Thursday, January 19, 2012

Jim Sinclair: There Will Be a Run on Gold Stored in the US

from King World News:
With gold remaining firm above $1,650, today King World News interviewed legendary Jim Sinclair, to get his take on where things are headed. Sinclair surprised KWN by telling us there would be a run, by European countries, on the gold they have stored at the New York Fed. Here is what Sinclair had to say when we asked him if the IMF would be selling any gold: “No. The role of gold has changed and gold is moving more toward the central bank then away from it. On top of that you have seen a significant amount of media attention towards, ‘Where is our gold?’ This is taking place in the European press.”
Jim Sinclair continues: Read More @ KingWorldNews.com

 

 

Greece and a report on the PSI/IMFGlobal/Bank of America earnings farce

Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 54 minutes ago
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: Gold closed down today to the tune of $5.40 dollars finishing the comex session at $1654.10  Silver finished down 4 cents to $30.48. Today the raid was a no brainer on behalf of the bankers as we witnessed a huge run up in open interest and that is fodder for these crooks. Gold bounced off the $1650 price level four times today.  The weak gold and silver




Ron Paul – College of Charleston Bully Pulpit Series 01/19/12





Bob Janjuah: "Payback For The Rally Is Coming In Q2"

Bob "The Bear" Janjuah may appear a little greyer than his previous appearance on Bloomberg TV but his thoughts on the 'weaker-for-longer' recovery are as clarifying as ever as he sees Q2 as payback time for the misunderstanding of a mini US business cycle as a real sustainable recovery. Noting that the LTRO does not fix Europe, he sees the worst still ahead for the 'Eurozone mess'. Discussing expectations for Fed QE3 and moderating growth in Asia/EM, he believes that markets are likely to get ahead of themselves (or have done) even as he recognizes his potential underestimation of the market's perception of LTRO's impact on sentiment (pulling forward risk appetite from a QE-driven Q2 rally to the current Q1 ripfest). As we have argued, Bob notes that we are simply not addressing growth or solvency and Q2 will be the payback (looking for a 1000 print in the S&P 500 index by quarter-end) for the policy- and liquidity-driven rally we are undergoing.




Michael Krieger Summarizes "The Building Tension"


The reason I don’t write about markets so much anymore is because I don’t believe there are markets any longer. Sure there are flashing prices on the screens for various assets and those can be addicting to look at on a daily basis, but I think these “markets” are now merely a mechanism for government propaganda and a method to ultimately fleece more money from the uniformed masses that play in it by the casino operators and their puppets in government. It’s basically a hologram. I have alluded to this in recent interviews, but I myself feel extremely uncomfortable being involved at this point in a way I have never felt before. For now, I am still willing to play the game with some of my own capital but I fear I may regret this decision and that the smart thing would be to pull out completely and go entirely into hard assets as well as real estate abroad. This game is not safe. By definition, the longer the period of tension building the more explosive the release will be when it ultimately happens. This period has already been going on for almost five months with only minor releases so I think we are already staring down the barrel of something horrific. Should they actually succeed and delaying the release until after the election I expect the release scenario to be downright cataclysmic. Should they succeed to delay it that far I hope I am wise enough to pull the remainder of my assets out of this casino beforehand and get entirely physical.

Silver's Lease Spread Has Turned Positive

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 6 hours ago
Negative lease spreads setup Silver's D-wave decline(s) of 2008. Once price collapsed, lease spreads turned positive and peaked. Spreads peaked as price bottomed in late 2008. This setup the accelerating advance of 2009-2011. Real Silver Lease Rates (1-Month LIBOR less 1-Month SOFO) and London PM Fixed Silver Price Silver's lease spread has turned positive in 2012. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]


Recognize & Anticpate, Let Historians Classify

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 6 hours ago
Hyperinflation represents a political event? Interesting….then what distinguishes the difference between a monetary and political event? Monetary events tend to be result of centralized mismanagement through "political meddling" that invariably sacrifices liberty for the benefit of control. Deflation and inflation are competing interests right now. The deflationary impact of the sovereign... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]


Gold attempting to fight off pressure from sagging gold stocks

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 6 hours ago
Once again the weakness in the gold mining shares is leading to weakness in gold as the yellow metal fights to retain its footing above the $1650 level. This is occuring even as the US Dollar is weakening and a general bid is coming into the commodity sector overall. The HUI is down nearly 2% at the time of this writing even as the S&P 500 is up 2/3 of a percent. Note that the HUI to Gold ratio it is currently pressing into levels which saw a low made last year, a level which I might note was commensurate with where it was trading way back nearly three years ago. No matter how you ... more » 



"A Longer-Term Perspective On Gold" And More, From Nomura


While lately not much, if anything, has changed in our and the broader secular outlook on gold, which has been and continues to remain the only currency equivalent that isolates devaluation risk, and excludes counterparty risk while being an implicit bet on the stupidity of those in charge (the fact that various tenured "Ph.D. economists" hate what it represents for their tenure prospects of course only makes the bullish case far stronger). True, in the past month it has surged from $1520 to $1660 but only Ph.D. economists (indeed, that 200 DMA proved to be a complete non-event) could not have foreseen that year end liquidations in a desperate drive to shore up liquidity (as explained here) by institutions, always end, and the reversion to the above thesis sooner or later reappears. So while it won't say much new, below we present Nomura's just released Gold Sector Initiation, which is a must read for new entrants to the field of physical and paper representations of gold, as well as a timely reminder for everyone else that in the past 3 years nothing has changed with the fundamental thesis, and in fact recent actions have merely reinforced it (and if we indeed have a €1 or €10 trillion LTRO, then watch all resistance levels in the metal get blown off).




ISDA Finds An Event Of Default At Eastman Kodak, Whose Bonds Are Trading 27% Higher Than Greece

ISDA, in which the I stands for Irrelevant or other even less flattering adjectives, has just released the following press release:
NEW YORK, January 19, 2012 – The International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. (ISDA) today announced that its Americas Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee resolved that a Bankruptcy Credit Event occurred in respect of Eastman Kodak Company.

The Committee determined that an auction will be held in respect of outstanding CDS transactions. ISDA will publish further information regarding the auction on its website, www.isda.org/credit, in due course.
Which is great: apparently the default of Kodak will not lead to the end of the financial system as we know it. But we have a simply question: we would love if someone at ISDA would get back to us with the answer to the following rhetorical question: which of these two charts belongs to a benchmark Eastman Kodak 2 year bond, and which to  a 2 year Greek bonds, which apparently, ISDA will never find in default. And also, why is the one found to be in a credit event trading 6 cents higher than the non-credit event one.




Tech Earnings Barrage Summary

GOOG, first on deck, swing, and a miss - Source
  • GOOGLE 4Q ADJ. EPS $9.50, EST. $10.50
  • GOOGLE 4Q REVENUE $10.58 BILLION, EST. $8.41
  • GOOGLE 4Q COST-PER-CLICK DOWN ABOUT 8%
Beat on top line, miss on EPS - Margin Compression?
Next: MSFT - Source

  • MICROSOFT 2Q REV. $20.89B, EST. $20.92B
  • MICROSOFT 2Q EPS. $0.78, EST. $0.76
  • MICROSOFT CORP BING U.S. MARKET SHARE, AT 15.1% UP 300 BPS Y/Y
  • More layoffs: Microsoft is revising operating expense guidance downward to $28.5 billion to $28.9 billion for the full year ending June 30, 2012.
Beat on bottom, miss on top
Next: IBM - Source
  • IBM 4Q REV. $29.49B, EST. $29.71B
  • IBM 4Q OPER EPS: $4.71, EST. 4.62
  • Full year 2012 Expectations: GAAP EPS of at least $14.16 and operating (non-GAAP) EPS of at least $14.85
Beat on bottom, miss on top
Next: INTC - Source
  • INTEL 4Q REV. $13.89B, EST. $13.72B
  • INTEL 4Q EPS 64C, EST. 61C
  • INTEL SEES 1Q REV. $12.8B +/- $500M, EST. $12.76B
Beat on top and bottom.




Only In Europe

While skimming the latest draft of the "TREATY ON STABILITY, COORDINATION AND GOVERNANCE IN THE ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION" or the EU fiscal draft in short, which is supposed to give Europe reason to rejoice as it says something about the ESM potentially being levered more than €500 billion (not absent additional funding of course, and we have seen how good the EFSF is in procuring capital), we have found the only two clauses worth noting. Which unfortunately show just what a farce this whole process truly is.




Presenting Where The Recycled Euro-Ponzi Cash Goes

While European leaders would prefer to eschew concerns about individual sovereign nations' ability to pay, borrow, and spend in favor of an aggregate EU that they believe reflects better in the world comparisons (if any aliens are considering stimulus support we assume), Goldman's Hugo Scott-Gall is out today with his normal compendium of insightful charts. One specifically caught our eye on How Governments Spend as we makes the critical point (from a real money investor and not a talking-head perspective) that it is crucial to look at end-market exposures as well as geography. Investors exposed to consumers in countries facing significant ongoing household deleveraging (ring any bells?) face a demand picture that is likely to be challenging for some time. In his view this is more likely Southern Europe than Northern Europe and his critical point is that while many extrapolate trends in GDP multipliers for corporate earnings expectations, the need to reduce deficits relatively quickly for many European governments will reduce corporate revenue forecasts dramatically relative to empirical ponzi spending habits.




USS Stennis Supposedly Leaves Straits Of Hormuz, Replaced By USS Lincoln With USS Vinson Staying Put, But Not Just Yet


For those following the latest naval developments in the general Arabian Sea area and the Straits of Hormuz in particular, the latest news is that the duo of Aircraft carriers on location, as was reported last week, the USS Stennis and USS Vinson, has became a trio, with the arrival of the USS Lincoln, however, if only briefly. According to the US Navy's website, CVN 74 Stennis has left the 5th Fleet, and is now back in the 7th fleet, on its way home. Yet this is somewhat contradictory with the following picture posted on the facebook profile of one CVN 72 Abraham Lincoln (yes, faceook), which quite vividly shows CVN 74 - the same Stennis - and CVN 72, Lincoln, side by side, at least as of this morning. As such, absent further photographic evidence to the contrary, it may be the case that while the Stennis is planned to be on its way back, but in reality is still in the vicinity. Which begs the question: why three aircraft carriers in the Arabian Sea, and for how long?




New Revelations On MF Global and Bank Complicity in ‘Missing’ Customer Funds

from Jesse’s CafĂ© AmĂ©ricain:

Financial violence and repression with impunity.
CFTC Rips Trustee, Says Customers Must Be Paid First
FSA Pressures NY Banks To Release Customer Funds
JP Morgan At the Center of the MF Global Failure
Futures Industry Regulator: No Way To Stop Brokers From Stealing
Read More @ JessesCrossRoadsCafe.Blogspot.com




SOPA’s War on the Financial Blogosphere, Mark-to-Market and Depression Economics w/Mish






The Economic Outlook for Canada is Dire Says the Bank of Canada

by Chris Horlacher, MapleLeafMetals.ca via DollarVigilante.com:

One typically doesn’t look to government bureaucracies for hard-nosed, objective discussions on the economy. Far too often official reports are skewed to paint a much rosier picture than what is unfolding in reality. Case in point, the repeated denials from Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve, Fannie Mae and various oversight committees circa 2006 that the US housing market was anything but an excellent place to invest your money.
So, imagine my surprise when the December 2011 Financial System Review, published quarterly by the Bank of Canada (BoC), landed in my inbox and I discovered that it contained a very sobering look at Canada’s economy and the many systemic risks we are facing! It’s not surprising that this report was not picked up by the main stream news, because if they did the popular opinion of Canada’s invincible, recession-proof economy, may begin to crumble.
Read More @ DollarVigilante.com

Conclusions The report is replete with facts and observations suggesting that Canada is in a dire economic situation that could rapidly deteriorate, with consequences being felt by every Canadian. Unfortunately it appears that they have failed to see the real destabilizing force behind all of the imbalances present in our system. It is the low interest rate environment, produced by the BoC itself that has led us to the precipice. While it is clear that those at the Bank have access to all of the necessary facts, they lack the understanding needed to prescribe real solutions to the problems and as a consequence they are likely to persist for much longer than they need to.
Furthermore, the report confirms my fear that in the face of a real downturn the BoC will not be able to resist the urge to intervene and will only wind up compounding the damage that has already been done. The BoC continues to view itself as a benevolent planner rather than acknowledge its own role as source of risk. They will continue to interpret events in their own favor and use them to justify further intervention in the market, which is just throwing gasoline on the fire.



Pentagon Drones Flying Domestic; Declaring War on Your Privacy?

In 2002 the Pentagon owned 50 unmanned predator drones, but today the number has ballooned to over 7,000. Additionally the Pentagon has asked Congress for an extra $5 billion to expand the drone program. Although the Pentagon’s primary use for drones is war, they are using these weapons to spy on American citizens. Here is Marina Portnaya’s report.






Money Insider: US Will See Violent Civil Unrest In 2012

Armed, irritated and vocal majority will react to worsening economic decline
by Paul Joseph Watson, InfoWars.com:
Money insider Charles Ortel has warned that a worsening economic picture across the globe will see civil unrest hit the streets of America, not on behalf of leftist OWS types, but by an armed, “irascible and vocal Majority”.
Ortel, a managing partner with Newport Value Partners, LLC in New York City, predicts that a failure of the so-called financial recovery will precipitate “A painful re-calibration of economic strength and geo-political standing during 2012 in the midst of widespread civil insurrection and cross-border war.”
Noting that Americans’ access to firearms will cause such riots to be bloodier than anything seen in Europe, Ortel predicts that a contented and silent Majority will be turned into “an irascible and vocal Majority,” as a result of numerous macro-economic and geo-political threats facing the country, including the collapse of the euro, the bursting of the financial bubble in China, and the looming debt crisis, all of which will contribute to weak economic growth.
Read More @ InfoWars.com




BBC Admits Anglosphere Destabilized Libya

from The Daily Bell:

Inside story of the UK’s secret mission to beat Gaddafi … British efforts to help topple Colonel Gaddafi were not limited to air strikes. On the ground − and on the quiet − special forces soldiers were blending in with rebel fighters. This is the previously untold account of the crucial part they played. The British campaign to overthrow Muammar Gaddafi’s regime had its public face − with aircraft dropping bombs, or Royal Navy ships appearing in Libyan waters, but it also had a secret aspect … In the end, though, British special forces were deployed on the ground in order to help the UK’s allies − the Libyan revolutionaries often called the National Transitional Council or NTC. Those with a knowledge of the programme insist “they did a tremendous job” and contributed to the final collapse of the Gaddafi regime.. – BBC Newsnight
Dominant Social Theme: Well … we Brits did play a role in destabilizing Gaddafi, after all. We’re admitting it now because success has many fathers, and we want to make sure we’re one of them. We can’t run an economy or sustain a world empire but we sure as heck can kill people, even top people, if we want to destabilize their regimes. Word up, eh!
Free-Market Analysis: And thus the Brits crow … again. Or to put it more precisely, the Anglosphere power elite that is apparently behind much of this weary world’s destruction and bloodshed.
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com





Market Meltdown Warning: Institutional Investors Are Offloading Stocks to Retail Buyers (That’s Us)

by Mac Slavo, SHTFPlan.com:
As the Dow Jones appoaches 13,000 and continues to break through multi-year highs, reports over the last several months suggest that the smart money, including major trading houses and hedge funds, is heading for the exits. The latest report comes to us from none other than government bailout darling Goldman Sachs:
Earlier today we got our first clue that the smart money has stopped “distribution” and is now offloading to retail after we saw the first equity fund inflow, however tiny, in months, and only the second one out of 37 outflows since April, as reported by ICI. The second and far more important one comes from today’s Goldman sales roundup, which confirmed that following today’s latest borderline ridiculous meltup, retail investors looking for the sucker at the poker table, wouldn’t be able to find one. Here’s why. Quote Goldman: “As has been the recent trend, our cash flow remains better to sell, both from long-only and hedge funds.” And there you have it: smart money (well, relatively so) has “recently” been using every melt up chance it gets to dump the bags with the E*Trade baby. Third and final proof: “ETF flow however skewed toward better buying.” At this point retail investors may want to ask themselves: what do they know that the others, who are actively selling to them, don’t.
Read More @ SHTFPlan.com




Neocon Bill Kristol Challenges Ron Paul to a Debate?




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