Having gorged on the fat pipe of cheap credit for much of the previous few decades, the last few years have rapidly and aggressively slapped the US (and indeed much of the world) from its stupor. All that growth, was it real? The speed of economic leveraging began to gain momentum in the early 1970s and accelerated sharply in the 1980s as the cost of debt began its decades-long decline. That leverage enabled consumption and capex to rise quicker and with less capital but obviously with more risk. With the current balance-sheet recession stymieing monetary policy and fiscal policy hardly supportive, it seems the private deleveraging hole will be difficult to fill with public borrowing excess. It seems that credit markets (the ubiquitous source of all that leverage) have again and again sung from a different song-sheet with regard to the way we escape from the inevitable deleveraging we are currently undertaking. Matt King, of Citigroup, provides a thought-provoking (and all-encompassing) slide-deck on the coming decade of deleveraging and how now is time for payback discussing the bubble in credit, ways of deleveraging, and investment implications.
life expectancy in the US peaking at 78.1, it means that the typical American will have to work for an additional 2 years after death to pay for not only not having any retirement savings (thank you Bernanke ZIRP and VIX>30 stock market), but to make sure Europeans have theirs. You think we jest?
Unlike yesterday's close, which was led by stocks and not sustained by broad risk assets, today's notable dive in ES was fully backed and supported by credit, commodity, FX carry, rates, and spreads. Volumes dried up as the afternoon progressed as we suspect machines were turned off on the vol regime shifts and real 'value-investing' money was patently absent - now Bill Miller has left the building. HYG underperformed and was first to move as we sold off just after lunch (on what we suspect was driven by the transparency of the USD funding difficulties we discussed). Liquidations, thanks to CME margin moves, did not help and dragged commodities hugely lower - even as the dollar (and EUR) ended almost unchanged from yesterday's afternoon close. The clarion call for the ECB's bazooka will be loud this evening.
Submitted by RANSquawk Video on 11/17/2011 - 16:38 ETC RANSquawk
The New York Fed has released its updated FX swap line data: while the USD line with the BOJ has been cut from $102 million to just $1 million, what is more disturbing is that the swap lines with the ECB increased by $390 million to $2.248 billion. This amount is split between $500 million in a 7 day line at 1.08% and the balance locked up in a 84 day swap at 1.09%, which is where the addition was found. And now we start getting the denials from European banks as to who it may have been to need rescue funding from the Fed via the ECB, and was unable to access USD Libor at a far lower rate.
As every central banker, politician (except Chuck Schumer), and bank CEO looks towards Chinese central planners as their apparent bottomless pit of dumb money, it seems that perhaps the cupboards are bare. Reuters, via The China Post, highlights in a recent article that while there are indeed reserves, they are gainfully employed and the unwinding of those positions (in size enough to matter) to provide the cash that is so desperately needed to keep the ponzi going, will itself cause a vicious circle of negative sentiment. In fact, analysts reckon China's armory has only about US$100 billion to spare.
Nigel Farage needs no introduction: the famous Euroskeptic is one of very few men who has had the temerity to question, often in an abnormally high decibel fashion, the stupidity of the Eurozone leaders from day one. Now that he has been proven correct, he has every right to gloat, which he does to everyone's delightful amusement in the European parliament. The look on the unelected von Rompuy's face, especially as he watches his decade-long bureaucratic nirvana crash and burn every single day, is quite priceless.
Barely has America had the pleasure of enjoying its new found status as a 15-handle country (as in $15 trillion, or $15,033,607,255,920 to be specific) that the US Treasury went ahead and announced its latest forward issuance calendar of $99 billion in bonds and $11 billion in TIPS. Sure enough, by the end of next week, total US debt will be greater by $62 billion including a Bills auction, bringing the revised total to just under $15.1 trillion, and less than a $100 billion from the re-re-revised debt ceiling, even as the Supercommittee is deadlocked beyond fixing. Also, this means that even assuming the Q3 GDP is not revised lower, total debt-to-GDP will almost certainly surpass 100% by the end of the calendar year since December will have at least another $100 billion in issuance net of redemptions.