It's A Tradition... It's A Religion...It's A Barbarous Relic... It's $1,650

This the intraday chart of spot gold. Whether the surge is due to JPMorgan's outlook on 2012 GDP, to Fitch saying it does not rule out revising the US outlook to negative by the end of August, or to Gross finally admitting QE3 is possible, is irrelevant. Our work here is done.






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JP Morgan: "Fiscal Policy Will Cut Our 2.7% 2012 GDP Forecast To Sub 1%"

Sorry Hatzius, you snooze you lose. Your position as the most anticipatory, if far-less than credible (courtesy of your horrible December 2010 call) econo-forecaster on Wall Street has just been relinquished to JPMorgan's Michael Feroli who has been eating your breakfast for the past two quarters. Feroli, who yesterday warned that NFP could come in well short of the firm's forecast 45,000 on Friday (to be followed by his colleague telling Bloomberg TV a negative print is quite possible), has just fired the first shot not at merely 2011 GDP, but 2012. As a reminder, Jamie Dimon's firm had previously expected a 2.7% rate of economic growth next year. Well, it may be time to cut that to sub-1%! Quote Feroli: "All in all, by our estimates federal fiscal policy will subtract around 1-3/4%-points from GDP growth next year. Given that GDP growth has been 1.6% over the past four quarters when fiscal policy has been much less of a drag, this doesn't bode well for next year. There are elements of uncertainty in our 1-3/4%-point drag estimate, and the largest such uncertainty is probably political, as some measure could get extended. Respecting that uncertainty, it does appear that fiscal policy poses a downside challenge to our projection for 2.7% GDP growth in 2012." That's right: Jamie Dimon is right now on the phone with Bernanke screaming at the bald Princeton historian that his chief economist anticipates sub 1% GDP in 2012 unless the Fed starts printing. And printing it shall start. Remember: FOMC - August 9. Set your calendars.

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