tumbling to its lowest since October 2012... followed rapidly by Bernanke hinting at QE3. While Markit does 'blame the extreme weather', it notes however that "every indicator from the flash PMI survey, from output, order books and exports to employment, inventories and prices, is flashing a warning light about the health of the manufacturing economy."

The System Has Failed

No wonder we're devolving into a society of a few privileged haves and a vast populace of marginalized have-nots: the system has failed, but we can't even talk about it.

WTI Surges Above $33 Despite IEA 'Glutter'-For-Longer Warnings

WTI crude prices are up almost 6% this morning with April (the new front-month) trading above $33.50 - testing post-DOE plunge stops. The irony of the ramp is that it comes amid terrible global PMIs (demand), a report from IEA of oil staying in glut for longer than expected (supply), and warnings from Abu Dhabi's biggest bank that $20 oil is possible. Oh well, we are sure the algos know what they are doing... despite veterans of the 1980s oil glut warning it could take 7 to 10 years to emerge from the current slump.

Silicon Valley's Business Model In Jeopardy As Wireless Carriers Start Blocking Online Ads

We don’t believe customers should have to pay for data usage driven by mobile ads,” Tom Malleschitz, chief marketing officer of Three UK, said in a statement. “Irrelevant and excessive mobile ads annoy customers and affect their overall network experience.”

The Simple Reason Why Stocks Are Soaring: Gartman "A Bit Net Shorter", Says "Market Is In Very, Very Bad Trouble"

If volume us supposed to follow the trend then the stock market is in very, very bad trouble indeed, for the volume is strong as the market weakens and its weak as the market weakens and its strong as the market rises.... we cut back on the long position we are holding in a small coal company headquartered in Illinois but otherwise we did nothing, leaving us a bit net shorter of the market


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