Friday, April 27, 2012

Gold Will Win Money War

By Greg hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Dear CIGAs,

It was recently reported that countries like China and India are going to buy Iranian oil with gold.  Jim Sinclair of JSMineset.com said this week, “The implications of China paying for Iranian oil in gold is the most important event in the modern history of gold.”  He also said that gold could go to “$3,000 per ounce” as nations around the world revert back to gold as the only form of payment “free of liability.” (Click here to read Jim’s complete post.)There is nothing short of an epic battle quietly going on between real money (gold) and paper money (the U.S. dollar).  In the end, the real thing will win out.  Today, Jim Willie of GoldenJackass.com explores the battle lines and explains the global money war.  Please enjoy.

———————————————————–

US Dollar VS Gold: Epic Money Battle
By: Jim Willie, Guest Writer for USAWatchdog.com

The so-called Global Financial Crisis is a term so widely used that it has earned its own acronym of GFC. When first seen, it seemed like girl friend club or some such, since many friends use GF loosely to refer to sweethearts. The GFC is falsely named, since it is more accurately described as a global monetary war with the US Govt vigorously defending its franchise in the US Dollar for crude oil and trade settlement, and for bank reserves management. Take either away, and the other departs quickly, leaving the United States vulnerable to a quick ticket to the Third World marred by price inflation and supply shortage, even isolation in ring fences. On its own devices, the US is in as bad shape as the worst of the PIGS nations. The US Govt debt is above 100% of GDP finally. The annual deficit of $1.5 trillion could not be financed in normal methods. So the US Fed is the adopted buyer of last resort, purchasing over 80% of new and recycled US debt issuance. The Interest Rate Swap tool acts like a hydraulic howitzer, in pushing down the long-term interest rates by creating false artificial demand. Without the IRSwap contract, a Morgan Stanley specialty, the US interest rates would be 6% to 7% just like Spain and Italy. The US Treasury Bond is not a safe haven, but rather a place where Weimar printing press operations persist, where decisions like SWIFT code rules are enforced like a illicit weapon, where billboards are painted to attract embattled investors of impaired toxic sovereign bonds from Southern Europe to retreat to the supposed safe haven of US TBonds.
More…




Filed under were F***ed...

TRAITORS: CISPA Passes House in Unexpected Last-Minute Vote

[Ed. Note: THE CONSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES WAS LONG AGO OVERTHROWN, LET THERE BE NO DOUBT.]
from RT:

The House of Representatives has approved Cyber Intelligence Sharing and Protection Act with a vote count of 248-168. The bill is now headed for the Senate. President Barack Obama will be able to sign or cancel it pending Senate approval.

Initially slated to vote on the bill Friday, the House of Representatives decided to pass Cyber Intelligence Sharing and Protection Act (CISPA) Thursday after approving a number of amendments. The snap vote took place after Congressional legislators approved a number of amendments to the bill.
Apart from cyber and national security purposes, the bill would now allow the government to use private information obtained through CISPA for the investigation and prosecution of “cybersecurity crime,” protection of individuals and the protection of children. The new clauses define “cybersecurity crime” as any crime involving network disruption or hacking.
“Basically this means CISPA can no longer be called a cyber security bill at all. The government would be able to search information it collects under CISPA for the purposes of investigating American citizens with complete immunity from all privacy protections as long as they can claim someone committed a ‘cybersecurity crime.’ Basically it says the Fourth Amendment does not apply online, at all,” Techdirt’s Leigh Beadon said.
Read More @ RT.com





House Passes CISPA: Red Alert!

from Infowars:
So this is how freedom dies.
Ben Franklin warned that those who trade (cyber) liberties for (cyber) security will have neither. And yet, despite outspoken criticism and the founder’s wisdom, gross civil liberties have been again wagered for new government powers under the promise of ‘keeping us safe.’ That translates to more mass spying and the selective shutting down of online dissidents, all part of the overall clamp down of the free Internet. And apparently, Obama will again pose as an opponent by threatening to veto, like he did with NDAA, before signing it under cover of night.


Still think your vote counts...

A Spanish Company Known As Scytl Will Be Reporting Election Results For Hundreds Of U.S. Jurisdictions On Election Day

from The American Dream:
Do you know who is going to be counting the votes on Election Day 2012?  Most Americans never even think about this.  Most Americans just assume that their votes will count and that the government will ensure that the counting process is done honestly and fairly.  But is this really the case?  Sadly, the vast majority of people never take the time to “look behind the curtain” to see how things really work.  If they did, they might find themselves extremely upset about what they would find. 
It is absolutely amazing that a foreign company has been able to gain such control over the reporting of election results in the United States without it ever making a significant splash in the mainstream media.
You would think that there would be a law against this sort of thing, but apparently there is not.
Read More @ EndOfTheAmericanDream.com




Agenda 21 – It’s Your World, We Just Want To Own You. Part 1

by Redmond Weissenberger, Dollar Vigilante:

The first plank of the Communist Manifesto, written in 1844, calls for the Abolition of Private Property in Land.

  1. Abolition of property in land and application of all rents 
Throughout the 20th century, when socialism was ascendant across the entire world, the abolition of private property and the socialization of the means of production in the hands of the state was key to the transformation of society into the murderous dystopias that made up the eastern bloc.
They were the first nation to take the concept of “animal rights” seriously (in 1933 Goering – ah, the big cuddly softie – said that anyone found guilty of animal cruelty or experimentation would be sent to the concentration camps), the first to pass national environmental laws – the Reich Nature Protection Law of 1935, the first to champion organic food (an especial obsession of Heinrich Himmler), the first to promote vegetarianism (another of Hitler’s fads), and, above all, the first to address with proper planning and mechanised efficiency the issue that tends to concern ecominded catastrophists more than any other: what to do about the world’s population “problem.”
According to the National Socialists, the German Volk required Lebensraum, in order to create the perfect eco-friendly, sustainable world.
Read More @ DollarVigilante.com


 

Bill Gross On Europe's Dysfunction And US Double-Dips

PIMCO's Bill Gross spent a longer-than-soundbite period discussing QE3, the chance of a US double-dip, and Europe's ongoing dysfunction with Trish Regan on Bloomberg Television this afternoon. Given more than his typically limited-to-ten-second thoughts some other media outlets appear to prefer, the old-new-normal-bond-king believes the Fed will resist another round of quantitative easing in the short-term but "if unemployment begins to rise for two-to-three months then QE3 is back on". Noting that investors should focus on nominal GDP growth tomorrow, he goes on to dismiss the idea that the US can decouple from a troubled Europe pointing the political dysfunction between the Germans and the rest as greater than the polarity between Democrats and Republicans here at home. Preferring to play a slightly levered long bet on low rates holding for a longer-period, he like MBS (as we have discussed in the past) but does not see the 10Y yield dropping precipitously from here though he does echo our thoughts entirely in his view of the 'flow' being more critical than the 'stock' when it comes to the Fed's balance sheet and hence the June end-of-Twist may be a volatile period for all asset classes.

 


 Jim Grant On The Monetary Priesthood's "Atlas Complex"

The bow-tie-and-bespectacled Jim Grant once again takes the centrally-planned 'Office of Unintended Consequence' (aka The Fed) to task in a thoughtful exchange with Capital Account's Lauren Lyster. Reflecting on his recent opportunity to speak directly to various Fed officials, he found one particular question (on the perceived 'mass starvation' that occurred in the brutal earlier Depression beginning in 1920 which ended rapidly without the need for monetary stimulation) most disturbing in its summation of the central bank's 'Atlas Complex' - or how would we get up and go to work in the morning without them. The attitude of our Monetary Priesthood, he analogizes, is that unless they are active in their prayers and devotions, who knows what might happen? Grant goes on to discuss the hypocrisy of Bernanke (noting the importance of free market prices to his students and yet controlling interest rates overtly in the market-place) and highlights interest rates role as the traffic light signal in a market economy providing a critical input to our perception of value in stocks, bonds, real estate, Silicon Valley Startups, and so on and because these rates are manipulated we live and invest in a hall-of-mirrors leaving us with a distorted vision of the real-world. He notes that Americans, as typically recklessly joyous investors in growth, "remain in a miasma of anxiety due to the extreme unpredictability of policy action and this is what creates the tail risk of doubt and apprehension." Looking to the future he sees the constitutionality of Obamacare and the elections as a critical test in the war against supply and demand that is being waged by our central bankers and government.

 

Memo To Draghi: We, The People, "Don't Trust You One Inch"

It was early February when we called out Mario Draghi for his blatant lies regarding the stigmatizing effect that the LTRO program would have on European banks. Now, two months later, even the members of the European Parliament are openly questioning their belief in the sociopath ECB chief. After laying out the apparent reasons for the LTRO scheme (at a recent European Parliament hearing) to keep banks well-funded, Godfrey Bloom (MEP) describes the implicit reason - or so-called reach-around (sic.) Sarkozy-carry trade to fund governments circumventing Maastricht and article 104 of the ECB's Treaty - explaining the simple math means surely LTRO3 is inevitable and soon; as Spain (and Italy tomorrow remember) hits the wall with its issuance as banks are unable to serve their masters. Seeing right through this plan, the Yorkshire-man sums up his feelings towards mad-Mario right in line with our own: "I don't trust you one inch!" noting that Draghi's comments on 'buying time' means hours or days not months.





BoJ Eases. Einstein Rolls Over In Grave

"It won't be long before CPI is back above 1%", we promise, this time - we really mean it - is seemingly how the BoJ defends its decision to follow Einstein's definition of insanity  by doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different outcome (Nov 2008 was the last time CPI was above 1% YoY). Admittedly, at some point the ever-increasing BoJ balance-sheet-to-GDP will become too much even for a nation hell-bent on printing its way out of chronic deflation only to be punched-and-kicked by a balance-sheet-recession so deep and full of deleveragers. The facts are that the BoJ will expand its LSAP-equivalent program by JPY10tn (USD123bn) - raising the 'stock' - but maintaining the same pace of JGB-buying at JPY1.8tn per month - leaving the 'flow' stable - hence extending the program by around six months. At the same time they have extended the maturity of JGB purchases from 2Y to 3Y (try and wring a little more duration out of an already starved yield curve). USDJPY was entirely confused out of the gate and rallied immediately only to about-face and sell-off up to 81.45 before already giving back half of its losses to pre-BoJ anouncement. The JPY sell-off implicit carry moves did nothing to move US equity futures (which limped up 1-2pts and then gave it back) and even the NKY has retraced 65% of its post-BoJ gains. Perhaps it is all about the flow and the need for that second derivative to be constantly rising after all? Whether it is repatriation flows or carry-unwinds, JPY devaluation (as we have discussed Andy Xie's perspective on) may just have to be done 'forcefully' as opposed to 'suggestively'.





Italian 10 yr bonds,Spanish 10 yr bond yields rise/confidence in Europe/USA fall/Deutsche Bank poor results/Big Miss on Jobless numbers in USA

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: Gold closed up by $18.20 to finish the comex session at $1659.60  Silver ended the day up 85 cents to $31.25. Today we witnessed European confidence numbers slump to Jan 2009 levels.  We saw Deutsche Bank deliver poorer results that expected and they placed blame on the continuing deteriorating conditions within the EU.  Italian and Spanish bonds both rose in


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Shove This Up Your Ass, Warren...

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 12 hours ago
*Reuters’ McGeever acknowledges how the “gold market is tiny” compared to “trillions and trillions of dollars worth of cash and assets sloshing around the world financial system.” He asks how can countries back “all of that” against such a “tiny and finite amount of gold?” Butler responds by saying that “the amount of gold is finite by weight or volume, it is not finite by price* - article linked below I will get to the article which is the source of the above quote below. But first I wanted to link a speech given to the NY Fed by a guy named Robert Wenzel, who authors the Eco... more »

 

 

Tension Rising at the Fed Accompanied By Deaf Ears

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 13 hours ago
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Gold seeing some strength

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 13 hours ago
Gold appears to be catching some decent buying in today's session - buying that has been strong enough to take it out of the range within it has been trading for approximately the last ten days or so. Note the resistance levels shown on the chart and you can see the progress. It still has a big hurdle to clear if it is going to get any fireworks going and that hurdle remains the same as it has been for some time now, namely the region up near $1680. It seems that Central Bank buying below the market has shored up support on the chart. One gets the impression that the gold market si... more » 

Social Security Has A Real Problem

The Social Security Administration made an alarming announcement recently that they will exhaust their funding capability by 2033 which was several years earlier than originally projected. As millions of baby boomers approach retirement more strain is put on the fabric of the Social Security system.  The exact timing of this crunch is less important than its inevitability.  The problem that Social Security has is "real" employment.  I say "real" employment simply to sidestep the ongoing arguments about the validity of government employment survey's from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Federal Government receives income from the Social Security "contribution" from employee's paychecks. Social security "contributions" have decreased sharply by almost $70 billion from its peak. This is due to two factors.  The first is that the number of "real" employees, while growing, is in lower income producing and temporary jobs. The second factor is that a larger share of personal incomes is made up of government benefits which does not affect social security contributions. The entire social support framework faces an inevitable conclusion and no amount of wishful thinking will change that. 




S&P Cuts Spain to BBB+, Outlook Negative

UPDATE: *S&P TO ASSESS EFFECTS OF SPAIN DOWNGRADE ON SPANISH ISSUERS
Adding insult to Bayern Munich injury, we just got S&P which did the impossible and cut Spain to BBB+ from A (outlook negative) not on Friday after hours. Kneejerk reaction is a 30 pip drop in EURUSD. Oh, and most amusing, those witches among men, Egan Jones, downgraded Spain from BBB to BBB-.... a week ago. Crush them, destroy them... How dare they be ahead of the pack as usual: after all their NRSRO application was missing a god damn comma.




Amazon Surges After Hours On After-Tax Accounting Gimmick, Cash Burn, Collapsing Margins, And Negative Guidance


Either the algos are getting really stupid, or nobody cares at all about the quality of earnings any more. Case in point - Amazon, which was expected to post revenues and EPS of $12.9 billion and $0.07 came up with a revenue of $13.18 billion, hardly breathtaking if this came entirely at the expense of margins as has been the case in the past year, yet the one item that is sending the stock surging after hours on yet another short covering squeeze in which people cover first and ask questions later, was the EPS which came at $0.28. Amazing. Only problem is that the EPS, which was $130 million equivalent, was based on $41 million in actual net income from continuing operations, or $0.09. Hardly the stuff sending stocks up 10% in after hours. What accounting for the balance? An after tax adjustment amounting to $89 million coming from Equity-method investment activity, or the oldest accounting trick in the book, which alone added $0.19 cents to the EPS number, or about 95% of the entire EPS beat. What is surely not driving the AH spurt is that company's guidance for Q2: "Net sales are expected to be between $11.9 billion and $13.3 billion, or to grow between 20% and 34% compared with second quarter 2011. Operating income (loss) is expected to be between $(260) million and $40 million, or between 229% decline and 80% decline compared with second quarter 2011." So... actual profit before after tax accounting gimmicks may be negative, but at least they will make up for it in volume, right? Or inverse cash: in Q1 the company burned $3 billion in cash, bringing its cash load down from $5.3 billion to $2.3 billion. One final thing that is not causing the10% spike after hours is the operating margin: the company made $192 million in income from operations on $13.2 billion in revenue, or 1.5% profit margin, compared to what was considered abysmal 3.2% last year.  




S&P 500 Closes At 1399.99

As if anyone needed another example of who is really running the show, the S&P 500 cash index (an index that tracks the weighted performance of 500 underlying and supposedly fundamentally idiosyncratic companies) closed at 1399.99 after breaching the almighty 1400 earlier in the afternoon. The Dow Industrials failed to close in the green for the month and Dow Transports notably diverged bearishly today as the afternoon's ramp-fest in equities - and notably nothing else - gave hope to hope-less. Between a weak/strong (you decide) jobless claims data, a dismal Kansas Fed (and Chicago NAI negative print) juxtaposed with what was 'supposedly' strong pending home sales (contracts not signings note), it seemed some early QE-hope spillover from Bernanke yesterday got us going (with gold outperforming) early on but as the US day-session began, stocks took off from their lows, stabilized into the European close, then re-accelerated - running stops to the early April non-farm-payroll print levels. Stocks reconnected with Gold's early run but this did not have the feel of a QE trade at all - the USD was flat all afternoon, volume was dismal, gold actually fell as stocks took off this afternoon, and Treasury yields rose and fell in a narrow range. In other words, there was not a concerted cross-asset class QE hope here -  this was all stocks on their own - as they disconnected from our cross-capital structure and broad risk asset models as the afternoon wore on. Notably SPY implied vol is very close to crossing below its 20-day realized vol for the first time in almost five-months as VIX tested under 16% but couldn't maintain it into the close. The USD was lower close-to-close with AUD strength and JPY weakness most obvious as the US day session began with EUR relatively stable. Treasuries broadly remain lower in yield on the week with 7Y outperforming and 30Y basically unch. Copper was the best performing commodity today followed by Silver (though Ag remains down on the week) but Gold and Oil also benefited from USD's leaking. Discretionary, Energy, and Financials sectors outperformed on the day in stocks (with Materials weak - another non-QE sign) but it was the equity market's standalone bullishness that suggests this was more technical than a hope- or fundamental-based regime shift.
 

 

 

What Would Fed Chairman Krugman Do?

As if our recent discussion of Austerity were not enough, Citi's Steve Englander invokes 'String theory' to open the door to multiple universes, and in one of them Paul Krugman is undoubtedly Fed Chairman. Start with the assumption that a Paul Krugman Fed would advocate strong fiscal and monetary measures and tolerate a significant run-up in inflation. The question is how the USD would respond in this world. The presumption is that the Krugman Fed would cooperate by financing the fiscal expansion, allowing government spending or (or in a very strange Republican Krugman parallel universe) tax cuts to have a real impact without affecting government debt, making a strong distinction between pumping liquidity into the banking system and directly into the real economy. In conventional terms,  this is Financial Repression 101, but inflation is desired, achieved and beneficial. As Krugman points out there is a cost to an extended period of long-term unemployment. The bottom line is that unless you make low inflation a canonical virtue, you have to compare the long-term losses from lower credibility (if they exist) against the long-term gains from moving to full employment quicker (if they exist).




Man Tries To Relinquish US Citizenship. Application Denied

I was approached recently by a member of our Sovereign Man community who filed the paperwork to relinquish US citizenship some time ago. Long story short, after an incomprehensibly long wait, the US government finally sent him a reply: Application DENIED. Absolutely shocking. That you even have to ‘apply’ to relinquish what you never signed up for is intellectually insulting. That you cannot do so freely, and immediately, is nothing short of totalitarian. It’s still an embryonic movement, though more and more US citizens are being driven to divorce their country. Last year nearly 1,600 people gave up US citizenship, up from 1,485 in 2010, 731 in 2009, and 226 in 2008. While some renunciants have philosophical misgivings about being American, most do it for tax reasons. There’s a growing number of expats who, despite living abroad for years, are still paying huge portions of their income to Uncle Sam.





Leeb: Spain Flirts With Disaster As Europe Ready To Blow Apart

from KingWorldNews:
On the heels of the S&P downgrade of Spanish debt, today King World News interviewed acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer of Leeb Capital Management.  Leeb told KWN that not only is Spain in trouble, but Europe is literally ready to blow apart.  Leeb also discussed gold and silver, but first, here is what Leeb had to say about the S&P downgrade of Spanish debt:  “It’s really one more sign that Europe is on a terrible track.  When you have 25% unemployment in Spain and a huge amount of economic distress in most of Europe, and you are telling people the solution is to spend less money and become more austere, it’s just simple logic that’s not going to work.”
Stephen Leeb continues @ KingWorldNews




Ben Bernanke’s Paper Dollar Embodies Systemic Risk

by Charles Kadlec, DailyReckoning.com:

04/25/12 The paper dollar is now the single most important source of systemic risk to the financial system, the world economy, and the security of the American people.
That is the lesson of the past 100 years that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did not teach during his four lectures at George Washington University’s Graduate School of Business. Instead, he celebrated the importance of the extraordinary powers he and his fellow governors have to manipulate interest rates and the value of the dollar in the name of economic growth and stability.
In so doing, he ignored completely that the ever growing need for heroic interventions by the Fed is itself being created by the paper dollar system he celebrates.
Read More @ DailyReckoning.com




CPM Group’s Jeff Christian Makes the Case for $359/oz Silver!

by Bix Weir, Road to Roota:
The latest release from the Banking Cabal’s more than bizarre egomaniacal mouthpiece, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group, inadvertently makes a rather strong case for $359/oz silver while trying to trash gold. I’m sure that it was not his intention to promote silver as his release was clearly designed to pour cold water on any hopes for gold to take off but true to form – he put his foot in his mouth again!
5 Billion Ounces of Gold… His main argument in this article is that there is an astounding amount of gold out there available for sale. He tries to back this up by showing us how his historical numbers are derived. This is the first time I’ve heard him tell the world where his historical gold numbers come from and I find it fascinating that the origins come from the 1960′s estimates commissioned by Harry Oppenheimer. Read More…




S&P Downgrades Spain from A to BBB+, Outlook Negative

from Silver Doctors:

Breaking from recent tradition of announcing major downgrades late on Friday evenings and on holidays, S&P has just downgraded Spain from A to BBB+, outlook negative. Look for the Spanish 10 year, hovering just below 6%, to blast through the critical point when Europe opens.


NEW YORK (Standard & Poor’s) April 26, 2012–Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services today said it lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the Kingdom of Spain to ‘BBB+’ from ‘A’. At the same time, we lowered the short-term sovereign credit rating to ‘A-2′ from ‘A-1′. The outlook on the long-term rating is negative.
Read More @ SilverDoctors.com




Taxpayers, Don’t Let Them Fail! Spanish Banking on Brink …

from The Daily Bell:
Spanish banks ‘vulnerable’ and may need public help, says IMF … Spain, already struggling to contain its public debts, may need to pump more taxpayer money into its ailing banks to clear away tens of billions of dollars in bad real estate loans, the International Monetary Fund reported on Wednesday. In an overview of the country’s financial system, the IMF said that despite extensive restructuring, Spain’s banking sector “remains vulnerable.” It needs more capital and a strategy for quickly clearing away the legacy of a collapsing property bubble. – The Economist
Dominant Social Theme: These bank problems need to be dealt with.
Free-Market Analysis: Once again the cry goes up to preserve the banking sector. Is this necessary? In a free-market economy such failing institutions would shut down of their own accord. But that’s not the way it works in the modern world.
This is too bad because propping up such entities only makes the larger economic distortion worse. And yet … in the modern world, financial institutions are increasingly “too big to fail.”
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com




Greyerz – Bankrupt Nations Desperate to Save Financial System

from KingWorldNews:
Today Egon von Greyerz told King World News that bankrupt nations are now printing money in a desperate effort to sustain the current global financial system. Egon von Greyerz is founder and managing partner at Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland. Von Greyerz also reiterated that tens of trillions of dollars still need to be printed. Here is what Greyerz had to say about the situation: “There is so much happening in the world now. We’ve had another package here, just under 400 billion euros (for the IMF). This is an absolute drop in the ocean. Spain needs many times that (amount). I’ve talked about trillions and maybe even tens of trillions (that need to be printed going forward).
Von Greyerz continues @ KingWorldNews




Euro-Area Economic Confidence Drops More Than Forecast

from Bloomberg :

Economic confidence in the euro region declined more than economists had forecast in April, as the region’s slump showed signs of deepening.
An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 17-nation euro area fell to 92.8 from a revised 94.5 in March, the European Commission in Brussels said today. Economists had forecast a drop to 94.2 from a previously reported 94.4, the median of 29 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed.
Read More @ Bloomberg.com




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