Monday, June 6, 2011

US Economic "Surprise" Factor Plunges By Most Since 2009




The below chart from SocGen demonstrates why the stock market, unlike bonds, is currently massively overpriced. The current economic surprise factor swing, from an all time record at +100 recently, down to about -100 (the third lowest in the past 5 years, and likely longer), a 200 point swing which only compares to the 2008-2009 Lehman collapse, was accompanied by just a 15% drop in stocks over the past 8 months, indicates two things: either the current "soft patch" is indeed "transitory" as the Fed would like us to believe, or that the market is pricing in QE 3. And while SocGen, which is the source of this chart, believes that the collapse is indeed "transitory" we completely fail to see what the factor will be that will push the global economy higher in Q3 and onward: Japan? Europe? Fiscal generosity in the US? China? No, no, no and no. Sorry, there is no catalyst that will provide an impetus for a hockey stick effect this time around. Except, of course, for more monetary easing, perhaps in Japan, but mostly in the US. Yet for that to happen, as we have been claiming for nearly half a year, stocks will need to plunge to their pre-QE2 levels, or about 900. Alas, the mutual funds which currently hold the lowest amount of cash in history, and are levered more than ever, are simply unable to sell without blowing themselves up. We are confident, more than ever, that an unstoppable desire for extend and pretend is about to hit an immovable force...

 


Fitch Blows At Greek Bailout House Of Cards, Says On Closing Of Distressed Debt Exchange Will Place Sovereign Rating Into Default



As we speculated yesterday...
  • If in Fitch's opinion, an announced exchange offer constitutes a DDE, the sovereign issuer rating will be lowered to 'C', indicating that default is highly likely in the near term
  • Fitch will place the issuer rating of the sovereign into default, specifically 'Restricted Default' (RD) upon closing of a distrssed debt exchange.
  • Fitch says a potential Greek debt exchange if voluntary, could still be considered a default event
  • Fitch says Greek debt exchange would be a default if bondholders terms were worse than original terms
  • Fitch says stressed sovereign debt exchange with worse terms is a technical default even if deemed voluntary
The gist is clear: the great unknown of how the rating agencies will treat even a "voluntary" restructuring is still in the closet.




JS Kim on Max Keiser Discusses Banker Manipulation of Gold & Silver Futures
smartknowledgeu
06/06/2011 - 07:50
Please find below my interview with Max Keiser and our discussion regarding the Greek crisis and continued banker price suppression and manipulation schemes executed against gold and silver to prop up the US dollar and prevent a US dollar collapse. 
 
 
 
 

Greek Household Bank Deposits Drop By $3.5 Billion In April, As The "Central Government" Withdraws Another $4.3 Billlion



While Greece may or may not receive Bailout #2 "any minute now", Greek depositors refuse to wait for the resolution. In April, bank deposits declined for the 4th consecutive month according to the central bank, a 1.2% decline M/M. From Reuters: "Bank of Greece data showed deposits fell to 196.8 billion euros ($288.2 billion) from 199.2 billion in March. A shrinking deposit base has added to the strains of Greek banks, which have become reliant on ECB funding for their liquidity needs as access to wholesale funding remains mostly shut on sovereign debt concerns. Deposits have shrunk by about 13 billion euros since the beginning of the year. In 2010, they contracted by 29.1 billion euros or 12.2 percent." In addition to the Reuters breakdown, a look at the source data indicates that overall deposits held by "Domestic Residents" dropped by €5.4 billion: the culprit was the Central Government which withdrew €3.1 billion in April, bringing the total from €14.3 billion to €11.3 billion. As usual, the best real-time proxy, if not completely accurate, to gauge the flow of capital in/out of Greek banks is to keep an eye out on the EURCHF. Today, it is a little higher. Over the past year, it is, well, not...





Sino-Forest Update: "Office Temporarily Closed"



A harbinger of what the front office doors of various investors in Sino-Forest will soon look like... 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Obama Fed Board Nominee Peter Diamond Discovers His Nobel Prize In Economics Is Worthless, Pulls Nomination In Disgust


In a move that is sure to send the infamous Fed "economist" (Ph.D., never forget) Kartik Athreya over the edge, Obama's nominee for the Fed Board, after unsuccessfully trying to enter the one circle that is just less exclusive than the Goldman partnership ranks for over a year, has decided to pen an Op-Ed in the NYT titled "When a Nobel Prize Isn't Enough", and disgusted with the fact that his utterly worthless Nobel prize in something or another can't even buy him one seat with those who decide the price of money, has pulled his nomination in utter disgust. "Last October, I won the Nobel Prize in economics for my work on unemployment and the labor market. But I am unqualified to serve on the board of the Federal Reserve — at least according to the Republican senators who have blocked my nomination. How can this be? " How indeed: could it be that, gasp, Nobel awards are merely a honorary award in groupthink, presented to anyone who perpetuates the status quo with little regard for actual merit-based contribution (one needs only recall Obama's Peace prize just as the President is contemplating opening up a 4th, or is that 5th, war front?). Most importantly: nobody tell Krugman his one validation of his life's work, has just been downgraded to junk.





Goldman Prepares To Fight Carl Levin Allegations Of Massive Housing Short, Will Release Trove Of "Evidence" It Is Innocent



As Goldman stock probes new lows every day, and in passing news has just announced it would sell its largely irrelevant Litton Loan mortgage servicing unit to Ocwen financial (which was named so after the founders could not come up with a name so they inverted Newco, but that is a story for another day) for $264 million but retain any potential fraud liability, the firm is now expected to release its own trove of documents expected to "defend" the firm from the various allegations presented in the Carl Levin 639 page report. The report  has already served as the basis for a subpoena lobbed at Goldman, and which some predict will have a much lower threshold of proving guilt courtesy of New York's "Martin Act" has pushed the stock to a one year low. It was only inevitable that Goldman would come up with some jiggering of its numbers to prove that it was in fact innocent. We wonder if the report will also provide an explanation for the following words by one Deeb Salem, a Goldman trader in the structure products group: "We began to encourage this squeeze, with plans of getting very short again." Swenson, Salem’s supervisor, sent e-mails in May 2007 urging traders to offer prices that will “cause maximum pain” and “have people totally demoralized.” In interviews with the committee, Salem and Swenson denied attempting a short squeeze, the report said." Regardless, we can't wait to see the latest attempt to obfuscate the public opinion with the mixing of apples and oranges. Alas, Goldman may be surprised to find that the general population is not quite as dumb as it expects this time around, and there will be those who will gladly cut through the fluff of any posted rebuke within minutes.





Muddy Waters' Carson Block Discusses Sino-Forest, Says Will Keep Short In "Ponzi" Until Stock Hits Zero




More color from Muddy Waters' Carson Block on why he believes the now infamous Sino-Forest is a ponzi scheme: "It's a Ponzi scheme in that the company perpetually issues securities in order to fund itself. Even by its own fraudulent numbers, the company does not generate any free cash and has not done so in sixteen years. Were the company be unable to issue additional securities to fund itself, it would collapse. That to me is the definition or epitomizes the definition of a Ponzi. "In this situation, the company appears to be investing for the 23rd century. It's sixteen straight years burning cash, no guidance as to what the rationale is to acquire so many trees so far ahead of customer orders. This is taking a capex fraud--we have found several of these in China--it's taking it to the next level where you're not constrained by the walls of a factory and no one is able to really see the movement of physical goods. It could grow to be infinite provided that the capital markets continue to fund it." 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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