Nouriel
Roubini, the economist credited with having foreseen the credit crunch,
has warned that the eurozone will collapse within the year – with
Greece and Portugal leaving.
by Angela Monaghan, Telegraph.co.uk:
“The eurozone is a slow-motion train wreck,” Mr Roubini said. “Countries – and not just Greece – are insolvent. I think Greece will leave the eurozone in the next 12 months, and Portugal after.”
The New York University professor of economics was speaking at one of the final sessions of the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos.
“There is a 50pc chance that the eurozone will break up in the next three to five years. This doesn’t look like a G20 world it looks like a G-Zero world because there is no agreement on global imbalances, how to change the international monetary system, international trade, banking regulation, on all the fundamental issues.”
The economist also warned that if the US and Iran went to war, oil prices would spike 50pc and there’ll be a global recession.
Read More @ Telegraph.co.uk
In
this week's chartology from Goldman's David Kostin there is the usual
plethora of useful data, but two slides deserve a very special mention
because with 39% of the S&P already reporting Q4 data, the
implication is quite dire. If Kostin is correct, then the corporate
margin juggernaut, which recently hit an all time high in Q3 of 2011,
and which has for all intents and purposes been the one offset to deteriorating economic conditions, recurring
Fed stimuli to the economy aside, has officially peaked and is now
rolling over. This has huge implications for virtually everything, as it
means that after 3 years of layoffs, corporate America has finally cut
through all the fat and is now officially chopping into muscle with
every additional layoff. It also means that going forward no matter how
many workers are laid off, the corporate margin rate wil not increase.
Furthermore, if Bernanke or Draghi officially launch
another inflationary easing episode which more than anything exports
inflation to China, which in turn reexports it back to America in the
form of rising COGS, margins will compress even more. In
other words, the US economy, which sadly has been "defined" as the
Russell 2000 and/or the DJIA, is tipping over. And with companies
posting a near record low positive earnings surprise ratio, we are once
again amazed how yet another Goldman team may have well called the
absolute peak in the market with its long Russell call from two days ago.
by Angela Monaghan, Telegraph.co.uk:
“The eurozone is a slow-motion train wreck,” Mr Roubini said. “Countries – and not just Greece – are insolvent. I think Greece will leave the eurozone in the next 12 months, and Portugal after.”
The New York University professor of economics was speaking at one of the final sessions of the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos.
“There is a 50pc chance that the eurozone will break up in the next three to five years. This doesn’t look like a G20 world it looks like a G-Zero world because there is no agreement on global imbalances, how to change the international monetary system, international trade, banking regulation, on all the fundamental issues.”
The economist also warned that if the US and Iran went to war, oil prices would spike 50pc and there’ll be a global recession.
Read More @ Telegraph.co.uk
Greece Politely Declines German Annexation Demands
Following yesterday's frankly stunning news that the Troika politely requests that Greece hand over its first fiscal, then pretty much all other, sovereignty to "Europe", here is the Greek just as polite response to the Troika's foray into outright colonialism:- GREEK GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN DECLARES THAT THE BUDGET IS SOLELY ITS RESPONSIBILITY - DJ
Cutting Into Muscle - The Record Corporate Margin Juggernaut Has Just Rolled Over
In
this week's chartology from Goldman's David Kostin there is the usual
plethora of useful data, but two slides deserve a very special mention
because with 39% of the S&P already reporting Q4 data, the
implication is quite dire. If Kostin is correct, then the corporate
margin juggernaut, which recently hit an all time high in Q3 of 2011,
and which has for all intents and purposes been the one offset to deteriorating economic conditions, recurring
Fed stimuli to the economy aside, has officially peaked and is now
rolling over. This has huge implications for virtually everything, as it
means that after 3 years of layoffs, corporate America has finally cut
through all the fat and is now officially chopping into muscle with
every additional layoff. It also means that going forward no matter how
many workers are laid off, the corporate margin rate wil not increase.
Furthermore, if Bernanke or Draghi officially launch
another inflationary easing episode which more than anything exports
inflation to China, which in turn reexports it back to America in the
form of rising COGS, margins will compress even more. In
other words, the US economy, which sadly has been "defined" as the
Russell 2000 and/or the DJIA, is tipping over. And with companies
posting a near record low positive earnings surprise ratio, we are once
again amazed how yet another Goldman team may have well called the
absolute peak in the market with its long Russell call from two days ago.
The Silver Bullet and the Silver Shield – Part 6. Physical Silver Has NO Counterparty Risk
Price, as they say, is determined on the margins. This is
especially true for inelastic goods. If 100 Tickle Me Elmo dolls exist
in Walmart on Christmas eve, and 100 people absolutely need to have
them, you don’t have a problem. The price will be some reasonable markup
on the cost of production. However, if one more person walks in fearing
the wrath of his child if there’s no Elmo under the tree, Walmart (WMT)
can quickly turn into a war zone. In Walmart, this supply shortage
might be settled by shoving and hair pulling. In a civilized market,
this supply, demand inequity is settled with price. In the case of Elmo
in 1996, some dolls were reportedly sold in aftermarkets for $1500.
This is an important concept to keep in mind when evaluating the silver market. Silver is interesting because it is actually two different markets. On one hand, silver is a physical commodity that is used in industry or warehoused as physical savings. This market is rather inelastic on the supply and demand side as I will discuss in a bit. On the other hand is the silver derivatives market, paper contracts for silver, that set the spot price on the margins. The paper market is elastic and depends more on investor psychology than underlying fundamentals.
Read More @ SeekingAlpha.com
This is an important concept to keep in mind when evaluating the silver market. Silver is interesting because it is actually two different markets. On one hand, silver is a physical commodity that is used in industry or warehoused as physical savings. This market is rather inelastic on the supply and demand side as I will discuss in a bit. On the other hand is the silver derivatives market, paper contracts for silver, that set the spot price on the margins. The paper market is elastic and depends more on investor psychology than underlying fundamentals.
Read More @ SeekingAlpha.com
Gold and silver rise again/Greece/Italy/Portugal/Spain all in turmoil as Fitch downgrades
Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 36 minutes ago
Good
morning Ladies and Gentlemen:Before commencing my report, here our
Friday's entrants to the banking morgue:1. Bank East, Knoxville
Tennessee
2. Patriot Bank of Minnesota, Forest Lake MN
3. First Guaranty Bank and Trust of Jacksonville Fla, Jacksonsville FL
3. Tennessee Commerce Bank of Franklin, TNThe price of gold rose on
Friday finishing the comex session at $1731.80 up $5.80 on the
High Inflation Rates Always Benefits People With A Lot Of Assets
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 38 minutes ago
Every society that went through high inflation rates, whether it was the
U.S. in the 1980s or Zimbabwe or Germany, it always benefits people with a
lot of assets, and people without assets are hurt. So inequality increases.
That leads to a redistribution of wealth through taxation, or through
social revolution it leads to poverty for everyone. - *in this year's
annual forecast dinner put on by the Edmonton CFA Society of financial
analysts*
*Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*
Index Investing vs. Active Management
Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 1 hour ago
"Index investing outperforms active management year after year." - *a
famous Jim Rogers quote*
*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful
international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New
York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The
Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*
Is the Stock Market Rally of 2012 Over?
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 3 hours ago
Is the stock market rally of 2012 almost over? The message of the market as defined by a positive divergence of market breadth relative to price says no. Market breadth ADN(E), a proprietary measure of market participation and internal force behind the trend, has pushed to all-time highs while price still languishes below its 2007 high. A build up of internal energy increases that probability... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
Ron Paul Best Choice for a Strong Defense
GDP Hidden Truth
Freedom or Fascism in America?
Drone Wars: NYC
Lew Rockwell talks to Mark Carbonaro of KION Monterey, California, about freedom, democracy, the runaway executive, and the man who wants to rein it in.
Click Here to Listen to the Interview
from CaseyResearch.com:
Dear Reader,
Vedran Vuk here, filling in for David Galland. Today we’ll cover a number of topics, most importantly Bud Conrad’s coverage of the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. For a while, investors were basically allowed to sleep through these Federal Open Market Committee statements – we get it; they’re keeping rates low. However, this meeting had a few key points that should stir investors from their slumber. I’ll start with a discussion about the weakening core of European nations. Then I’ll return to touch on other topics of interest.
Cracks in the European Core
by Vedran Vuk, Senior Analyst
While the euro crisis has taken a momentary breather, let’s not forget the even bigger dangers on the horizon. We’ve all seen the spreads between the PIIGS and German bonds. Needless to say, they aren’t pretty. But another chart is scaring me even more at the moment: It’s the 10-year bond spread between Germany and France:
Read More @ CaseyResearch.com
Dear Reader,
Vedran Vuk here, filling in for David Galland. Today we’ll cover a number of topics, most importantly Bud Conrad’s coverage of the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. For a while, investors were basically allowed to sleep through these Federal Open Market Committee statements – we get it; they’re keeping rates low. However, this meeting had a few key points that should stir investors from their slumber. I’ll start with a discussion about the weakening core of European nations. Then I’ll return to touch on other topics of interest.
Cracks in the European Core
by Vedran Vuk, Senior Analyst
While the euro crisis has taken a momentary breather, let’s not forget the even bigger dangers on the horizon. We’ve all seen the spreads between the PIIGS and German bonds. Needless to say, they aren’t pretty. But another chart is scaring me even more at the moment: It’s the 10-year bond spread between Germany and France:
Read More @ CaseyResearch.com
[Ed. Note: Holy CRAPA, these things are getting hard to keep TRAKA.]
by Stephen Lendman:
Internet freedom’s on the line. SOPA and PIPA threatened Net Neutrality and free expression. So does ACTA. More on it below.
For now, the largest online protest in Internet history got Congress to abandon SOPA and PIPA but not permanently. Expect resurrection in modified form. Language may change but not intent. ACTA’s worse.
Launched on October 23, 2007, America, the EU, Switzerland and Japan began secretly negotiating a new intellectual property enforcement treaty – the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA).
Other nations got involved, including Canada, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand, Mexico, Jordan, Singapore, and the UAE. Ostensibly for counterfeit goods protection, it’s about fast-tracking Internet distribution and information technology rules at the expense of Net Neutrality, privacy, and personal freedoms.
Read More @ SJLendman.Blogspot.com
by Stephen Lendman:
Internet freedom’s on the line. SOPA and PIPA threatened Net Neutrality and free expression. So does ACTA. More on it below.For now, the largest online protest in Internet history got Congress to abandon SOPA and PIPA but not permanently. Expect resurrection in modified form. Language may change but not intent. ACTA’s worse.
Launched on October 23, 2007, America, the EU, Switzerland and Japan began secretly negotiating a new intellectual property enforcement treaty – the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA).
Other nations got involved, including Canada, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand, Mexico, Jordan, Singapore, and the UAE. Ostensibly for counterfeit goods protection, it’s about fast-tracking Internet distribution and information technology rules at the expense of Net Neutrality, privacy, and personal freedoms.
Read More @ SJLendman.Blogspot.com
from The Financial Survival Network:
Dr.
Yaron Brook has led the Ayn Rand Institute for the past 11 years. He
believes the most important debate of out time is not economic but
philosophic: you are not your brother’s keeper. Rather, your primary
purpose is to the live the best life that you possibly can. This means
being your own master and living on YOUR terms. You will be the most
successful when you are the freest to pursue your goals and dreams.
Unfortunately, this important debate is all but ignored during most
political campaigns. Until we address this threshold issue, not much
human progress will be made.
As Dr. Brook puts it, all statistics and collectivists assume your purpose on Earth is to care for your brothers in need, whether you want to or not. Even the Founding Fathers made this error, and we are all still paying the price. The big problem is that this thinking is so ingrained in all of our psyches, that very few us even know we should be questioning it. However, through the work of Ayn Rand and her followers, as well as the institute, a true debate about forced altruism is now being had. And this can only be a good thing that will eventually free man from the shackles of unlimited government.
Click Here to Listen to the Podcast
Dr.
Yaron Brook has led the Ayn Rand Institute for the past 11 years. He
believes the most important debate of out time is not economic but
philosophic: you are not your brother’s keeper. Rather, your primary
purpose is to the live the best life that you possibly can. This means
being your own master and living on YOUR terms. You will be the most
successful when you are the freest to pursue your goals and dreams.
Unfortunately, this important debate is all but ignored during most
political campaigns. Until we address this threshold issue, not much
human progress will be made.As Dr. Brook puts it, all statistics and collectivists assume your purpose on Earth is to care for your brothers in need, whether you want to or not. Even the Founding Fathers made this error, and we are all still paying the price. The big problem is that this thinking is so ingrained in all of our psyches, that very few us even know we should be questioning it. However, through the work of Ayn Rand and her followers, as well as the institute, a true debate about forced altruism is now being had. And this can only be a good thing that will eventually free man from the shackles of unlimited government.
Click Here to Listen to the Podcast
by Alasdair Macleod, GoldMoney.com:
Both
the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are now offering
limitless quantities of new money – the ECB to support the banks, and
the Fed for reasons (despite explanations) that are not entirely clear.
The Fed in its press release announced that it expected interest rates
to “warrant exceptionally low levels for the Federal Funds Rate at least
through late 2014.” The fact that the central banks governing the two
most important currencies in the world are issuing money to all-comers
at very little interest cost for up three years has not been lost on
gold and silver, whose prices shot up in response to the Fed’s
announcement.
The Fed has effectively extended its zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) for another 18 months. The reason stated is “low rates of resource utilisation and a subdued outlook for inflation in the medium run”. More important perhaps and unsaid is the presidential election due later this year and the need to finance a deficit that seems impossible to cut.
Read More @ GoldMoney.com
Both
the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are now offering
limitless quantities of new money – the ECB to support the banks, and
the Fed for reasons (despite explanations) that are not entirely clear.
The Fed in its press release announced that it expected interest rates
to “warrant exceptionally low levels for the Federal Funds Rate at least
through late 2014.” The fact that the central banks governing the two
most important currencies in the world are issuing money to all-comers
at very little interest cost for up three years has not been lost on
gold and silver, whose prices shot up in response to the Fed’s
announcement.The Fed has effectively extended its zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) for another 18 months. The reason stated is “low rates of resource utilisation and a subdued outlook for inflation in the medium run”. More important perhaps and unsaid is the presidential election due later this year and the need to finance a deficit that seems impossible to cut.
Read More @ GoldMoney.com
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