Thursday, January 12, 2012

Fox News’ Christmas Card Tells the Story: They Think Their Viewers Are Sheep

by SGT:
The alternative media is buzzing today about the Fox News 2011 Christmas card. The card features a sled race in which a “Fox” is outpacing it’s rivals, ABC, NBC and CBS, as CNN and MSNBC look on from the sidelines.

Curiously, instead of being pulled by sled dogs or by reindeer which would be appropriate for the season, all four sleds are being pulled by… sheep. It’s just another example of how the mainstream media’s disdain for the American public continues to grow by the day. And what’s truly remarkable is, they don’t even try to hide it any more.
According to The Cutline blog on Yahoo, the Christmas card was distributed to media journalists. You can read more about it, here.



Ron Paul - War Propaganda 

 



Bill Gross Vomits All Over "Putrid" 30 Year Bond Auction

Just like in yesterday's weakish 10 Year auction, the thunder from Tuesday's strong 3 Year has all but gone. In today's issuance of $13 billion in 30 year reopening, the results were anything but strong, with the bond pricing at 2.985%, a a 3 bps tail compared to the 2.955% When Issued. Furthermore, the BTC was a big drop compared to last auction's record 2.98, coming at 2.60, compared to 2.68 in the last 12 auctions. And with Indirects taking down just 31.9%, and Directs sliding to a one year low of 7.2%, it means that it was the Fed, via the Primary Dealer repo mechanism that once again took down a whopping 60.9% of the entire auction. Needless to say, the bond market response was not pleasant, but was to be expected as the Fed continues to artificially massage the curve in any and every way possible. Most hilarious, however, was the tweet sent out by Bill Gross in the minutes after the auction which we present below: it speaks for itself.




Taxpayer Money For Mortgages; More Foreclosures in 2012

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 31 minutes ago
*"Mitt Romney is a conservative - just like George W. Bush is a real cowboy" * - Unknown source I need to unload two huge sources of irritation today based on reports that I guarantee you will not be presented on Fox News, Fox Business, CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN etc. I sourced these from an excellent source for housing market news, http://www.housingwire.com/. I mentioned the other day that FRE had implemented a program to enable those without a job to go for up to 12 months without making a mortgage payment. While the thought of this is nice, make no mistake, the expense of this wi... more » 


 

Gold, Silver and Copper responding to low interest rate environment

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 2 hours ago
All three of the above commodities are responding to news today that inflation in China is supposedly slowing somewhat (one always has to read these numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism as the Chinese are becoming almost as adept as US official-sector statisticians). Also adding to the mix is news that the ECB will keep interest rates low and would not rule out additional rate cuts if necessary in their view. This is music to the ears of gold as it thrives in environments when there is plenty of room for more liquidity. The thinking in regards to China is that they have room to... more » 


 

It May Not Feel Like It, But It's Risk-On

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 3 hours ago
Risk-on bursts tend to be short and sweet within an ongoing debt crisis, but they do mark periods of time in which gold and silver accelerate on the upside. These bursts are magnified in chart 1 and framed over the long term in chart 2. Chart 1: Risk-On Versus Risk-Off Chart 2: Risk-On Versus Risk-Off Long-Term Perspective [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]



Risk-On Train Slowly Gaining Momentum

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 3 hours ago
ADN(E), a propriety composite measure of market breadth (participation), recorded a new, all-time high yesterday. Its growing, bullish divergence with price, relative to both July and October swing highs, illustrates a surge in potential energy within the equity trend. This bullish divergence suggests that the risk-on train is slowly gaining momentum. Investors, still shell-shocked by the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Gold encountering resistance near $1650

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 14 hours ago
Gold bulls have performed admirably since the last few trading days of 2011 having taken the gold price up over $100 since that time period. The rally has been very impressive, especially given the strength in the US Dollar and the move to a brand new 52 week low in the Euro. However, bulls are now at an inflection point technically and will need to drive it up through today's session high just shy of $1650 if they are going to be able to force a larger number of shorts out and take this thing to the next layer of heavy chart resistance near the $1,680 level. The market has been enc... more » 




Economic Collapse -- Why It Won't Be Stopped






Pimco Doubles Down On All In Bet Fed Will Monetize MBS


When back in December we observed that Pimco's Total Return Fund (which contrary to rumors actually closed the year at $244 billion, or $4 billion more than in the beginning) had a $60 billion margin "cash" position, the proceeds of which were used to purchase a near record $103 billion in Mortgage Backed Securities we thought this is about as far as Bill Gross would go betting the ranch on QE3, and specifically that kind of QE3 that assumes at least a big portion is used to buys MBS (the same instrument that SocGen believes, along with gold, will benefit the most from an imminent QE3 announcement). It turns out we were wrong, and in December the fund doubled down on its QE3 all in bet, by "borrowing" even more cash, or a record $78 billion, using the proceeds to buy even more MBS, as well as Treasurys, which hit a combined 31% of the TRF's holdings. In other words, between MBS and USTs, Pimco holds a whopping 79% of total, mostly in very long duration exposure. In fact, this combination of long duration and pre-QE exposure has not been seen at PIMCO since late 2008, early 2009, meaning that as many banks have been suggesting, Gross is convinced that the Fed will announce if not outright QE3 this January, then at least intimate it is coming.




The Biggest Threat To The 2012 Economy Is??? Not What Wall Street Is Telling You...
Reggie Middleton
01/12/2012 - 11:13
Imagine pensions not paying retiree funds, insurers not paying claims, and banks collapsing everywhere. Sounds like fun? I will be discussing this live on RT's Capital Account with the lusciously... 
 
 
 
 

Dear U.S.A.: Your Account Is Overdrawn

Dear U.S.A.--your overdraft protection is about to be pulled.
Dear United States of America: We regret to inform you that your withdrawals exceeded your deposits last year by $1,600,000,000,000 ($1.6 trillion), including your "supplemental appropriations" spending.
Your account does have an overdraft protection, and so bonds were sold to cover your $1.6 trillion overdraft. While we value your business, we feel obligated to remind you that this is the third year that your overdraft protection exceeded 10% of your gross national product (GDP), and it seems your account is on course to register yet another $1.6 trillion overdraft in fiscal year 2012.
Currently, your overdraft account exceeds your GDP of $15 trillion.




Market Implies Greek Devaluation To 1530 Drachma Versus Euro

On the day when Greek 1Y yields broke above 400% for the first time, a consideration of just what Greece would look like post-exit is perhaps fruitful. Looking at hypothetical forward rates (generated from covered interest rate parity between EURUSD FX and EMU sovereign interest rates), MSCI has an interesting analysis of what a decoupled Drachma (and for that matter Lira, Escudo, and Irish Pound) would look like. Given the Greeks entered the EMU in January 2001 at 340.75 Drachma to the Euro, the current market is pricing in a massive devaluation to around 1530 Drachma to the Euro. Perhaps as further evidence of the market's perspective that a devaluation is likely, from extremely high correlations just over a year ago, the implied new Greek Drachma vs Euro has dropped to almost negligible correlation against an implicit Deutschmark vs Euro. As the PSI discussions go from bad to worse (as we expected and discussed yesterday), it seems the market is increasingly expecting at best a coercive agreement (if not outright exit).




Egan-Jones Downgrades Sears To Lowest Rating Above Default


Following today's increasingly more adverse news for Sears, which saw primary vendor funder CIT cut ties with the Eddie Lampert mega investment, it was only a matter of time before the market realized that the jig for the once bankrupt retailer may be up, and a Chapter 22 is the only possible option. Sure enough, the first to respond to this is the rating agency that not only is capable of forward looking activity, unlike all the other NRSROs, and also managed to get Jefferies to admit it had a far greater European exposure than the market was comfortable with (resulting in a major cut in gross and net, and a far greater transparency into its balance sheet). As of minutes ago, Egan Jones just downgraded Sears Holdings to the lowest rating just above default: C, from CC.




Plunge In NYSE Short Interest Explains Recent Market Rally

UPDATE: As an observation, QQQ Short-Interest is at 11 year lows (January 2001), down 43% into year-end
Curious what has provoked a vicious year end (and 2012 year beginning) Santa Rally, which until today had seen the S&P trade higher on 12 out of 15 consecutive days? Wonder no more: the reason is the same it has always been - year end short covering, which in turn has spilt over into the new year's momentum chasing HFT brigade and the occasional retail momo who still has some cash left after covering commission costs. According to the latest NYSE biweekly update, the short interest as of the end of 2011 was a modest 12.8 billion shares, a sharp drop from the 13.4 billion and 14.2 billion 2 and 4 weeks prior, and certainly a very far cry from the over 16 billion shares short which market the market bottom in late September. Also, for anyone wondering why so far 2012 is an identical replica of 2011, decoupling and all, look no further than the SI data as of early 2011 - SSDD. Short covered, and only as the year unwound did they dare to challenge the central banks and to increase their shorting activity.




Want To Trade FX On Inside Information? Here Is How To Do It, Straight From Kashya Hildebrand

Wondering how wives of (ex) central bankers would engage in insider trading if that was their intent (forgetting for a second that if one is the wife of a central banker one probably should not be engaging in any FX transaction to begin with)? Now we know, courtesy of this first interview with the wife of the former SNB head following his departure in which she tell us how a former Moore Capital currency trader would engage in FX insider trading "if one wanted to..."




China Soaring Skyscrapers Latest Confirmation Of Housing Bubble, Barclays Finds

There has been an unhealthy correlation between construction of the next world's tallest building and an impending financial crisis over time. Barclays Capital points to their Skyscraper Index and the developments in New York 1930, Chicago 1974, Kuala Lumpur 1997, and Dubai 2010 but as they note "the world's tallest building is often simply the edifice of a broader skyscraper building boom, reflecting a widespread mis-allocation of capital and an impending correction." Incredibly, China has 53% of all the world's skyscrapers under construction (today's biggest bubble builder) and will expand the total number of skyscrapers by 87% by 2017. China is not alone as another hopeful driver of global growth, India, is ramping up its skyscraper development and now has 14 under construction (and is constructing the world's second tallest building, the Tower of India, which should be completed by 2016. As BARCAP concludes, if history is any guide, this building boom (and increasing geographic dispersion) in China (and India) is simply a reflection of massive mis-allocation of capital, which may result in an economic correction for two of Asia's largest economies in the next five years.




UK Debt Infographic: All You Need To Know

Confused by the untenable UK debt (and as the country is the latest to re-jump on the QE bandwagon, it is only going higher)? The following inforgraphic from Borrow money online should explain it all.






Art Cashin Explains Why The One Key Indicator That Matters For Italy Is Flashing Red

While economic data may be manipulated daily, and markets can be pumped in any of many different ways (such as the ongoing preparation by the ECB to accept any collateral for the upcoming LTRO which will bring the ECB's deposit facility usage to $1 trillion), there is one true indicator of economic prospects: immigration. Long a target for immigrants from all over the world, something has changed very drastically for Italy in recent days. Art Cashin explains why the one indicator that matters - Italy's desirability for immigrants from countries such as Afghanistan and Bangladesh, means everything has changed now.




Houston, We Have Recoupling - Initial Claims Back Over 400,000 (Post Next Week's Revision), Retail Sales Ex Autos Worst Since Early 2010


Remember that whole "US is decoupling" theme so pathologically spread around by two-bit propaganda media outfits staffed by journalism B.A. majors? Time to put it in the trash where it belongs. As long expected, the temp hire surge, so effectively used by retailers to dump inventory below cost (just ask Sears), is over, and in the first week of 2012, Seasonally Adjusted claims soared to 399,000, the highest since November and a number which next week will be revised over 400,000, a decimation of expectations of 375,000 (naturally last week's number was revised upward from 372K to 375K - a long-lasting BLS tradition of fudging data that everyone knows about now). The Non-Seasonally adjusted number was +102,314 claims in the first week of the year. And the real question is how many of these real departures were of the banker type, where the impact on lost withholding taxes going forward, and thus government revenues, will be quite dire. Continuing claims also missed expectations, rising to 3628K from a revised 3609K (expectation was for an unchanged print, pre revision, of 3595K). And the worst news is that the 99-week cliff continues to grab more and more, with 48k people dropping off all rolls, and thus from the labor force completely, meaning the labor force participation rate in January will likely drop to another fresh 30 year low. But the horrendous jobs update was only one part. The other one focuses on actual consumer spending, as confirmed by the major miss in retail sales which were up 0.1% on expectations of 0.3%, but the entire gain was due to car purchases primarily driven by cheap govt-funded subprime credit for GM vehicles. Sales ex-autos actually declined by 0.2%, on an expectation of 0.3% rise: this was the first decline and worst print since early 2010. So much for the consumer-led recovery. And so much for the unemployment pick up. And so much for the decoupling. The chart below shows what will happen as the world finally reconverges, as was posted yesterday.





Draghi Sees Substantial Downside Risks

UPDATE: EURUSD at highs of day now 1.2790, sovereigns and corps/fins tightening back modestly
The ECB press conference has begun and immediately the headlines are flying and driving EUR weaker (ironically not helped by the dismal US macro data that just printed). European sovereign spreads are leaking wider, stocks are underperforming, treasuries outperforming bunds, and corporate and financial spreads are widening rapidly on his comments, via Bloomberg:
  • *DRAGHI SAYS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FACING SUBSTANTIAL DOWNSIDE RISKS
  • *DRAGHI SAYS FISCAL COMPACT MUST HAVE UNAMBIGUOUS WORDING
  • *DRAGHI SAYS FISCAL CONSOLIDATIONS ARE UNAVOIDABLE
  • *DRAGHI SAYS ECB WILL ACT AS AGENT FOR EFSF
  • *DRAGHI SAYS HARD DATA DON'T YET SHOW STABILIZATION
  • *DRAGHI SAYS HILDEBRAND WAS `VERY, VERY GOOD' GOVERNOR
  • *DRAGHI SAYS ECB DIDN'T DISCUSS CUTTING DEPOSIT, MARGINAL RATES
  • *DRAGHI SAYS ONGOING TENSIONS KEEP DAMPING ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
  • *DRAGHI SAYS ECB `VERY CONCERNED' ON HUNGARY
  • *DRAGHI SAYS ANY WAY TO INCREASE THE 'FIREWALL' FIREPOWER WELCOME
  • *DRAGHI: NATIONS SHOULD HAVE HAD CAPITAL READY ON STRESS TESTS
  • *DRAGHI SAYS NEW COLLATERAL RULES EXPANDED POTENTIAL RISK
  • *DRAGHI SAYS PSI WAS RESPONSE TO `SELFISH' BEHAVIOR
  • *DRAGHI SAYS ECB EXPECTS SUBSTANTIAL DEMAND FOR SECOND LTRO
  • *DRAGHI SAYS GREEK CASE IS `UNIQUE'




Systematic Shutdown Of (2.4MM Barrels Per Day) Nigerian Oil Ahead

Crude prices rose modestly this morning so far (up to $102) as news of the Nigerian oil and gas union will shut down all production starting Sunday in a nationwide strike over fuel prices. As the Associated Press reports, the nationwide strike has been under way since Monday and the 20,000 oil and gas union members joining on Sunday will mean a top supplier of crude to the US (approximately 2.4mm barrels per day) will stop production. The union notes that the Nigerian government's reversal of a two-decade-long subsidy program to keep gas prices low for Nigerians "forced them to go ahead and apply the bitter option of ordering the systematic shutting down of oil and gas production." The market for now does not seem too bothered by this drop in supply, even in the tight markets we are facing, as most of the oil move seems driven by USD weakness post the ECB decision - perhaps things will change when the unions call the market's bluff on Sunday?




Merkel Party Lawmaker Says Greece Must Leave Eurozone

Even as we are drowned by yet another avalanche of lies and cow feces that the Greek private sector bailout negotiation is going well, despite everyone knowing very well by now that various hedge funds like Saba, York and CapeView are holding the entire process hostage and the culmination will be a CDS trigger, the underlying dynamics of the Greek "bailout" once again resurface, which are and always have been all about Germany and the tensions within its various political parties. And unfortunately at this point things are looking quite bad for Greece. As Bloomberg reports, "Greece will have to exit the euro area as it struggles under a mountain of debt, unable to regain its competitiveness without having its own currency to devalue, a senior lawmaker in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party said. The comments by Michael Fuchs, the deputy floor leader for Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, contradict the chancellor’s stance in a sign of the domestic headwinds she faces in leading Europe’s efforts to keep the 17-member euro area intact. With the debt crisis into its third year, Merkel is due to join CDU lawmakers at a two-day policy meeting beginning tomorrow in the northern German city of Kiel." The truth hurts: "For Greece, “the problem is not whether they are capable of paying their loans -- they will not, not at all, never." So, why are we optimistic on Europe again? Oh yes, because European banks issued tons of equity and now have a capital buffer to the imminent hurricane that will be unleashed once the Greek restructuring finally enters freefall mode and the country leaves the Eurozone. No wait, that's not right: only UniCredit tried that and its stock collapsed by 50%. Must be something else then - oh yes, Italy successfully sold debt maturing in one year!




Please consider making a small donation, to help cover some of the labor and cost for this blog.

Thank You

I'm PayPal Verified     

 



 

No comments:

Post a Comment