Videos From Indonesia Following 8.7 Earthquake
While
luckily not as powerful as last year's Japanese earthquake, which in
turn led to a catastrophic tsunami, this morning Indonesia has been
battered by a series of magnitude 8+ quakes and aftershocks in the Banda
Aceh and Sumatra regions of the country. Also unlike last year, the
nature of the quake made it less likely a tsunami was generated because
the earth moved horizontally, rather than vertically, and therefore had
not displaced large volumes of water, Bruce Presgrave of the United
States Geological Survey told the BBC. The geological map and update
from the USGS below summarizes all the action we have seen to date.Apple Is Now Larger Than...
The
Apple comparisons have come thick and fast but today's Bloomberg
Chart-of-the-day really highlights the macro fundamental weakness in
Europe and the micro-bubble in corporate America's shiny new toy.
Apple's market cap is larger than the combined market cap of companies
in Spain, Portugal, and Greece.Map Of The Dead: How To Survive The Zombie Apocalypse
On
a long enough timeline... the zombies will arise, and exhibit a sudden
craving for brain stew. So what is a person who will have survived the
great central bank collapse to do?Today’s Items:
Europe’s crippled economy has just now
received another blow. Iran has cut oil supply shipments to Spain after
stopping crude exports to Greece as part of its counter-sanctions.
Iran is also thinking about cutting off Germany and Italy as well. Crude
that would go to Spain, and other sanctioned EU nations will most
likely be diverted to India and China in exchange for physical gold.
When one thinks of good-ole days under
Carter, they tend to think of the Iran crisis, high gas prices, a bad
economy and high inflation. Well, the more things change, the more they
stay the same except this time it is bigger! Under Carter, gas prices
rose 103.77%. Today, they have risen at a rate of 103.79%. Yes, welcome
to those wonderful days of yesteryear folks.
Everyone is worried about a double-dip
recession; however, looking at the ISM Composite, we are actually
experiencing a triple-dip! In short, we are in a classic head and
shoulders pattern with the next major drop to come sooner than later.
In claiming we are in a bull market,
strategists are most likely referring to the stock market; however, they
fail to mention that liquidity, indirectly from the FED, is fueling the
paper stock market. Take that away and things fall apart. There are
even claims that the developing nations, adding stimulus efforts, will
come to our rescue.
Next…
19 Things That The Talking Heads On Television Are Being Strangely Silent About
http://endoftheamericandream.com
19 Things That The Talking Heads On Television Are Being Strangely Silent About
http://endoftheamericandream.com
Here are a few…
1. Fukushima and the how the nuclear disaster is far from over.
2. 500 Million Dollars To Help The IRS Implement Obamacare that could be struck down in a few months.
3. The Federal Reserve Monetizing U.S. Debt – The Federal Reserve will not monetize the Debt.
4. The increase in Global earthquakes and sinkholes.
1. Fukushima and the how the nuclear disaster is far from over.
2. 500 Million Dollars To Help The IRS Implement Obamacare that could be struck down in a few months.
3. The Federal Reserve Monetizing U.S. Debt – The Federal Reserve will not monetize the Debt.
4. The increase in Global earthquakes and sinkholes.
John Embry, says that there will be a
massive sell-off in the overbought stock market, inflation will
accelerate and stocks will wind up being a repository of savings, just
as they were in the Wiemar Republic. He goes on to say that when it
comes to gold, a lot of people, with deep pockets, have figured out what
is going on and are buying up physical gold. In terms of silver, once
we get through this agony, silver will explode to the upside; therefore,
keep stacking.
A Few Thoughts On Gold
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 1 hour ago
But the returns have been very good since 1999 and year over year I think
gold is still up 12 percent...
I think that gold is in a correction period and we had an intermediate peak
on September 6, 2011.
And I always advise don’t put all your money into gold because it doesn’t
have any cash flow. So you are really dependent on the price appreciation.
That is different from owning, say, equities that have a dividend yield of
5 percent, which I can find in Asia. - *in Bloomberg TV*
*Related, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)*
*Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny pred... more
There Has Been A Bubble In The Chinese Property Market Which Is Now Over
Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 4 hours ago
There has been a bubble in the Chinese property market which is now over.
The Chinese government has been trying to burst the bubble. I think the
government is doing the right thing to bring down the price of property. If
you do not pop bubbles, lots of people get badly hurt. The bigger the
bubble gets, the worse it is for everyone. - *in Editorial Equities*
*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful
international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New
York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The
Financial Times and is a... more »
The Sky Is Falling Indicator
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 4 hours ago
MOVB(E) is a proprietary, bounded momentum indicator adjusted by
volatility. A weekly reading of -75.71% was generated on the Amex's gold
and silver mining index (XAU) on October 24th 2008 at the height of
investor panic. Today's weekly reading of -62.71 represents the sixth
clustered reading below -60% since 2001. That's roughly one buy signal
every two years. Rare...
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content, and more! ]]
The Big Question Is...
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 4 hours ago
But the big question is, it just a correction or is it the beginning of a
more serious downturn? - CNBC TV-18
*Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*
Creative Economic Perspective Elicits Market Responses
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 4 hours ago
The invisible hand is very good at using creative economic perspective
(misdirection, misinformation, etc) to elicit market responses. Market
responses such as covering paper shorts into price weakness in the gold
market. The only way to challenge economic perspective is to attack it head
on. Could the economic recovery have been considered strong before Friday's
employment data? The...
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content, and more! ]]
Spanish 10 yr yields rise to 5.98%/Italian bank stocks halted down 8.5%/Ted Butler on the Ice Queen/
Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 16 hours ago
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: Gold closed up by $17.10 to $1659.50. Silver rose by 16 cents to $31.67. Today a raid was orchestrated by the bankers to suppress both metals as Europe and Asia were in the toilet with respect to their equities. In Spain we witnessed that the 10 yr long bond rose in yield to 5.98% which set the mood for Europe. The Dax closed down 2.49%, the Paris CAC
Import Prices Surge Most Since April 2011
Today's import price update from the BLS was another warning red flag of margin compression for local manufacturers, as import prices, across both fuel and nonfuel imports, soared by 1.3%, well above consensus of a 0.8% rise, compared to the revised February decline of -0.1%. There is likely much more pain in store as the 3.8% increase in fuel import prices in March was a fraction of the 9.7% and 7.6% recorded in March and April in 2011 when crude and gasoline were trading at current levels. In other words, foreign makers can still absorb costs domestically before passing it on to the US. We expect this will change quickly, and the April fuel import prices will soar far more than even in March. As for the bottom line that the Fed does track, nonfuel imports, it rose 0.5%, also the most since April 2011. By all appearances, this means that the market will have to seriously tumble for the Fed to proceed with more easing at this moment, although ease it will. It is only a matter of time: about $30 trillion in excess debt demand it, and $2 trillion in Treasury debt/year needs to be monetized somehow.
The Real Tax Rate Conundrum
Despite
the eloquence of our taxer-in-chief, the facts, as noted by Professor
Antony Davies in this clip, are that whether you raise or lower taxes
at the highest-marginal or average tax rate, the share of the GDP pie that government gets to take out of our pockets remains stubbornly flat at around 17-18%.
It seems growing the pie may be a more attractive approach than
raising taxes but then how would that play in an election year with
below trend growth and stagnant income.Stocks Stalled At Post-NFP VWAP As European Banks Resume Freefall
It
seems like we are back in coin-tossing mode as S&P futures are
trading in a very narrow range this morning at exactly the post-NFP
volume-weighted average price level. Perhaps the current sell-off in
European banks will bias that coin a little to the downside...Guest Post: What If Housing Is Done for a Generation?
A strong case can be made that the fundamental supports of the housing market-- demographics, employment, creditworthiness and income--will not recover for a generation. It can even be argued that housing has lost its status as the foundation of middle class wealth, not for a generation, but for the long term. Let's begin by noting that despite the many tax breaks lavished on housing--the mortgage interest deduction, etc.--there is nothing magical about housing as an asset. That is, its price responds in an open, transparent market to supply and demand and the cost of money and risk. There are a number of quantifiable inputs that feed into supply and demand--new housing starts, mortgage rates and income, to name three--but there are other less quantifiable inputs as well, notably the belief (or faith) that housing will return to being a "good investment," i.e. rising in price roughly 1% above the rate of inflation. If this faith erodes, then the other factors of demand face an insurmountable headwind, for the most fundamental support of housing is the belief that buying a house is the first step to securing middle class wealth.
The Danger Of HY ETFs
The fact that the High Yield ETFs are trading at a discount should be a big concern to anyone in the high yield market,
not just those who own the ETF. There is a real risk that this
discount can translate into arb activity which leads to further
declines. We are very concerned that the same index-arbitrage process
occurring in CDS markets can occur in the HY bond market and liquidity,
as bad as it is in a strong market, is far worse in a down market. As
of yet there is no sign that this is happening in a meaningful way,
but JNK has seen outflows for a few days and HYG saw outflows yesterday.NYSE March Cash, ETF Volumes Slide Nearly 30% Compared To Year Earlier
While equity trading last March trading was affected by the excess volatility arising from the Fukushima explosions a year earlier, and the Japan earthquake induced volatility in general, today's monthly volume update by the NYSE shows that no matter what the reason for the volume collapse, toplines for banks and traders will suffer, on both a Y/Y as well as sequential basis. Per the NYSE: "European and U.S. Cash ADV Down 13% and 24% Year-over-Year.... NYSE Euronext European cash products ADV of 1.6 million transactions in March 2012 decreased 12.7% compared to March 2011, but increased 0.5% compared to February 2012. NYSE Euronext U.S. cash products handled ADV in March 2012 decreased 23.6% to 1.8 billion shares compared to March 2011 and decreased 0.6% from February 2012." An even bigger year-over-year collapse took place in the one product which everyone thinks is taking the place of individual stock trading: the synthetic CDOs known as ETFs: "NYSE Euronext U.S. matched exchange-traded funds ADV (included in volumes for Tape B and Tape C) of 222 million shares in March 2012 decreased 29.3% compared to March 2011, but increased 4.1% compared to February 2012. In the first quarter of 2012, NYSE Euronext U.S. matched exchange-traded funds ADV of 221 million shares was 21.8% below prior year levels." The YoY collapse in trading volumes for derivatives was less compared to cash, but the sequential drop from February 2012 was even more pronounced: "NYSE Euronext global derivatives ADV in March 2012 of 8.1 million contracts decreased 11.5% compared to March 2011 and decreased 15.4% from February 2012 levels." We can only hope that banks have found some innovative ways of compensating for this collapse in overall market participation, such as traditional revenue pathways like underwriting and advisory fees, as well as lending and arbing the carry trade. Alas, as the following Bloomberg piece points out, this will hardly be the case, as Zero Hedge has warned previously.Guest Post: Dueling Economic Banjos Offer No Deliverance
Americans
have been listening to the mainstream financial media’s song and dance
for around four years now. Every year, the song tells a comforting
tale of good ol’ fashioned down home economic recovery with biscuits
and gravy. And, every year, more people are left to wonder where this
fantastic smorgasbord turnaround is taking place? Two blocks down?
The next city over? Or perhaps only the neighborhoods surrounding the
offices of CNN, MSNBC, and FOX? Certainly, it’s not spreading like
wildfire in our own neck of the woods…Many in the general public are at
the very least asking “where is the root of the recovery?” However,
what they should really be asking is “where is the trigger for
collapse?” Since 2007/2008, I and many other independent economic
analysts have outlined numerous possible fiscal weaknesses and warning
signs that could bring disaster if allowed to fully develop. What we
find to our dismay here in 2012, however, is not one or two of these
triggers coming to fruition, but nearly EVERY SINGLE conceivable
Achilles’ heel within the foundation of our system raw and ready to
snap at a moment’s notice. We are trapped on a river rapid leading to
multiple economic disasters, and the only thing left for any sincere
analyst to do is to carefully anticipate where the first hits will come
from. Four years seems like a long time for global banks and government
entities to subdue or postpone a financial breakdown, and an overly
optimistic person might suggest that there may never be a sharp downturn
in the markets. Couldn’t we simply roll with the tide forever, buoyed
by intermittent fiat injections, treasury swaps, and policy shifts?
The answer……is no.Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: April 11
As North America comes to market, there is a lot to digest. European equity markets are trading higher, with the FTSE MIB in particular outperforming after a volatile morning’s session, with bargain-hunting the active theme among investors. The first major risk event came and went with the Italian T-Bill auction. Participants were looking for a poor auction due to the ongoing Eurozone woes, and although bid/covers fell short and yields did increase, the auction was not as poorly received as many had feared. As such, Italian and Spanish 10-yr spreads have tightened with the German Bund, with the Spanish spread closing in on 400BPS, with talk of domestic buying in the periphery and profit-taking from the last few sessions adding to the tightening effect. A flashpoint of the day was the German Bund auction; results came in showing the auction to be technically uncovered, failing to sell the expected EUR 5bln. Analysts have pinned the poor auction on the Bund having record low yields providing a disincentive to buy the German security. Following the minutes after the auction, around 25,000 contracts went through on the Bund, spiking lower around 20ticks.Chinese Gold Imports From Hong Kong Rise Nearly 13 Fold – PBOC Likely Buying Dip Again
Chinese gold demand remains very strong as seen in the importation of 40 metric tonnes or nearly 40,000 kilos of gold bullion from Hong Kong alone in February. Hong Kong’s gold exports to China in February were nearly 13 times higher than the 3,115 kilograms in the same month last year, the data shows. Shipments were 72,617 kilograms in the first two months, compared with 10,564 kilograms a year ago or nearly a seven fold increase from the record levels seen last year. China’s appetite for gold remains strong and Chinese demand alone is likely to put a floor under the gold market.
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