Sunday, July 10, 2011


Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Italy and Spain must pray for a miracle

 

 

Alasdair Macleod: Inflation is beyond the tipping point

 

 

EU calls emergency meeting as crisis stalks Italy

 

 

Haynes speculates on silver default; Norcini sees Asia buying dips

 

 

Several Inconvenient Truths About The Debt Ceiling And "Deficit Reduction" 


Bill Buckler presents an amusing compendium of facts, let us call them inconvenient truths, in the latest edition of his newsletter, some of which would make for very entertaining anecdotes if presented at the Biden "deficit cutting" talks, which also, and very paradoxically, aim to cut US debt by increasing it.





Italy May Enforce Naked Short Selling Ban As Early As Tonight To Prevent Market Rout 


Once again the great diversionary scapegoating of speculators begins, after as Il Sole 24 Ora reported that the Consob, or Italy's regulator, may enact a naked short selling ban as early as tonight. The premise is that it is the shorters who are responsible for the ruinous state of the global ponzi. Not the fact that it is a, well, global ponzi. Distraction 101. And yes, it did not work back in 2010 when naked shorting was implemented in other European countries, it will not work this time either. But it won't stop bankrupt governments from trying. To wit: "Commissioners will assess the situation before markets open Monday, said a Consob spokesman, who declined to be named in line with the regulator's policy. Commissioners may decide to restrict "naked" short-selling in line with similar decisions taken in other European countries, he said.... The Consob meeting occurs after shares of Italy’s biggest banks fell to the lowest in more than two years on July 8, and government bonds dropped, driving 10-year yields to a nine-year high." 24 Ore adds: "Consob intervened several times in the past on short selling after the collapse of Lehman Brothers to protect stock markets." 

Chinese Exports Surge To Record, As Trade Surplus Comes At Almost Double The Consensus: More Bad News For US GDP?

So much for China converting from an export-led economy to a consumer-driven society. In June, the Chinese trade balance soared to $22.3 billion, nearly double the consistently clueless economist consensus of $14.2 billion. The surplus was $13.1 billion the previous month and $20 billion a year earlier. This was a result of an all time record in gross exports which hit $162 billion in June, driven by all time high exports to both the US and the EU, at $28 billion and $30.3 billion, respectively. Also, the surge in Chinese exports to the US in June to a near record $19.1 billion (lower than just the $19.4 billion in July 2010), means that the official read of the US trade deficit which will be reported on Tuesday, will almost certainly spike, pushing GDP expectations lower yet again. This is precisely the last news China needed as the surge in new money entering the economy will merely hasten an already overheating economy, and following yesterday's announcement of June CPI coming in at 6.4%, it likely means that the PBoC's statement that inflation is now under control is full of hot air. It also likely means many more attempts at tightening are imminent: expect another RRR hike within a few weeks. Per Bloomberg: "The surplus adds to the cash flooding the economy and complicates Premier Wen Jiabao’s efforts to cool the fastest inflation in three years. Policy makers are seeking to rein in price gains that are stoking social discontent without choking off growth that’s already showing signs of slowing. “We don’t think the PBOC will halt monetary tightening soon,” said Liu Li-Gang, head of Greater China economic research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Corp. in Hong Kong. The central bank will increase bill sales to soak up the extra liquidity from the trade surplus and prevent it from boosting money supply, he said." It also likely means that repo rates and SHIBOR will continue their inexorable trek higher as the Chinese central bank is the latest to find itself between the rock of short-end liquidity constraints, and the hard place of long-term "anchored" inflation expectations. 

European Rescue Fund Insufficient To Rescue Italy, May Be Doubled To Over $2 Trillion 



The latest italy contingency stunner comes from Die Welt which has just reported that the European rescue fund will be insufficient to bail out the latest biggest loser in the game of musical ponzi chairs, Italy. As Reuters translates: "The existing rescue fund in Europe is not sufficient to provide a credible defensive wall for Italy," the central bank source was quoted telling the newspaper in an advance text of an article to appear on Monday. "It was never designed for that," the source added." The newspaper said that the rescue fund might have to be doubled to up to 1.5 trillion euros. But it was not clear if it was the central bank source calling for the increase." Doubling the bailout fund is not a new idea and was previously proposed by Nout Wellink of the Dutch Central Bank, although as Die Welt explains, the decision will ultimately be not that of the ECB but of the separate governments. Germany, as a reminder, is already the biggest backstopper of Europe, and is on the hook for €211 billion euros as the primary funder of the EFSF: which just happens to be the CDO at the heart of the eurozone. Should Germany have to add another 200 billion euros to its rescue commitment, Merkel can forget any and all reelection chances, which is funny since just today it was announced that "Chancellor Angela Merkel has stated publicly that she wishes to run again in 2013. This comes as polls show she would face strong challengers from the opposition Social Democrats." Her chances would be roughly zero if German taxpayers learn that the fate of a failed monetary experiment is increasingly more reliant on their direct labor even as the populations of "austere" countries refuse to work and merely subsist on existing entitlements.





 

 

 

 

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