Saturday, January 14, 2012

Der Verkauf Ist Verboten - Germany Considers Ban On Sovereign Bond Sales

When back in August, Europe declared a short selling ban of any financials (here we are willing to channel Romney, and make a $10,000 bet with anyone that said ban will never be lifted), and which as we predicted has had no favorable impact on bank stocks which have since tumbled, we suggested that the next step will also be the final one: the passage of laws prohibiting sales of any kind. As usual we were partially joking. And as so often happens, we are about to be proven right again. As the FT reports in its headline article today, whose gist is simple enough, that Europe is on the verge, it is the tactically-placed final paragraph that is of particular curiosity. It says the following: "Speaking on the fringes of a start-of-year retreat of her Christian Union lawmakers in the city of Kiel, Ms Merkel said she would consider calls from her party colleagues for legislation to bar institutional investors such as insurance companies from selling bonds when ratings were downgraded, or fell below investment grade." Allow us to recopy and repaste the key part: "legislation to bar institutional investors such as insurance companies from selling bonds.




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Q4 Spanish Unemployment Soars By Most Since Lehman, Hits "Astronomical" 23.3%


For anyone convinced that yesterday's S&P two notch downgrade of Spain to A is the last one for a while, we have some bad news: in Q4 Spanish unemployment soared by the most since the Lehman collapse, hitting what new PM Mariano Rajoy called an "astronomical" 5.4 million. This compares to 4.978 million people unemployed at the end of Q3 2011. Since the official number is not yet public and will be released on January 27 we will take his word for it. In which case it becomes clear that in Q4 the Spanish economy experienced a Lehman-like collapse, losing more than 400K people, or the most since the bankruptcy of Lehman brothers. In percentage terms this means that Spanish unemployment rose by a ridiculous 2%, or from 21.5% to 23.3%, in one quarter! And since Spain is a country of the Keynesian persuasion, we can only assume the number includes a whole bunch of meaningless birth/death and seasonal adjustments, but we'll leave it at that. Incidentally, it means that by the time the mean reversion exercise, with cost-cutting and what not is complete, Spanish unemployment will be well north of 30%, and 2 out of 3 people aged between 16 and 25 will be out of a job, if ot more. It also begs the question just what the real unemployment picture in the US, which lately has put the Chinese Department of Truth to shame, would be if reported on a realistic, unadjusted, and not "workforce contracted" basis. The chart below shows you everything you need to know.




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Ineptocracy: a definition

noreply@blogger.com (Patrice Lewis) at Rural Revolution - 14 minutes ago
A reader sent this. _______________________________ It’s good to know that there is a definition for the current state of affairs. Ineptocracy (in-ep-toc’-ra-cy) - a system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of achieving, and where the members of society least likely to succeed or even to sustain themselves, are abundantly rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers. 

Greece

Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen: The bankers in their great wisdom, decided to delay by one day their raid on gold and silver.  On Thursday, the cartel saw the precious metals rise on a "great" auction in Europe. The rise provided extra juice for the bankers on Friday and they did not disappoint. Gold fell by $17.30 down to $1630.40.  Silver was hit for a loss of 36 cents to $29.75. Bourses



The Risks Of Money Printing

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 6 hours ago
If you print money like in Zimbabwe... the purchasing power of money goes down, and the standards of living go down, and eventually, you have a civil war. - *famous quote, in Brainy Quote* *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.* 

Watch out for 2013

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 7 hours ago
They have postponed Armageddon (...) We discussed before here that 2013 and 2014 are what I am most worried about because this year everybody is trying to just get through the next election. There are 40 elections in 2012. Everybody is going to do their best to get us through the election. Watch out for 2013. (source: Economic Times) *Related, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM) * *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street J... more » 


 

Trader Dan on King World News Weekly Metals Wrap

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 13 hours ago

Please click on the following link to listen in to my regular weekly radio interview with Eric King on the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap. *http://tinyurl.com/7hqzg97*




Jamie Dimon Says JPM Could Lose Up To $5 Billion From PIIGS Exposure

In an interview with Italian newspaper Milan Finanza on Saturday, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that he could lose up to $5 billion from the firm's exposure to the PIIGS countries. As Reuters reports, "Dimon said the bank was exposed to the five countries (PIIGS) to the tune of around $15 billion. "We fear we could lose up to $5 billion ... We hope the worst won't happen, but even if it did happen, I wouldn't be pulling my hair out," he said. Dimon said Europe was the worst problem for the banking sector. "But the EU and euro are solid even if the states will have to be financially responsible and do all they can to develop common social policies," he said." While it is admirable of JPMorgan to disclose some of its dirty laundry, as this was a topic that received hardly any mention in the firm's prepared quarterly release, and is predicated surely by the fact that its Basel III Tier 1 Common of $122 billion dwarfs this possible impairment, there are some questions left open. Such as what happens if and when Greek CDS, now most likely before March 20, were triggered? And the logical follow up - what happens when Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy, and who knows who else (Hungary?) follow suit and decide that a coercive restructuring is actually not suicidal, even though it most certainly is once a given threshold is reached. In other words, how long can Europe tolerate the same two-tiered sovereign debt market that S&P warned about so explicitly yesterday? Finally what happens to JPM's Tier 1 Common when the European dominos impact not only the directly exposed PIIGS nations, and specifically their bonds, but all those other banks, insurance and reinsurance companies, whose current viability makes up the balance of JPM's remaining $117 billion in Tier 1? Because in its essence, stating that JPM is "fine" even if Europe were to collapse is analogous to Goldman telling Congress it would collect on its AIG CDS if and when the CDS market were to implode absent the government bailout of AIG, which itself was accountable for over $2 trillion of the entire CDS market itself.




Jesse Benton on FOX News 01/14/12




S & P Downgrades, Dollar, Debt, Trade the Fed


Triple Lutz Report – Casinos Don’t Create Wealth – Episode 149

from The Financial Survival Network:

Many States are scrambling to build new casinos. They mistakenly believe that this is a surefire prescription for more tax revenue and jobs. They’ve bought into the false Las Vegas Myth–that if you build it and it has a blackjack table, a roulette wheel and a craps table–they will come. However, Vegas is looking more and more like Detroit, yet another failed US city. Do politicians believe that encouraging and subsidizing these parasitic industries is going to build wealth? As libertarians we are not against citizens starting and running gambling enterprises. They’ve been doing it since the before the Babylonians and they’re going to be doing long after we’re gone.
What we object to is the unholy alliance of government and big gambling. It is corrupt and it does not serve the public. Selling mega-casinos as a panacea for economic growth is completely fraudulent. The overall wealth of a society that engages in governmental sponsored gambling enterprises actually goes down. While there is an increase in taxe revenues, there’s also a resulting decrease in consumer spending and an increase in social costs, which are never factored into the rigged gambling equation.
While on occasion we have unsuccessfully tested our luck at the tables, we all know that gambling is a vice that can destroy families, increase crime and harm society. Therefore, the government should stay out of it, whether it’s running lotteries, booking sports/horse bets or embracing casinos as a fiscal cure all.
Click Here to Listen to the Interview



International Forecaster January 2012 (#4)

by Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster via GoldSeek.com:
Europe continues to predominate the news. At a Monday meeting French President Nicolas Sarkozy won the backing of German Chancellor Angela Merkel on a tax on financial transactions. Britain says it won’t work unless it is applied worldwide. Britain is correct, but is the UK begging the point. Could Britain have wanted the tax from the beginning, as long as it was global? Of course they would, it is a method of taxing investors, for governments along with the IMF, UN and World Bank, which is what these people have been up to for years. We believe a game is being played here to tax financial transactions to fund anything the elitists’ want. We question the geniusness of England as an honest player.
Mrs. Merkel says she is in favor of such a tax. We ask, are not European taxes high enough already? Tax rates or a net basis already exceed 70%. Such a tax is to be presented in February and should cause Mr. Sarkozy’s reelection chance to falter somewhat. The $100 plus billion tax will decrease economic activity, reduce revenue from other taxes and act as a form of austerity on the economies. The wrong tax at the wrong time. Even the French Banking Federation says such a tax would weight on growth, lead to lack of competitiveness and create a heavy handicap for the financing of the French economy.
Read More @ GoldSeek.com





Any Conflict on Iran Is a Direct Threat to Russia’s Security – Rogozin

from RT.com:

The escalating conflict around Iran should be contained by common effort, otherwise the promising Arab Spring will grow into a “scorching Arab Summer,” says Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s former envoy to NATO.
­“Iran is our close neighbor, just south of the Caucasus. Should anything happen to Iran, should Iran get drawn into any political or military hardships, this will be a direct threat to our national security,” stressed Rogozin.
Dmitry Rogozin, who served as Russia’s special envoy to NATO in 2008-2011, was appointed deputy prime minister by Vladimir Putin in December. On Friday he was bidding farewell to his NATO colleagues in the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels.
As for Syria, if NATO persists in interfering in its affairs, a catastrophe will be hard to avoid, said Rogozin, talking to journalists on the premises of the Russian mission to the alliance.
Read More @ RT.com




Listen Up, Class: Here’s How to Profit

The Barron’s Roundtable sees trouble in Europe, but bargains in the U.S. and emerging markets. Marc Faber and Oscar Schafer share their 2012 investment picks.
by Lauren R. Rublin, Barrons.com:
Inflation. Deflation. Rehypothecation. Bad rap lyrics, or the poetry of finance? You can judge for yourself when you finish this first installment of Barron’s 2012 Roundtable, a verbal free-for-all that features high-falutin’ words, scary predictions and, yes, some sound advice on how to prosper in the year ahead.
After a year of political turmoil in the U.S. and debt-fueled chaos in Europe, it’s no wonder the 10 investment experts whom Barron’s assembled last Monday at the Harvard Club of New York were eager to dissect the big picture: how the U.S. should gets its house in order (the Senate, too), whether Greece will get booted from the euro, why central bankers might print money until the world’s ink supply runs dry, and, not least, when World War III will erupt (sooner than you think). To a one, these leading lights of Wall Street agreed that the world is a lot more dangerous than it was 10 or 20 or 30 years ago, when investors worried more about return on their capital than return of it.
Read More @ Barrons.com




Truth About Middle East is Spreading

by Anthony Wile, The Daily Bell:

Zero Hedge has published an article, “Are The Middle East Wars Really About Forcing the World Into Dollars and Private Central Banking?” that mentions my theory that Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown because he wanted to set up a private gold-currency in Africa. You can see my article here: Gaddafi Planned Gold Dinar, Now Under Attack.
I don’t want to give the idea, however, that Western powers-that-be were galvanized into action ONLY because of Gaddafi’s gold currency idea. Here at DB, we regularly discuss a wide range of strategic plans that the elites seem to be putting into place in order to advance what is commonly known as a New World Order. In this article, I want to touch on some of these again.
Certainly, Gaddafi’s idea probably provoked anger in the halls of Western power. As I wrote previously, the idea, according to Gaddafi, was that African and Muslim nations would join together to create this new currency and would use it to purchase oil and other resources in exclusion of the dollar and other currencies.
I was interviewed by the news service RT, and they called it “an idea that would shift the economic balance of the world.” You can see my interview here: Real Cause for Gaddafi’s Expulsion: Wanted Gold Currency?
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com




The End of Europe?

by John Mauldin, GoldSeek.com:
One of the interesting things about being in Hong Kong is that I get to see the weekend edition of the Financial Times 12 hours early. And the headlines were not all that pleasant. As I promised last week, we will cast our eyes to Europe and ponder what is in store for Europe for the year and the next five years. And what do we read on page 2? The “ECB raps revisions to draft a fiscal pact.” Seems they feel there are too many loopholes, which will make the document meaningless … somewhat like the treaty they have now. And we further learn that “Greek default threat grows as talks falter.” Seems there is a lack of agreement on how much of a haircut the investors ought to take, and the Greeks don’t want to guarantee any future debt, just in case they need to default some more in the future. But they do want the €15 billion they need to keep the debt machine running for a few more months.
Read More @ GoldSeek.com





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