With Dexia Done, Here Is Who Is Next: A Visual Euro Bank Liquidity Vs Funding Exposure Matrix

Now that the FT is reporting that as part of the ongoing emergency talks to rescue an expiring Dexia, one of the proposals is a spin off of a Dexia "bad bank" - something which worked for UBS, which is still a partial protectorate of Switzerland, but will most certainly not work for governmentless Belgium, the question is "who is next" Luckily, we have the following handy summary, courtesy of Reuters' Peter Thal Larsen who has pulled a chart from an Espirito Santo report, showing a 2-D matrix of liquidity (i.e. liquid assets as a % of wholesale funding assets), versus reliance on wholesale funding - the one component in European interbank markets which is now completely dead. Needless to say red is bad. And if one thinks that Dexia is about to file, then it may be last rites time for Soc Gen, BNP, Raiffeisen, and DnB Nor.

Gold probing upside resistance

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 10 minutes ago

Gold is garnering strength from overnight news that Greece looks to miss its debt reduction target. This is causing further fears about the well-being of Europe in general and is bringing in selling across the global equity markets. What is noteworthy about gold in today's session is that it is making this move towards overhead chart resistance with the Dollar knocking on the door of the 80 level on the USDX. The European currencies, the Euro, Swiss Franc and British Pound are all under pressure today as are the commodity currencies. The result - gold is moving higher in terms of al... more » 

 

 

 

 

 

The FINal Countdown

In the last hour, financials have accelerated to the downside very rapidly. It seems perhaps that the credit markets were on to something and now equities are realizing that something is definitely worrying market professionals.
MS -5.7% at $12.7 (from highs just above $14 this morning as Cramer recommended), BAC -4.75% at $5.82 (lows since MAR09), GS -3% at $91.7, C -6%, XLF worst performing sector -2.5% (Is Kass still renting?)
 

Bank Of America Stock Back To The "(Not So) Fantastic Fives"

As of milliseconds ago, one share of Bank of America stock is now $5.99, a level it has not seen since the apocalypse back in March 2009, and upon penetrating it, a huge volume surge followed as an avalanche of sell orders were activated. However, we are confident this will be temporary. According to largely amusing rumors, Bank of America will follow through with its expropriation procedure and withdraw $5 from longs' brokerage accounts for each share they hold, effectively doubling the market cap in the process. So you see: there is nothing to worry about. Warren: resume your bath, both
literal and metaphorical.

RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 03/10/11

Submitted by RANSquawk Video on 10/03/2011 - 12:27 ETC RANSquawk

Market Snapshot: Financials Weak As Europe Closes

From significant outperformance early in the European trading day, Financials lost considerable ground as the US opened and bank funding problems were admitted. Obviously, Europe had some catch up to do to the afternoon session in the US Friday, but it went beyond that with Senior Financials closing near the day's wides even as the broader equity market in Europe was only down around 1.3%. The underperformance (against their intrinsic value and peer asset classes) of both Main (the investment grade credit index) and Senior Financials (which are both the lowest cost liquid indices to 'hedge' with in European credit suggest significant macro protection is still being added here. EUR making new multi-month lows below 1.33 as EURJPY tanks and CEEMEA sovereigns widening dramatically also does not help restore confidence as Gold gets a safety bid and USD strengthens.

Guest Post: The Technical Evidence For A Bear Market Decline

Here's what markets do when they break critical support: they re-test lows. That sets up an eventual target for this decline of 670, which would be a re-test of the March 2009 lows. Bulls have to answer this question: once the 200-week MA is broken, why shouldn't this market re-test the recent low? If it's "different this time," what makes it different from every other era and market? It might be a good time to recall that index funds are only "safe" in the sense that they aggregate the risk of all stocks in the index. A market that declines 40% will take index funds down 40%. There is nothing "safe" about long-equity funds that track a market heading down. Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow, much less 30 days from now or three months from now, but as of this snapshot of the market, the evidence of a Bear market decline is rather substantial, and the technical evidence of a Bull market is rather thin. As the saying goes, keep it simple.

Bank Of America Locks Out Its Online Clients For Second Day In A Row

Euro Plunges After Draghi Says Eurobanks Have Liquidity Crisis, Finland And Spain FinMins Say No Need For EFSF Expansion

The EURUSD as expected, is now in free fall mode, following a plethora of statement out of place, after coming ECB head Draghi says the bank in Europe have funding problems (aka a liquidity crisis), the Finland FinMin has said he does not want an expansion of the EFSF nor does he expect a solution on the collateral "row", saying a Deal on EFSF Collateral is uncertain, and lastly, Spain's Salgado has said there is no need of "quantitative amplification" of the EFSF. In other words, with the EFSF leverage meeting imminent, it appears that pretty much nobody aside from France, and some Econ PhDs, are banging the table on using a 10x expansion, knowing all too well that just as Nomura explained last night, such a move is equivalent to money printing and invites nothing short of hyperinflation if and when it all goes wrong.

Once Again The Battle For SPX 1120 Is Raging

The bulls are all pointing out that we are near the bottom of the trading range, that 1,120 has held multiple times and the economic data isn't so horrible.  The bears on the other hand can point to a myriad of problems that have the combination of not having been resolved, but too many investors hoping they will be.  The market has priced in too rosy of a situation.  The bears also point out that the data is marginally better, but still pretty awful.  Finally, from a technical standpoint, if 1,120 does get broken, 1080 or so seems to be the next stop. We were sitting here last week, and got saved by a few positive tape-bombs.  Will we see that again?  I don't think so.

September Manufacturing ISM Beats Expectations, Rises Modestly

Just like Friday's Chicago PMI, the Manufacturing ISM has now completely decoupled from not only the developing world, but from the rest of America, as somehow US manufacturing in September came in better than expected, printing at 51.6, on expectations of a modest decline from 50.6 in August to 50.5. Commentary from the ISM's Bradley Holcomb: "The PMI registered 51.6 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from August, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 26th consecutive month, at a slightly higher rate. The Production Index registered 51.2 percent, indicating a return to growth after contracting in August for the first time since May of 2009. The New Orders Index remained unchanged from August at 49.6 percent, indicating contraction for the third consecutive month. The Backlog of Orders Index decreased 4.5 percentage points to 41.5 percent, contracting for the fourth consecutive month and reaching its lowest level since April 2009, when it registered 40.5 percent. Comments from respondents generally reflect concern over the sluggish economy, political and policy uncertainty in Washington, and forecasts of ongoing high unemployment that will continue to put pressure on demand for manufactured products." And reading within the index, the data was not all good, with the all important New Orders unchanged, while an increase in Price Paid showed a modest increase in inflation, and hence deterioration in margins. Compounding the picture, Backlog of orders slumped, while Customer inventories increased. Altogether a non-impressive number, although at least it did not post the first contraction in 26 months, as Goldman had expected.

MS CDS Soars As Cramer Says "Morgan Stanley Is Fine"

Minutes ago Jim Cramer, reverting to his traditional inverse bank psychic, whose track record needs just one word of reminder, and that is Bear Stearns, told everyone that Morgan Stanley is fine. It may well be. However, we doubt it, as does the market, which just sent out the firm's CDS up another 32bps to 528bps, the widest since 10/13/08 having only traded wider than this level from 9/16/08 to 10/13/08. Critically for those looking at CDS not being as bad as during the peak of the crisis and gaining comfort from that - CDS did not trade gently to those extremes - it gapped unmercifully wider with incredible day to day volatility. Furthermore, for those talking about how illiquid CDS are and easily manipulated, we remind them that it is bonds that cracked first (a much more broadly owned and traded set of instruments) and only very recently has CDS started to catch up to the wide/risky levels at which bonds trade.

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