Sunday, June 5, 2011

What will Americans do for a substitute currency once the U.S. dollar has “greater value” as toilet paper than as money? The answer is “no one knows.”

By now, most informed readers have at least a general understanding of the concept of “hyperinflation”. It is the exponential increase in the prices of goods, directly caused by the collapse of the currency in which those prices are denominated. Thus, when the United Nations issued a warning last week of a possible “crisis of confidence” and/or “collapse” of the U.S. dollar, this was also a direct warning of the imminent risk of hyperinflation in the U.S. economy.

Greeks Grab Their Money from the Banks – Time is Running Out

Greek Bailout #2 Is Dead On Arrival: A Few Good Hedge Funds May Have Called The ECB's Bluff, And Hold The Future Of The EUR Hostage

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/05/2011 23:22 -0400

Even as the general market, dumb as a doorknob, had been following every headline out of Europe, soaking up the BS that Greece may after all end up being bailed out in some miraculous way, there were those who wondered about the legal basis of the Greek bailout #2, also known as the "Vienna initiative." The problem with the second "Deux Ex Machina" bailout is that there is absolutely nothing Deus about it, no Ex, and most certainly no Machina. In fact, as it now clearly appears, the whole rescue package is flimsier than a house of cards and a quick read through the indenture makes it all too clear. The key phrase (or two) in the proposed package: "Voluntary" and "Collective Action Clauses"... Well as the following excerpt from Citi explains, both of these critical (as in binary: without them, Greece is dunzo) assumptions are unworkable, and explains why every single Greek bond in recent weeks has been purchased by hedge funds who have remembered that the economics of "nuisance value" when the upside of bluffing the EUR printer is virtually unlimited. Which means that not only is Bailout #2 in jeopardy of not passing the Greek parliament, but that we may suddenly find ourselves in the biggest "activist" investor drama, in which voluntary restructuring "hold out" hedge funds will settle for Cheapest to Delivery or else demand a trillion pounds of flesh from the ECB in order to keep the eurozone afloat. In other words, the drama is about to get very, very real. And, most ironically, a tiny David is about to flip the scales on the mammoth Goliath of the ECB and hold the entire European experiment hostage...

Goldman Apologizes For Its Horrendous December "US Economic Renaissance" Call, Begins QE3 Discussion

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/05/2011 22:30 -0400

Back on December 1, 2010 Goldman announced it was "fundamentally" shifting its "bearish" outlook on the economy, when Jan Hatzius said "This outlook represents a fundamental shift in the thinking that has governed our forecast for at least the last five years" we accused the Goldman economics team, which we had previously respected, of "jumping the shark" and in describing the piece of fluff said it was nothing but "Hopium", concluding that "Jan Hatzius used to have credibility." Ten minutes ago, Hatzius just threw in the towel and apologized for this horrendous call. "Six months ago, we adopted the view that the economy was transitioning to a more self-sustaining recovery and predicted sequential real GDP growth of 3½%-4% (annualized) in 2011-2012. There were three reasons for our shift: a) a pickup in “organic” growth—GDP excluding the estimated impact of fiscal policy and inventories—to more than 4% in late 2010; b) visible signs of progress in private sector deleveraging, and c) another round of fiscal and monetary stimulus....It hasn’t happened." Needless to say, this apology has made us regain some confidence in Hatzius. Of course, we fully expect that he and his entire team will relinquish their 2011 bonus (and possibly a 2010 bonus clawback) following this massively wrong call, which only Zero Hedge had the guts to call out. Anyway, we can now move on... to QE3. Just as we predicted in January (but were late by a month, expecting this preliminary discussion would occur in May at the latest), Hatzius has just launched the first shot across Bill Dudley's bow. "So what is the hurdle for QE3?" Hatzius asks... And a very dovish Bill "You can't eat iPads" Dudley will answer very shortly. Next up: QE 3.

Another Chinese Rate Hike As Early As This Week Expected

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/05/2011 23:41 -0400

For anyone who was hoping that China would be the marginal source of liquidity in QE3 absentia (or until it actually does come, which it will), manifested by a halt to monetary tightening and a relapse into that good old methadone state of loose monetary policy, it may be time to pull those SHCOMP limit bids. China Daily just announced tha "the People's Bank of China is likely to increase the interest rates banks must pay on deposits and the amount of money banks are required to hold in reserve to sop up the excess liquidity now found in the economy and slow inflation, said analysts. The changes in monetary policy may happen before the National Bureau of Statistics makes an expected announcement this week saying that the consumer price index (CPI), an indicator of inflation, hit a record high in May, they said."As a reminder, yesterday Goldman predicted a multi-year high inflation of 5.5% in May courtesy of the biggest drought in 50 years and surging food prices: it turns out that the PBoC, far more responsible that our own central planning charlatans, will not stand for that.

Chaos in Yemen Drives Economy to Edge of Ruin.