One can kneejerk every headline coming out of Europe, or one can buy gold, which has finally had enough with this endless BS and has realized that no matter what the ECB will have to print, followed by everyone else.
Follow the latest developments in Greece live from Sky News which is providing the best live coverage for the time being.
One of the consequences of MF Global and the whole PSI in Europe is that investors are less trusting about what "net" is. The "gross" positions are about 2.6 billion. That is across Europe. If they are long and short all sorts of German and French government bonds in their role as market market, that wouldn't be much of a concern. If that is the bulk of the gross position, then the market has clearly over-reacted. I would like to see gross and net by instrument. So bonds as one line item. CDS as another. Futures as another. I would like to see gross and net on a notional basis, and DV01 basis. It would also be helpful to know a jump to default number. I would want sovereign exposure and European bank exposure. Basically I would want the data that I would have on my own positions.
Welcome To The Deja Vu Circle Of Hell: Greek Referendum Has Been Scrapped (This Time Maybe For Real)This time from AP:
- GREECE BAILOUT REFERENDUM HAS BEEN SCRAPPED
- Officials close to Greek prime minister tell Associated Press bailout referendum has been scrapped
Seriously - No more... Please... We give up.
Jefferies, which two days ago denied, denied, denied, has been forced to release another statement, 48 short hours later. As usual, the excuse used is the "Net exposure" is just $38 million compared to gross of $2.7 billion, a generic claim which was summarily debunked in our previous post.
Bloomberg's consumer comfort index once again confirms what so many know, despite the day to day 3-4% swings in equity markets, that broad-based sentiment is desperately weak. Retail metrics also confirmed retail sales starting to disappoint - as perhaps burning through savings is starting to reach its tipping point - and so perhaps all those charts we have been so vociferous about pointing to the disconnect between spending/growth and sentiment will converge sooner than many suspect. Specifically the State of the Economy index is only fractionally above its record lows from Feb09 - about as bad as it can get!!
UPDATE 3: JEF halted again
UPDATE 2: JEF resumes trading, dead cat bounce
UPDATE: -20% now, halted
Presented without comment suffice to say that while everyone is focusing on Europe, the US may be about to have its second failed Primary Dealer in a week (and to note the cockroach reference from yesterday):
Want to listen in on how Goldman's ex-employee MFs all of Europe? Here is your chance as Super Mario conducts his first ever press conference as head of the most undercapitalized central bank in the history of the world, better known as Goldman-am-Main.
The ECB cutting rates to preserve zee price stabeeleetee? Sure, great idea. What about the one and only actual mandate: inflation. Well, here is what it looks like in Italy. Thank god it is under control. In other news, the ECB is now on collision course with reality and Germany, having used up its last remaining bullet.
At this moment, the headlines coming out of Greece are confusing and contradictory. It isn't clear whether or not there will be a referendum or a vote of no confidence. There may be a new leader, there may not be. All we can do is wait for the next headline. In the end I think there will be a referendum. You can't put the genie back in the bottle. If a referendum is cancelled now, how will the people of Greece react? Maybe the No Eurozone plan won't be so compelling, but if people start taking a serious look at how it would work, it might not be so bad, and don't forget, the Eurozone plan isn't that great. At some point, the citizens of the country need to make the decisions. Electing politicians that can then be corrupted by Merkozy is not a long term solution.
The former Goldman banker cutting rates two days after his appointment? Stunning. Next up, we get to listen to an Italian accent instead of a French one for the first time in a decade, at the press conference to be held shortly. The EUR reaction is appropriate: completely schizophrenic.