Hilsenrath: Fed's Kohn Says Will Give "Very Serious Consideration" To QE3

As always happens, about a week after Goldman telegraphs the need for QE3, which they did last Friday, the WSJ's Fed mouthpiece Jon Hilsenrath reaches out to the media and proceeds to give the secret QE handshake. Now in its third iteration. In an "exclusive" interview with the Fed's last tree monetary affairs committee, Donald Kohn, Vince Reinhart and Brian Matigan, Hilsenrath observes that according to these masters of the universe the chance of another recession is 20-40%, which we are confident is a given at 100%, but more importantly, he quotes Don Kohn who "said the Fed still has some options to support the economy, but "they're kind of limited." He said he expects the central bank, which holds a policy meeting Aug. 9, to wait and see whether the recovery is really losing steam before taking any action. If that's the case--and inflation is coming down--then he would give "very serious consideration" to a new round of bond purchases, he said." Well, the 30 Year is at 2011 lows, TIPS are screeching, and stocks are plunging: all indications that the market anticipates deflation. Looks like the only wildcard is whether the FOMC will determine next Tuesday that the economy has slowed down. Which it has. We believe the August 9 statement will be very interesting to most, and will result in some quite serious market volatility, as ever more are pricing in hints of an imminent resumption of LSAP or, in the least, Operation Twist with the confirmation likely to come at this year's Jackson Hole meeting, as we predicted back in April.

Confidential Wal-Mart Memo Discloses Substantial Drop In Store Traffic Compared To Year Ago

As if we needed another confirmation that the US consumer is running on empty, here comes Bloomberg with valuable disclosure from an internal, and supposedly confidential, Wal-Mart memo on store traffic patterns which indicate that in US store locations open for at least a year have seen a 2.6% drop in traffic in the February to June period compared to a year earlier. While this may not sound huge, keep in mind the company is massively leveraged to even the smallest marginal moves in traffic, courtesy of already razor thin margins. Specificall, the Wal-Mart stores in question had "82.8 million fewer visits through the first five months of the company’s fiscal year." More than anything this is an indication of just how exhausted the US consumer is becoming if even the most beloved, widespread and cheapest option for purchases is now being shunned outright. Bloomberg continues: "Wal-Mart’s plan to recapture customers by returning thousands of products to U.S. store shelves has failed to reverse a decline in foot traffic at the world’s largest retailer, said Jeff Stinson, an analyst at Cleveland Research Co. That’s primarily because Wal-Mart’s core low-income customers are shopping less and going to other retailers more often, according to two recent shopper surveys." This should not come as a surprise to anyone, since frequent Zero Hedge readers will recall the post in which the CEO of Wal Mart America said that "shoppers are running out of money"; and there is no sign of a recovery." When it comes to marginal traffic, it appears shoppers have just run out of money. And that includes those who no longer pay their mortgage and pay for everything with their now well maxed out credit cards.

Volume Surges, 63% Above Average, On Way To Hit 1 Year High, 3 Days Away From All Time Longest Consecutive Down Day Record

For all those lamenting the disappearance of stock trading volume in 2011, that would be Goldman Sachs first and foremost if only one of the stocks sold off the most wasn't GS, today you get a reprieve. In anticipation of a 9-th consecutive down day, which will be the longest losing streak since 1978, composite trading volume through 1:00 pm is about 63% above the 30 day moving average, and 30% higher through this time yesterday. Run-rating today's volume over the remaining three hours of trading would imply a whopping 12 billion shares, which would be the highest since June 25, 2010, when 13.9 billion shares traded (the catalyst being the Congressional watering down of the financial reform bill; this time the catalyst is the ending of the Ponzi). Incidentally, the longest losing streak in US markets history is 12 days, recorded in both 1941 and 1968. This means we are just three more days of Eurocontagion from making history.

U.S. Economy Running at ‘Stall Speed’

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago

How many readers recall the vast array of headlines and talking head analysis intended to convince the investment world that another installment of QE wasn't necessary? I’d say unless you’re related to Dory from Finding Nemo (2003) it should be everyone. It’s not denoted QE(n) because I have a thing for subscripts. Headline: U.S. Economy Running at ‘Stall Speed’ Pacific Investment Management... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 

 

 

 

 

 

YOU DECIDE: Will Obama Be Able to Create Jobs Now?

We The Stupid.

 

 

 

 

That Which Is Too Fearful To Speak: The Demise of the Consumer Economy

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