Tuesday, January 31, 2012

2012: The Year Of Hyperactive Central Banks

Back in January 2010, when in complete disgust of the farce that the market has become, and where fundamentals were completely trumped by central bank intervention, we said, that "Zero Hedge long ago gave up discussing corporate fundamentals due to our long-held tenet that currently the only relevant pieces of financial information are contained in the Fed's H.4.1, H.3 statements." This capitulation in light of the advent of the Central Planner of Last Resort juggernaut was predicated by our belief that ever since 2008, the only thing that would keep the world from keeling over and succumbing to the $20+ trillion in excess debt (excess to a global debt/GDP ratio of 180%, not like even that is sustainable!) would be relentless central bank dilution of monetary intermediaries, read, legacy currencies, all to the benefit of hard currencies such as gold. Needless to say gold back then was just over $1000. Slowly but surely, following several additional central bank intervention attempts, the world is once again starting to realize that everything else is noise, and the only thing that matters is what the Fed, the ECB, the BOE, the SNB, the PBOC and the BOJ will do. Which brings us to today's George Glynos, head of research at Tradition, who basically comes to the same conclusion that we reached 2 years ago, and which the market is slowly understand is the only way out today (not the relentless bid under financial names). The note's title? "If 2011 was the year of the eurozone crisis, 2012 will be the year of the central banks." George is spot on. And it is this why we are virtually certain that by the end of the year, gold will once again be if not the best performing assets, then certainly well north of $2000 as the 2009-2011 playbook is refreshed. Cutting to the chase, here are Glynos' conclusions.





Why An Outsized LTRO Will Actually Be Bad For European Banks

The post-hoc (correlation implies causation) reasons for why the initial LTRO spurred bond buying are many-fold but as Nomura points out in a recent note (confirming our thoughts from last week) investors (especially bank stock and bondholders) should be very nervous at the size of the next LTRO. Whether it was anticipation of carry trades becoming self-reinforcing, bank liquidity shock buffering, or pre-funding private debt market needs, financials and sovereigns have rallied handsomely, squeezing new liquidity realities into a still-insolvent (and no-growth / austerity-driven) region. Concerns about the durability of the rally are already appearing as Greek PSI shocks, Portugal contagion, mark-to-market risks impacting repo and margin call event risk, increased dispersion among European (core and peripheral) curves, and the dramatic rise in ECB Deposits (or negative carry and entirely unproductive liquidity use) show all is not Utopian. However, the largest concern, specifically for bondholders of the now sacrosanct European financials, is if LTRO 2.0 sees heavy demand (EUR200-300bn expected, EUR500bn would be an approximate trigger for 'outsize' concerns) since, as we pointed out previously, this ECB-provided liquidity is effectively senior to all other unsecured claims on the banks' balance sheets and so implicitly subordinates all existing unsecured senior and subordinated debt holders dramatically (and could potentially reduce any future willingness of private investors to take up demand from capital markets issuance - another unintended consequence). We have long suggested that with the stigma gone and markets remaining mostly closed, banks will see this as their all-in moment and grab any and every ounce of LTRO they can muster (which again will implicitly reduce all the collateral that was supporting the rest of their balance sheets even more). Perhaps the hope of ECB implicit QE in the trillions is not the medicine that so many money-printing-addicts will crave and a well-placed hedge (Senior-Sub decompression or 3s5s10s butterfly on financials) or simple underweight to the equity most exposed to the capital structure (and collateral constrained) impact of LTRO will prove fruitful.









20 Signs That Europe Is Plunging Into A Full-Blown Economic Depression
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/20-signs-that-europe-is-plunging-in...



MF Global Client Money Feared Gone
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/mf_global_client_money_feared_gone_cH69...



India Abandons US Dollar to Purchase Iranian Oil
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6u7KnXyrKmQ


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/03/iranian-opec-president-revolution...


http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.5862125f766c04eb2281885744c3a99d....



How to Prepare For the Coming Global "Write Off" on Social Programs and Government Outlays
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/how-prepare-coming-global-write-social-p...



Return of $500/$1,000/$5,000 Bills?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80iH0zczjcw



Gold Ready to Smash Through $2,000, Exploding Higher
http://kingworldnews.com



Illinois "Assault Weapons Ban" is Back & the Fight Is On
http://www.ammoland.com/2012/01/30/illinois-assault-weapons-ban-is-back/




The Danger of Having a Weak Economy with a Strong Stock Market

by Sam Chee Kong, MarketOracle.co.uk:
For the past two to three decades, there has been a radical structural transformation of the American economy from being a production economy to a service economy with consumer driving 60% of its GDP. Due to the so called Globalization, much of America’s manufacturing facilities have been transferred overseas and hence with its jobs as well. Since the beginning of the 21st century America has lost more than 50,000 manufacturing facilities either due to uncompetitive closure or being shifted overseas. As a result more than 5 million jobs have been lost along the way.
This has also resulted in a loss of more than 10% of the middle class jobs where during the early 2000s there are more than 72 million middle class jobs. Now there are less than 65 million middle class jobs.
Read More @ MarketOracle.co.uk




The 5 Major US Banks Control 97% of All Credit Derivative Swaps

Today’s daily is EXTRA important. Please take the time to read it all!!!
As I write this, at 3:30 a.m., gold and silver are moving up fast and have recaptured all of yesterday’s losses.
Jim Sinclair issued the following announcement early last night:

January 30, 2012, at 7:37 pm
Dear Friends,
I was interviewed today concerning the most powerful body in the financial world that now holds in its hands the near future of all markets, from currencies to commodities, based on a single edict to be given.

Read More @ MilesFranklin.com




Scientists Created Bird Flu Superbug That Could Set Off Next Global Pandemic

by Jonathan Benson, NaturalNews.com:
(NaturalNews) During roughly the same time period that health experts worldwide have been warning that the infamous H5N1 avian flu virus could soon morph into a highly-transmissible, exceedingly-deadly “super strain” capable of killing millions, scientists from around the world have been exposed deliberately developing such a strain in laboratories.

Last month, we reported about research work conducted by Ron Fouchier from Erasmus Medical College in the Netherlands that had successfully created a super-deadly strain of H5N1. Fouchier and his colleagues had originally planned to publish their controversial findings in medical journals until the scientific community and many members of the public decried the research, calling for an immediate end to it (http://www.naturalnews.com/034228_bioterrorism_flu_strain.html).

Not only is the publishing of critical data about a deadly new strain of H5N1 a massive public health risk, but the research itself is a huge risk as well, as the strain could end up escaping from labs and quickly spreading around the world. Bio-terrorists could also gain hold of the strain — or produce a similar one themselves — to be used for starting the next global pandemic (http://www.naturalnews.com/033480_bird_flu_scare_tactics.html).
Read More @ NaturalNews.com




Worship of the Mob

by Ben O’Neill, Mises.org:

Several months ago, I was visiting some friends in Sydney and was invited to the house of a friend-of-a-friend for some late night drinks and a chat. My host and his friends were left-wing bohemian types and had been informed by my friend that I am a “free-market anarchist,” or something like that. They found this notion intriguing, and so they quizzed me on what that means, and this naturally led into a discussion of the merits of a free market versus a democracy.
The discussion was a cordial one, and went as most of these discussions do when one is chatting with people who have never previously been exposed to consistent libertarian philosophy. My host and his friends raised most of the standard objections to the free market and to the idea of a stateless private-law society, and I explained why I regard each of those objections as erroneous.[1] Though the attending group appeared to find my arguments on these individual points thought provoking, they remained unconvinced. The main sticking point to the discussion was a pervasive concern that the free market does not allow for democratic state action — that “the people” should have the right to collectively determine “the rules of the game” by voting their preferred politicians into power, and that their determinations should legitimately bind the members of the society they are in.
Read More @ Mises.org





Reject the Ruling Psychopathology

Tom Ridge is a Republican and a notable U.S. political figure.
Tom Ridge wants the U.S. to overturn or subvert the Iranian regime from within. See his op-ed here. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors are once again inspecting Iran in a 3-day visit right now, but Ridge wants the U.S. to act “unilaterally and decisively.” He wants the U.S. openly to support (and fund? and train? and make promises to?) anti-regime groups. He wants the U.S. to declare that it’s out for “regime change” in Iran.
He means it when he uses the word “unilateral”, for he speaks of the “impotence” of the U.N. resolutions and the West’s sanctions.
Is subversion an act of war? There is no book of international law that answers this question. Some people say yes, some say no. It clearly depends on the nature of the subversive acts, which can range from protests to assassinations and sabotage. But no matter how it is classified, U.S. support of subversion and open declaration of a goal of regime change is or would be hostile. It is open interference and intervention into Iran’s political processes by the U.S. government. How would the U.S. react if Iran supported groups inside America who wanted drastic regime change here?
Read More @ LewRockwell.com



Venezuela Completes Repatriation Of 160 Tons Of Gold, Gold At 2012 Highs

Slowly but surely, ever more physical gold is being removed from circulation in conventional channels. Yesterday, it was Sprott who a week after doing a follow on offering in his PSLV ETF (i.e., adding more physical), reported that he was going to buy an as of yet undisclosed amount of gold for PHYS. This came just as Venezuela completed the rapatriation of its gold from European vaults, which means that it is substantially ahead of all of its other international peers who confidently continue to hold their gold stashed away in vaults situated primarily in London and NY. From Bloomberg: “Venezuela today received the last shipment of gold bars in an operation that repatriated 160 tons of the South American country’s reserves of the metal held abroad, said Nelson Merentes, president of the country’s central bank. Fourteen tons of gold arrived at the Caracas airport today on a flight from Europe, Merentes said. The gold bars were transported in a caravan, broadcast on state television, to vaults at the central bank where street banners proclaimed “Mission Complete.”” So now that the defections in the golden game theory equilibrium have commenced, the question is: who is next?
Read More @ ZeroHedge.com




Silver Surges 21% in January – Silver Demand Is “Diminishing A Supply Surplus”

from GoldCore:
Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,738.00, GBP 1,102.23, and EUR 1,317.27 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,720.50, GBP 1,097.40, and EUR 1,310.06 per ounce.
Gold edged higher in Asian and again in European trading today. Gold has broken through all major moving averages and Fibonacci levels this week due to a weakening dollar and geopolitical concerns regarding Iran and the European solvency crisis.
Euro gold appears to be breaking above resistance which should lead to new record highs above €1,359/oz.
Gold at €1,315/oz is now just 3% below the record high from September 2011. The correction and consolidation of recent months was necessary and healthy, and the intractable Eurozone debt crisis should result in further falls in the euro and €1,400/oz gold is likely.
Read More @ GoldCore.com




Commodities and the European Debt Crisis, How Does it Work?

from WealthCycles:
While it may have very little on effect on the actual goings-on of the world, we are always interested in what the prognosticators might say about debt crises and their effects on commodity prices. On one hand, a faltering euro leaves only the dollar as a “safe” currency—meaning the debt crisis in Europe is good for the dollar and bad for commodity prices. But any deep analysis will show the entire system build on faith in fiat is deeply flawed—and destined to collapse.
A big component that analysts have failed to recognize is that the ecosystem of largely European banks that once lent essential short-term loans to commodity projects has failed. In today’s Financial Times Commodities Note, commodities analyst Javier Blas says this:
Read More @ WealthCycles.com




Baltic Dry Index Signals Renewed Market Collapse

There is No Economic Recovery
by Brandon Smith, Alt-Market.com:
Much has been said about the Baltic Dry Index over the course of the last four years, especially in light of the credit crisis and the effects it has had on the frequency of global shipping. Importing and exporting has never been quite the same since 2008, and this change is made most obvious through one of the few statistical measures left in the world that is not subject to direct manipulation by international corporate interests; the BDI. Today, the BDI is on the verge of making headlines once again, being that is plummeting like a wingless 747 into the swampy mire of what I believe will soon be historical lows.
The problem with the BDI is that it is little understood and often dismissed by less thoughtful economic analysts as a “volatile index” that is too “sensitive” to be used as a realistic indicator of future trends. What these analysts consistently seem to ignore is that regardless of their narrow opinion, the BDI has been proven to lead economic derision in the market movements of the past. That is to say, the BDI has been volatile exactly BECAUSE markets have been volatile and unstable, and is a far more accurate thermometer than those that most mainstream economists currently rely on. If only they would look back at the numbers further than one year ago, they might see their own folly more clearly.
Read More @ Alt-Market.com




Counterfeit Money, Counterfeit Policy

by Charles Hugh Smith, OfTwoMinds.com:
What is the difference between printing money and counterfeiting? There is none.
Counterfeiting is illegal because it is the false creation of value. The counterfeiter takes low-value paper and turns it into high-value money, which is fundamentally a claim on the real productive value of the economy that issues the currency and recognizes it as a proxy means of exchanging that productive value.
Counterfeiting is illegal because the counterfeiter creates no additional value–he creates only the proxy for value. Creating real value–adding meaningful goods or services to the economy–is tedious, hard work. How much easier to simply transform near-worthless paper into a claim on actual goods and services.
If this is illegal, then would somebody please arrest the Board of the Federal Reserve for counterfeiting? The Fed has blatantly printed money without creating any real value to back up their added claims on productive value. Hence they are counterfeiting, pure and simple. A government based on rule of law would arrest these fraudsters and cons at the earliest possible convenience.
Read More @ OfTwoMinds.com



Rick Rule: Gold, Silver, Takeovers & 2,000% Gains

from King World News:
With continued volatility in gold, silver and global stock markets, today King World News interviewed Rick Rule, Founder of Global Resource Investments and one of the most street smart pros in the resource sector. KWN reached out to Rick, who is currently in New Zealand, to find out what his thoughts were on how investors can make money in 2012. First, here is what Rule had to say about the action in gold and silver: “I continue to believe that when rational people are confronted with the choice between owning dollars or euros or owning gold, increasingly people are owning gold. I continue to believe the intermediate and longer-term move in the gold price is higher. I think the gold price, in US dollar terms, moves inexorably higher.”
Rick Rule continues: Read More @ KingWorldNews.com





‘Currency Wars’ Hotting Up

from GoldMoney.com:
The Forbidden City, Beijing Gold and silver prices paused for breath yesterday following their price breakouts last week. Gold for April delivery at the New York Comex settled down 0.1% at $1,734.40 per troy ounce, while silver for March delivery lost 26 cents (0.8%), settling at $33.53 per troy ounce. Both metals have however put in good showings in trading today, with the gold price hitting $1,740 and silver just a whisker away from $34.
Gains in the US dollar yesterday hurt commodities generally, though this morning the Dollar Index has fallen back below 79. This is largely because of growing optimism among traders that eurozone officials and Greece’s private creditors are close to some sort of deal to “restructure” that nation’s debt.
Read More @ GoldMoney.com




Have You Ever….

from End of The American Dream:
Have you ever wondered what our world is going to look like five or ten years down the road? Well, today our world is changing at a pace that is faster than ever before, and the decisions that we all make right now are going to have a dramatic affect on the years ahead. In many ways, 2012 represents a huge turning point for America. There will be a presidential election, 33 seats in the U.S. Senate will be contested and every single seat in the U.S. House of Representatives will be up for grabs. But the changes that are happening in America go much deeper than politics. Anger and frustration are growing to frightening levels, and we have become a deeply divided nation. Our affluence is rapidly crumbling and our national values are being transformed at a staggering pace. America is drowning in debt, addicted to entertainment and full of people that think they know it all. America is arrogant, cocky, smug, brash and full of pride. But if we continue down the road that we are currently on, we will be greatly humbled someday. It is just a matter of time.
In life, sometimes the questions are almost more important than the answers.
Read More @ EndOfTheAmericanDream.com




Panopticon Coming to a Neighbourhood Near You!

from DollarVigilante.com:

The US is fast becoming one massive open air prison camp. Few realize that one by one their natural rights are being stripped by the fascist “criminal” law system. As we’ve noted in the past, more than 30% of those under 23 have been arrested as the fascist US Government works to ensnare as many as possible into permanent indentured servitude through a criminal record. From the New Yorker
Over all, there are now more people under “correctional supervision” in America—more than six million—than were in the Gulag Archipelago under Stalin at its height. That city of the confined and the controlled, Lockuptown, is now the second largest in the United States.
Once you have that special status the doors quickly close for you, and you will never be able to legally escape from the US. Your travel will be restricted and you will not be eligible to apply for a foreign passport.
Read More @ DollarVigilante.com




Economics Lesson 1

by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, PaulCraigRoberts.org:

Last Friday (January 27) the US Bureau of Economic Analysis announced its advance estimate that in the last quarter of 2011 the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in real inflation-adjusted terms, an increase from the annual rate of growth in the third quarter.
Good news, right?
Wrong. If you want to know what is really happening, you must turn to John Williams at shadowstats.com.
What the presstitute media did not tell us is that almost the entire gain In GDP growth was due to “involuntary inventory build-up,” that is, more goods were produced than were sold.
Net of the unsold goods, the annualized real growth rate was eight-tenths of one percent.
Read More @ PaulCraigRoberts.org




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