Thursday, November 10, 2011

Italian Banks Are 'Free'-To-Trade As Short-Sale-Ban Is Not Extended

Unlike their French counterparts, it appears the hapless (or sensible) Italian demagogues have decided not to extend the short-sale ban that was enacted three months ago. With the US Treasury market closed and volumes likely thin elsewhere, we wonder what outlet the flight-to-safety flow will take as Italian bank equity reality is unleashed. In general the CDS market took the systemic brunt of the hedging and protection-seeking since the 8/11 ban and it seems likely that Intesa Sanpaolo and Mediobanca have the most to fall to catch up with peers in equity while UniCredit seems to have the most to lose in equity to catch up to CDS performance.

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