Israeli TV report shows air force gearing up for Iran attack: ‘Moment of truth is near’

‘IAF expects losses, and knows it can’t destroy entire Iranian program’
by Greg Tepper, Times of Israel:
A major Israel TV station on Sunday night broadcast a detailed report on how Israel will go about attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities in the event that diplomacy and sanctions fail and Israel decides to carry out a military strike.
The report, screened on the main evening news of Channel 10, was remarkable both in terms of the access granted to the reporter, who said he had spent weeks with the pilots and other personnel he interviewed, and in the fact that his assessments on a strike were cleared by the military censor.
No order to strike is likely to be given before the P5+1 talks with Iran resume in May, the reporter, Alon Ben-David, said. “But the coming summer will not only be hot but tense.”
In the event that negotiations fail and the order is given for Israel to carry out an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, “dozens if not more planes” will take part in the mission: attack and escort jets, tankers for mid-air refueling, electronic warfare planes and rescue helicopters, the report said.
Read More @ TimesofIsrael.com

Join Jeff Gundlach Live As He Debates Whether "To QE3 Or Not To QE3"

DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach (whose AUM is now well into the $30 billion area - a scorching ascent for the former TCW manager) will host a live call at 4:15 PM Eastern today, on the ever so salient topic (if somewhat regurgitated soundbite) of whether "To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the question." As is traditional, Gundlach will accept questions from the audience. And as always, lots of very interesting tangential info to be gleaned from one of the truly objective and original thinkers out there.

Martin Armstrong: ‘The euro is fundamentally flawed’

from Gold Money:
This interview was first published in the Hera Research Newsletter.
Hera Research Newsletter (HRN): Thank you for joining us today. Considering the Federal Reserve swap lines and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO), what’s the outlook for the euro?
Martin Armstrong: The structure of the euro is fundamentally flawed. To put it in American terms, it would be as if all 50 states were able to issue federal bonds. It would be total, absolute chaos. What they did, to be politically correct, was to say that, since every member issues its own federal type bonds, they all have to be reserves and the large banks have to fairly allocate among them all. It’s completely crazy. As countries like Greece and Spain and Italy crumble under the debt, it feeds back into the banking system. In the United States, we had the Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) collapse and we saw the government bail out a hedge fund so that they wouldn’t be seen bailing out the New York banks. They have the same problem in Europe. Basically, the ECB bailing out European banks is really going through the back door to support European sovereign bonds.
HRN: Would it be fair to say that the bailouts of Greece have really been bank bailouts while the LTRO is a sovereign debt bailout?
Read More @ GoldMoney.com

 

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Gallup Finds Obama, Romney In Dead Heat As Daily Tracking Begins, With Independents Leaning Toward GOP

Now that the GOP primary is essentially over, and Mitt Romney is set, for better or worse, to be the Republican frontrunner, Gallup has launched its daily tracking poll to keep an eye on each one's presidential prospects. Not surprisingly, the result is a dead heat. "Mitt Romney is supported by 47% of national registered voters and Barack Obama by 45% in the inaugural Gallup Daily tracking results from April 11-15. Both Obama and Romney are supported by 90% of their respective partisans." What is curious is that "The crucial voting bloc of independents breaks toward Romney by 45% to 39%, giving the GOP challenger his slight overall edge." So will Obama now be forced to make a moderate push to attract what will likely be the critical voter constituency in November? We will find out over the next few months.

Spain Goes Irish On Regions

Slowly but surely, the Spanish authorities are gradually socializing the rest of the world to the dismal truth that we have been so vociferously arguing - that their debt levels (or more specifically their debt/GDP ratios) are significantly higher (explicitly) than their current official data suggest. Today's news, via the WSJ, that the Spanish government may take over some regions' finances, in an attempt to shore up investor confidence (just as Ireland did with its banks and we know how well that worked out?) is yet another step closer to the 'realization'  that all that is contingent is actually explicitly guaranteed. As we noted here, this leaves Spain's Debt/GDP nearer 135% than its 'official' 68.5%. The WSJ notes comments from a top government official that "there will soon be new tools to control regional spending" and that they may take over at least one of the country's cash-strapped regions this year. As we broke down extensively here, this is no surprise as yet another group of political elite find the truth harder to deal with than the blinkered optimism they face the media with every day and yet as PM Rajoy notes "Nobody can expect that deep-seated problems be solved in just a few weeks", the irony of the euphoria felt around the world at the optical rally in Spanish spreads for the first few months of the year is not lost as Spain heads back into the abyss ahead of pending auctions and what appears to be more ponzified guarantees of regional finances (as long as they promise to pay it back and have 'a plan'). The simple truth is, as acknowledged by Rajoy, Spain has lost the trust of financial markets.

Living Off Your Tax Money And Hard Work: Atlas Shrugs...

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 10 minutes ago

For those of you who advocate a generous Welfare State, you should know that general reliance on Government handouts is bankrupting this country. And the rate at which it is doing so is accelerating. Defense spending is also contributing to the demise of our system, but right now the ranks of those who take from those who produce is growing quickly. Obama's Administration has been instrumental in expanding the base of people who suck from the system. This scenario is very similar to the scenario that unfolded in "Atlas Shrugged." I wanted to link an excellent blog post from Econ... more »

 

 

Investors Are Overly Optimistic About The Prospects For The U.S. Economy

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 2 hours ago

Where investors were overly negative last year, they are now overly optimistic about the prospects for the U.S. economy. - *in Yahoo’s Breakout* *Related, SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Dow Jones Industrials Index, Nasdaq 100 Index* *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.* more »

 

 

RISK OFF Trades hitting the Commodity Sector

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 2 hours ago

Investors/traders are growing increasingly concerned about an overall global economic slowdown. This morning's Retail Sales number had temporarily cheered them with higher equities coming in on that news but then the fall of the NAHB housing market index (the first in seven months I might add) soured them rather quickly and led to increased selling pressure being seen in the broader equity markets as well as the commodity complex. Even gasoline has thus far not been immune to the pressure. The result of this has seen the CCI moving back towards the critical low made late last year. ... more » 

Clive Hale Shares Things That Make You Go...Aaaargh!

The time has come to raise the 'noise' level for global markets to Defcon 3 as Clive Hale, of View from the Bridge, discusses his four largest stressors currently. Instead of going 'hmmm' as Grant Williams regularly does, Hale is screaming 'aaargh' as he sees Japanese radioactivity uncertainty, market manipulation, the main-stream media's anaesthetising propaganda, and finally the euro (that last lingering but fatally flawed bastion of european union) plethora problems all increasingly weighing on global macro concerns.

Santelli On The Chain Of Insolvency

While it is not unusual for everyone's favorite truth-seeker in Chicago to cut to the chase and simplify the over-complex world of data and nuance that is thrust upon us day after day, CNBC's Rick Santelli outdoes himself today. Initially addressing the retail sales and housing data dichotomy, Rick jumps above the noise of day-to-day data and focuses on what is critical - in his view - the weather and the debt. If only he had used the term "It's the debt stupid" as it would have made for better headlines but the clip below should help anyone and everyone decide on whether this dip is for buying or fading/waiting. In the end, Santelli notes, "It is simple. There are questions about weather and questions about debt. First one we'll know more about in the next two or three months. [For the] latter, we'll have to look toward our neighbors in Europe to see how it ultimately turns out and see if our political class is going to do a better job than the European bureaucracies."

EUR Surging As FX Repatriation Rears Its Ugly Head Again

Back in October, there were those who were confused how it was possible that European sovereign bond yields could be exploding to their highest in a decade, even as the EURUSD keep grinding higher. We explained it, and said to prepare for much worse down the road. Sure enough, much worse came, and was promptly forestalled as both the Fed expanded its swap lines and lower the OIS swap rate, and the ECB "begrudgingly" ceded to LTRO 1+2 (that this resulted in nominal price gains was to be expected - after all humans enjoy being fooled when price levels rise when in reality just the underlying monetary base has expanded). But how did the EURUSD spike fit into all this? Simple - FX repatriation. This was explained as follows: "the sole reason for the EUR (and hence S&P and global 100% correlated equity risk) surge in the past 9 days is not driven by any latent "optimism" that Europe will fix itself, but simply due to the previously discussed wholesale asset liquidations (as none other than the FT already noted), which on the margin are explicitly EUR positive due to FX repatriation, courtesy of the post-sale conversion of USDs to EURs. Which means that the ever so gullible equity market has just experienced one of the biggest headfakes in history, and has misinterpreted a pervasive European, though mostly French, scramble to procure liquidity at any cost by dumping various USD-denominated assets, as a risk on signal!" It appears we are now back into liquidation mode, and the higher Euro spread surge, the faster EURUSD will rise as more and more FX is "repatriated." In other words, as back in the fall of 2011, the faster the EURUSD rises, the worstr the true liquidity situation in Europe becomes: a critical regime change, which will naturally fool the algos who assume every spike up in EURUSD is indicative of Risk On, and send ES higher when in reality, the underlying situation is diametrically opposite.

A Few Words on “QE to Infinity”

by David Schectman, Miles Franklin:
The international appetite for US Treasuries is on the wane. Purchases are politically, not economically motivated. No one buys Treasuries for the pitiful interest rates that they offer. The purchases are structured to hold down interest rates. This is what Quantitative Easing is all about. The only way to hold down interest rates into 2014, as the Fed has promised, is for the Fed and the European central bank to continue to purchase Treasuries and buy PIIGS bonds.
In Europe, Spain and Italy join Greece in needing the ECB to buy their bonds or the market will push UP interest rates in these countries to unsustainable levels. QE is the only tool that they have to hold back a tidal wave of rising interest rates, and the economic damage that rising interest rates will cause. $17 trillion has already been injected into the system, but it went to the winners of derivatives, not to the common man. It kept the banks and the system afloat but did nothing for business or growth.
Read More @ MilesFranklin.com

 

Too Surreal To Comprehend

from TF Metals Report:
There are days when I sit back in wonderment at the position in which “Jimmy Stewart” finds himself. To go from regular dope to regular-dope-with-amazing-contacts is sometimes difficult to deal with in that it’s so surreal. Anyway, there’s just a lot of interesting stuff going on in the world, 99% of which is never discussed in the media, financial or otherwise.
So, I try to make sense of it all and then pass it along to you. The hard part is deciphering what is worthwhile and what is not. And I’m not just talking about the PM-positive, “pumper” information out there. I get a lot of anti-PM, you’re-all-batshit-crazy stuff, too, which, frankly, sometimes has merit. As an example, I give you this:
Read More @ TF Metals Report.com

In The News Today

April 16, 2012, at 1:04 pm
by Jim Sinclair 

Jim Sinclair’s commentary

The newest occupation for college graduates allows them to travel the world – virtually.

You get to meet and see new people and places, linger for days, and then kill them.

Drone pilots wanted. Gamers are preferred. The salary starts in the six figures. This is no joke.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
This is true all the time, however in election years it is an axiom.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is for your information.

Complex Attack by Taliban Sends Message to the West
By ALISSA J. RUBIN, GRAHAM BOWLEY and SANGAR RAHIMI
Published: April 15, 2012
KABUL, Afghanistan — Taliban suicide bombers and gunmen barraged the diplomatic quarter and the Parliament in the Afghan capital for hours on Sunday and struck three eastern provinces as well, in a complex attack clearly designed to undermine confidence in NATO and Afghan military gains.
Though the overall confirmed death toll was low, with six victims initially reported across four provinces, they were among the most audacious coordinated terrorist attacks here in recent years. The multiple sieges ended in Kabul on Monday morning after nearly 18 hours, and silence fell on the city with roads in the bullet-strafed areas beginning to reopen. The last of the attacks to be resolved was the one on the Parliament, which ended at 7:30 a.m., according to a statement by the Afghan Interior Ministry.  “The situation is normal,” the ministry said.
The attacks came near the peak of the American military troop “surge” in Afghanistan, some of it designed around ensuring the security of the capital. And they were an early test for the Afghan National Security Forces, who responded with only minimal help from NATO, Western military officials said.
“No one is underestimating the seriousness of today’s attacks,” Gen. John R. Allen, the NATO commander, said in a statement. “Each attack was meant to send a message: that legitimate governance and Afghan sovereignty are in peril. The A.N.S.F. response itself is proof enough of that folly.”
More…





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is targeted to compete directly with the US dollar for the preferred international contract settlement mechanism.

It will be felt in the dollar market on 2012. It cannot be otherwise.

China gives currency more freedom with new reform
By Koh Gui Qing
BEIJING | Sat Apr 14, 2012 7:02pm EDT
(Reuters) – China took a milestone step in turning the yuan into a global currency on Saturday by doubling the size of its trading band against the dollar, pushing through a crucial reform that further liberalizes its nascent financial markets.
The People’s Bank of China said it would allow the yuan to rise or fall 1 percent from a mid-point every day, effective Monday, compared with its previous 0.5 percent limit.
The timing of the move underlines Beijing’s belief that the yuan is near its equilibrium level, and that China’s economy, although cooling, is sturdy enough to handle important, long-promised, structural reforms, analysts said.
The move would help China deflect criticism of its controversial currency policy ahead of the annual spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Washington next week.
A slowing world economy that has pared investor expectations of a steadily rising yuan likely also gave Beijing the confidence to proceed, knowing that a larger band would not necessarily lead to a stronger currency.
“The central bank chose a good time window to enlarge the trading band. The market’s expectation for a stronger yuan is weakening,” said Dong Xian’an, chief economist at Peking First Advisory in Beijing.
“The move partially clears away doubts on whether China can manage a soft landing in its economy, and makes clear China’s reform road map.”
More…





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

QE will go to infinity because there is no other alternative in a balance sheet depression in financial entities.

2008 plus more, here we come. One small difference is that QE floats all boats.

Homebuilder Outlook Plunges, Reversing Spring Rebound
Published: Monday, 16 Apr 2012 | 10:00 AM ET
By: Diana Olick
In a stark reversal during the heart of the spring housing market, confidence among the nation’s homebuilders dropped in April to levels not seen since January.
An association index measuring sentiment fell three points, changing course after seven straight months of gains.
It now stands at twenty-five; fifty is the line between positive and negative sentiment.
“What we’re seeing is essentially a pause in what had been a fairly rapid build-up in builder confidence that started last September,” said National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist David Crowe in a release.
“This is partly because interest expressed by buyers in the past few months has yet to translate into expected sales activity, but is also reflective of the ongoing challenges that are slowing the housing recovery—particularly tight credit conditions for builders and buyers, competition from foreclosures and problems with obtaining accurate appraisals,” the release goes on to say.
The three components of the index each posted a decline, both current sales and sales expectations down three points and buyer traffic down four points from March.
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

For your information and understanding. QE to infinity is as sure as death and taxes.

Life support is QE to infinity as there is no other functional tool. The key word here is functional.

Still On Life Support
15 Apr 2012 04:58 PM PDT
A Financial Times report, “World Economy Still on Life Support,” pours more cold water on the notion that conditions are returning to “normal.”
The world economy “remains on life support” from central banks and has deteriorated since last autumn, the latest 2 Institution-Financial Times tracking index shows, despite some recent signs of stabilisation.
Economic weakness extends across the Group of 20 leading economies, according to the TIGER (Tracking Indices for the Global Economic)
More…





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Here comes plastic money and Big Brother knows all. It is interesting that the flag is going up the flag pole of our Northern brothers to see who salutes.

Your taxes can be deducted automatically. Refunds require application.

Royal Canadian Mint Launches Mintchip(TM) Developer Challenge
OTTAWA, ONTARIO – April 4, 2012 – The Royal Canadian Mint is pleased to announce that it has launched a program for developers from across North America to test and challenge a digital currency technology and to determine its applicability to the current marketplace. The MintChip™ Developer Challenge, which will accept submissions from April 4 until August 1, is part of the Mint’s ongoing research and development efforts.
“The Royal Canadian Mint has been a trusted and respected custodian of Canadian currency for more than 100 years,” said Ian E. Bennett, President and CEO of the Mint. “As part of its research and development efforts, the Mint has developed MintChip™, which could be characterized as an evolution of physical money, with the added benefits of being electronic.”
MintChip™ uses innovative technology, for which the Mint has prototypes and five patents pending. It uses a secure chip to hold electronic value and a secure protocol to transfer electronic value from one chip to another.
The MintChip™ Developer Challenge will be conducted by ChallengePost and is open to North American software developers who are invited to create innovative mobile payment applications using the MintChip™ technology. The Challenge will test the robustness and applicability of thetechnology with industry experts and help to guide its further development and testing by the marketplace.
More…





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

More reasons regarding why gold. Courtesy of CIGA Pedro

Greek town develops bartering system without euro
12 April 2012 Last updated at 01:20 ET
As Greece wonders whether its debt crisis will eventually spell its exit from the euro, one town in the centre of the country, Volos, has formed an alternative local currency.
It works through a bartering system or exchange of goods.
The BBC’s Mark Lowen reports.
More…





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Our new unilateral government:

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Remember how financial TV screamed out about the so-called market action of credit default derivatives before the Greek default, yet now they remain totally silent on those boondoggles?

Spain will get all it needs just like another Euro member who has or will apply for bailouts.

Fears of Spanish bailout rise as bond yields top 6%
Spanish 10-year bond yields surged past 6% for the first time since December, and the first time since the ECB’s two three-year liquidity operations, raising fears the country might need a bailout. EU officials are due to travel to Washington this week looking for a larger IMF war chest, although while Japan might offer $60B, the U.S. has until now insisted that the EU can use its own resources. SA author Robert Broens explains how affects world markets (Sources: Kyodo, Bloomberg)

 

 

Jim’s Mailbox

April 16, 2012, at 12:50 pm
by Jim Sinclair

Rising Consumer Expectations Imply Higher Gold Prices CIGA Eric
But the measure of consumer expectations rose to 72.5 from 69.8, hitting its highest level since September 2009.
Rising expectations has the media giddy about the prospects for future economic growth and the gold crowd huddled together in fear. While perception sets short-term reality, it does NOT control long-term market forces. The sovereign debt crisis, largely believed to be contained to the irresponsibility of Europe, has infected the world and grows more troublesome with each passing day. Rising consumer expectations which are highly sensitive to rising stock prices show a strong inverse correlation to the price of gold. In other words, as consumer expectation rise, it tends to signal higher gold prices in the future. This correlation grows stronger during periods of economic stress.
Chart: University of Michigan Consumer Expectations (CE) and Gold: A Correlation Study



Headline: Instant View: Consumer sentiment falls in April
(Reuters) – Consumer sentiment slipped modestly in early April as higher gasoline prices hit household budgets, but optimism over the economic outlook lifted consumers’ expectations, a survey released on Friday showed. KEY POINTS: * The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment dipped to 75.7 in April from 76.2 in March. Economists had expected the index to hold at last month’s level. * The survey’s barometer of current economic conditions tumbled to the lowest level since December at 80.6 from 86.0. But the measure of consumer expectations rose to 72.5 from 69.8, hitting its highest level since September 2009.
Source: reuters.com
More…

 

 

Buffett Rule Hypocrisy

April 16, 2012, at 9:46 am
by Greg Hunter 

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Dear CIGAs,
It looks like President Barack Obama is making the tax proposal called the Buffett Rule (also known as the “Paying a Fair Share Act”) into a wedge issue.  This weekend, the President was pushing the tax proposal, named after billionaire Warren Buffett, as a way to reduce the deficit.   The pending legislation says anyone making more than $1 million a year should pay no less than 30% federal tax.   Democrats are going to try to vote on the Buffett Rule this week, but it probably will not get very far in the Senate, and it is a non-starter in the Republican controlled House.
The reason why I say this is merely a “wedge issue” is because it will not do much to reduce the $15.6 trillion deficit.  It will set up another totally false narrative that will not help the country.  According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, which provides the official Congressional analysis of tax legislation, the Buffett Rule will only raise $4.7 billion a year over the next ten years.  Mr. Buffett’s plan is nothing more than a proverbial drop in the bucket.  Counting TARP, QE 1, QE 2 and the $16.1 trillion the Federal Reserve pumped out after the 2008 meltdown, we are well on our way to the $23.7 trillion Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, predicted the crisis would cost back in 2009.  But, even that number, as big as it is, does not tell a complete story, and Mr. Buffett knows it.
The banks are continually being bailed out in many backdoor ways, and to be fair, neither party will say a word about it.  The recent $25 billion “Robo signing/foreclosure fruad” settelement was a form of a bank bailout.  Foreign bank bailouts are also American bank bailouts in disguise.  Take Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, for instance.  Taxpayers now own a 100% stake in these two failed mortgage giants.  Last year, Fannie and Freddie either forgave or bought a total of nearly $200 billion in mortgage debt liability from Bank of America–alone. (I wrote about this before.)  Let that sink in, and then consider Warren Buffet invested $5 billion, last year, into B of A at $7.14 a share.  Friday, the stock price closed at $8.63 a share.  If Buffett sold B of A today, he’d make about $750 million by my calculation.  Give me a break!  Would Mr. Buffett have invested the money into B of A if he knew the bailout party would stop?  I think not.  Why doesn’t Buffett talk about one of the real problems facing America and that is the continuing bailouts for billionaires!   These bailouts have greatly contributed to the ballooning $15.6 trillion U.S. deficit.  Now, there is talk of committing another $100 billion to Fannie and Freddie to add to the $170 billion already blown in backdoor banker bailouts. (Click here for more on that story.)
More…

  

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