Whatever the European experiment once was, it has morphed almost beyond recognition. The policy responses have made the problem worse, not better, and it is becoming more complex. The contagion is spreading because every policy is linking the countries more closely, but not in a controlled and thoughtful way but in a haphazard poorly thought out way. Making things more complex primarily in reaction to previous moves with limited understanding of what you are getting into is a recipe for disaster, and Europe has followed this policy for years now, it is a shame they don't see it before it is too late to fix.
- Trading volume remains thin as Veterans Day in the US and Armistice Day in Europe is being observed
- The new Greek government, led by ex-ECB vice president Papademos, is expected to be sworn in at 1400GMT today
- The Italian Senate approves budget measures. According to the PM’s office, Italy’s cabinet will meet on Saturday evening at around 1700GMT, after the lower house votes on a financial stability law
- Market talk that the ECB is buying the Italian and Spanish government debt
- Merkel's CDU party's general secretary said that the party is poised to back a motion at its annual party congress on November 13th-15th to offer states a "voluntary" means of leaving the Eurozone
the Chamber of Deputies that will lead to Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s resignation. The market reaction as judged by the EURUSD has been oddly muted with just 15 pips the immediate move higher, implying this has been largely priced in. The question, is noted previously, is whether Mario Monti will be able to form a unity government or if the country will proceed with drawn out elections in which Silvio himself will participate as well.
Spreads across Europe are tighter today, and stocks higher, as investors hope that a power shuffle at the top in Greece and Italy, where the placement of two Fed and ECB puppet rulers, would change decades of flawed fiscal planning and destructive habits. Of note, the catalysts inducing a substantial rise in French, Italian, Belgian and Irish bonds, is the expectation of a new Greek government as well as the Italian Senate voting on approving the 2012 budget and passing austerity measures (which it has already done before, and nothing happened) such as increasing the retirement age by 2 years in 15 years. The vote itself is a symbolic ouster to Berlusconi who has previously said he would retire the second the budget is passed. The question remains what happens after Berlusconi falls: elections or a new technocratic consensus government, headed by Mario Monti, and whether the ECB will support whatever course Italy takes. So needless to say prepare for vicious 50-100 pip moves in the EURUSD, and with every pip amounting to 1-3 DJIA point, the volatility in the market today will be significant. Buckle in. In other news, the one fundamental question that needs some answer before all this is over, namely how Italy will fund €300 billion in debt maturities and interest payments over the next year, with the EFSF now a formal dud, remains unanswered, and will, as there is no answer.
With Italian bonds giddy at the prospect of changing one worthless political muppet with another, if only for a few hours, and especially with the stern and long overdue assistance of the ECB (we will find out how many bonds Mario Draghi bought this week to preserve the price stabeeleetee next Monday - we expect the SMP cumulative total to pass €200 billion, a number which will delight Germany), it is becoming increasingly clear that France needs to be urgently added to the list of countries eligible for ECB secondary market "sponsorship", because while Italy yields are gapping in, Franch Bund spreads have since blown out back to record levels, following some modest tightening earlier in the morning. And unlike yesterday, this time there are no downgrade rumors to be blamed. At least not yet.
Submitted by RANSquawk Video on 11/11/2011 - 06:58 Morning Briefing RANSquawk
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