Sunday, November 13, 2011

Eurozone collapse 'will send continent into depression' 


Death of the Euro


Big Banks Plead With Customers Not to Move Their Money


Too Big to Fail, Too Big to Save: The economic collapse of Italy will destroy the euro. (Nouriel Roubini) 


China Misses 3 Trillion Yuan But You Should Trust Inflation and GDP Data

In yet another accounting error (or not), a sovereign nation accidentally missed a large amount of debt that it owed. Bloomberg (via The Economic Observer) is citing data from Beijing Fost Economic Consulting that ~3tn yuan ($473bn) of debt in township governments was not included in China's National Audit Office reports. This is not a drop in the ocean as it raises the local government debt load by around 30% and represents debt in vehicle financings and bank loans. Of course, we should remain calm and walk (not run) to the exits as GDP, inflation, and whichever macro data point you choose that has subliminally met expectations recently is completely accurate - have no fear.

Advance Look At This Week's Key Event: Is Europe's Latest Velvet Revolution Credible?

Looking ahead in the upcoming week, markets will likely scrutinise the first steps of the new Greek and Italian governments. The appointment of key cabinet positions will be of relevance to establish credibility. However, it may be a bit too early for the first concrete policy steps. Beyond politics, three themes dominate the data schedule. First, there is a raft of Q3 GDP releases in Europe (Germany, France, Eurozone, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic). The numbers will likely still be mixed with more uniform weakness expected in the Q4 numbers. Second, we will see the beginning of the monthly survey season with the US Empire and Philly Fed releases. Finally, there is a raft of Fed speakers scheduled to talk about the economy and Fed policy. Less thematic but also relevant are retail sales numbers in the UK and the US. Of course, we will have a look at the monthly TIC numbers to gauge the capital flow pressures for the Dollar.

Chinese ratings agency threatens US with new debt downgrade

Rate on 30-year Mortgages Below Four Percent for Second Time

In The News Today

My Dear Friends,

Alf Fields’ outlook on gold is coming Tuesday morning.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Gold is headed to the $2000s and that is for starters.

Gold traders most bullish since 2004 on debt crisis Bloomberg Nov 12, 2011, 10.12am IST
LONDON: Gold traders and analysts are the most bullish in at least seven years as investors accumulate metal at the fastest pace since August to protect their wealth from a widening European debt crisis. Twenty-one of 22 surveyed by Bloomberg expect bullion to rise on the Comex in New York next week, the third consecutive increase and the highest proportion in data going back to April 2004.
Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by gold rose 27.5 tonne this week, within 1% of the record set almost three months ago, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Gold exceeded $1,800 an ounce for the first time in seven weeks on November 8 and hedge funds are holding their biggest bet on higher prices since mid-September , Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The metal is rebounding after tumbling as much as 20% in three weeks in September. Almost $9 trillion was wiped off the value of global equities since May and yields on Italian and Greek bonds rose to euro-era records this week. "Throughout history gold has protected people from the sort of turmoil that we’re seeing," said Mark O’Byrne , the Dublin-based executive director of GoldCore, a brokerage that sells everything from quarter-ounce British Sovereigns to 400-ounce bars.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is better known as QE. There is no other tool in the bag when there is a run on banks. This is why gold is going now into the $2000s.

Eurozone bail-out fund has to resort to buying its own debt
Europe’s €1 trillion (£854bn) rescue fund has been forced to buy its own debt as outside investors become increasingly concerned about the worsening eurozone sovereign debt crisis. By Harry Wilson and Kamal Ahmed
9:30PM GMT 12 Nov 2011129 Comments

The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) last week announced it had successfully sold a €3bn 10-year bond in support of Ireland.
However, The Sunday Telegraph can reveal that target was only met after the EFSF resorted to buying up several hundred million euros worth of the bonds.
Sources said the EFSF had spent more than € 100m buying up its own bonds to help it achieve its funding target after the banks leading the deal were only able to find about €2.7bn of outside demand for the debt.
The revelation will be seen as a major failure and a worrying sign of future buyers strike after EFSF officials and their bankers had spent recent weeks travelling the world attempting to persuade key investors, including China’s national wealth fund and Japanese government funds, to buy its bonds.
Chinese and Japanese money was crucial to last year’s first bond sales by the EFSF, but they have since been dismayed by the eurozone’s failure to resolve the worsening debt crisis and alarmed at how fund has morphed from being a rescue facility for European banks into a potentially €1 trillion leveraged first-loss insurer for eurozone governments.

Oil And Gold Excited As USD Leaks Lower

UPDATE: TSYs just opened (after being closed Friday) with a 4-7bps bear steepener and 2s10s30s rising 8bps. ES is pretty much in line with CONTEXT at 1269 now everything is open.
As EURUSD toys with 1.38 and AUD outperforms, the USD is leaking lower (-0.2%) from Friday (after closing the week almost perfectly unchanged Friday-to-Friday). Gold and Oil appear to be basking in the glow of increased macro and geopolitical tensions as $1795 and $99.50 (respectively) have already been broken this evening. It appears Silver and Gold are tracking each other as Oil follows the USD and Copper is the major outperformer so far (in early trading).

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