US Economic "Surprise" Factor Plunges By Most Since 2009
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/06/2011 08:57 -0400The below chart from SocGen demonstrates why the stock market, unlike bonds, is currently massively overpriced. The current economic surprise factor swing, from an all time record at +100 recently, down to about -100 (the third lowest in the past 5 years, and likely longer), a 200 point swing which only compares to the 2008-2009 Lehman collapse, was accompanied by just a 15% drop in stocks over the past 8 months, indicates two things: either the current "soft patch" is indeed "transitory" as the Fed would like us to believe, or that the market is pricing in QE 3. And while SocGen, which is the source of this chart, believes that the collapse is indeed "transitory" we completely fail to see what the factor will be that will push the global economy higher in Q3 and onward: Japan? Europe? Fiscal generosity in the US? China? No, no, no and no. Sorry, there is no catalyst that will provide an impetus for a hockey stick effect this time around. Except, of course, for more monetary easing, perhaps in Japan, but mostly in the US. Yet for that to happen, as we have been claiming for nearly half a year, stocks will need to plunge to their pre-QE2 levels, or about 900. Alas, the mutual funds which currently hold the lowest amount of cash in history, and are levered more than ever, are simply unable to sell without blowing themselves up. We are confident, more than ever, that an unstoppable desire for extend and pretend is about to hit an immovable force...
Fitch Blows At Greek Bailout House Of Cards, Says On Closing Of Distressed Debt Exchange Will Place Sovereign Rating Into Default
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/06/2011 10:32 -0400As we speculated yesterday...
JS Kim on Max Keiser Discusses Banker Manipulation of Gold & Silver Futures
- If in Fitch's opinion, an announced exchange offer constitutes a DDE, the sovereign issuer rating will be lowered to 'C', indicating that default is highly likely in the near term
- Fitch will place the issuer rating of the sovereign into default, specifically 'Restricted Default' (RD) upon closing of a distrssed debt exchange.
- Fitch says a potential Greek debt exchange if voluntary, could still be considered a default event
- Fitch says Greek debt exchange would be a default if bondholders terms were worse than original terms
- Fitch says stressed sovereign debt exchange with worse terms is a technical default even if deemed voluntary
JS Kim on Max Keiser Discusses Banker Manipulation of Gold & Silver Futures
smartknowledgeu
06/06/2011 - 07:50
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