Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Eighteen Percent of the EU is Literally Junk, Carried As Risk Free Assets at Par Using 30x+ Leverage: Bank Collapse is Inevitable!!!
Reggie Middleton
07/13/2011 - 12:31
I have found what looks like the next TWO (That's right! Two as in number 2) Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns sitting right there smack in the middle of plain site in Europe. The meltdown should occur just as it did here in the US, save the world 2nd largest hedge fund probably will not have the resources to pull that funny little, furry financial creature from the family Leporidae out of their hat like the world's largest hedge fund did in 2008.





Fitch Cuts Greece To Triple Hooks From B+, Off Rating Watch Negative, Blast Lack Of Any Clarity 

New money is required to address Greece's fiscal funding shortfall that would otherwise emerge in 2012 - a key weakness of the current EU-IMF programme highlighted by Fitch at the turn of the year. Fitch had expected the uncertainty surrounding new money, along with the role of private creditors, to be resolved with the completion of the fourth review of the current EU-IMF programme earlier this month. The agency notes that while the main parameters of a new multi-annual adjustment programme were discussed at an Ecofin meeting on 11-12 July, no further clarity on the volume and the terms of new money or the nature of private sector participation was forthcoming.

 

 

The US Is Going To Default One Way Or Another

Jim Rogers Blog - 3 hours ago
We are going to default one way or the other but they may not call it a default. You can inflate your currency and pay people back in worthless money, so it can happen. - *in FoxBusiness* *Tickers: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF), IShares Silver ETF (SLV), SPDR Gold ETF (GLD)* *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall S...
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As Jim Sinclair says, it'll be QE to infinity






Gold Goes Parabolic As Chairsatan Resumes Vendetta With US Dollar, Middle Class 



As Bernanke reminds the world that the one and only weapon in his arsenal is stealth inflation through dollar devaluation (yes, some had already forgotten it, especially all those economists, think tanks, and others who claimed there was no QE3 hint in the FOMC minutes), there is one clear winner: gold, which continues to surge to all time highs and will likely cross $1,600 within the week (if not day), from which point it is smooth sailing to $_,000.



Ben Believes Gold Only Has Value Due To Tradition 



The Bernank picks gold over diamonds due to "tradition".










Buy RISK, Short ES 



Major, major divergence as the robots once again are drunk on positron juice.








Goldman Suck's Take On Ben's Remarks: "Probability Of Easing Over Next 6-9 Months Is Higher Than Probability Of Tightening" 


Fed Chairman Bernanke delivered a balanced assessment of the policy outlook, saying that the economy could evolve in a way that would “warrant a move toward less-accommodative policy”, but that persistent weakness in activity and renewed deflationary risks would “imply a need for additional policy support”. In contrast to our expectations, the prepared remarks included a list of potential easing options—communication changes, changes in the interest paid on reserves, and security purchases. We see this as an upgrade of the seriousness of the easing discussion on the committee, and therefore interpret the speech as a moderate dovish surprise (the easing options were already discussed in the last post-FOMC meeting press conference). We believe the probability of easing over the next 6-9 months is higher than the probability of tightening.



 

Beggars Can't Be Choosers After All: G-Pap Comes Crawling Back To Europe Begging For Second Aid Program... Stat 


Remember insolvent Greece: the country that "was resolved" causing a 600 surge in the Dow in the last week of June (a ramp whose main purpose was to get pension fund performance up to snuff for the end of their fiscal year end). The same country whose PM sent out a blusterous letter full of sound and fury on Monday bashing Europe just after it had agreed to bail out the insolvent Mediterranean country for another month. Something tells us he won't be writing such letters any time soon. According to FT Deustchland, G-Pap said the country needs a decision soon on a second aid program. Papandreou said he’s “open” to the idea of a bond buyback program financed through the European Financial Stability Facility as it could reduce the debt burden and interest payments. In fact, G-Pap forgot to add that he is open to anything that will allow him to rule a hollow shell of a country which will probably soon be used a reverse merger shell by some Chinese company which is banned from listing anywhere in the free world, except for the Athens stock exchange of course.



Van Hoisington Q2 Letter: "Fully Committed To Treasurys" But Clouds Are Gathering 


While the operator of printers of mass destruction drones on about QE3, 4, 5 and so forth, confirming that if not inflation, we will surely get hyperinflation or bust, a long-term Treasury bull, Van Hoisington, once again chimes in with his big picture macro view. As usual, it all boils down to the inflation/deflation debate. His take: "While the massive budget deficits and the buildup of federal debt, if not addressed, may someday result in a substantial increase in interest rates, that day is not at hand. The U.S. economy is too fragile to sustain higher interest rates except for interim, transitory periods that have been recurring in recent years. As it stands, deflation is our largest concern, therefore we remain fully committed to the long end of the Treasury bond market." Too bad the Chairsatan just said each and every episode of deflation will be met with round after round of monetary devaluation. And last, we still can't find the chapter in the history books that indicates a sovereign state (either in Roman times, or modern, and especially since the invention of the printing press) imploded due to hyperdeflation. That long end of the bond market is sold to you Van.



Guest Post: COMMERCIAL SHORTS LOSING CONTROL ON THE SILVER PRICE MANIPULATION

By: SRSrocco


The commercial shorts are fighting a losing battle in controlling the price of silver. The chart above comes from Jim Willie’s most recent article “The Silver Platter Opportunity”. Willie makes the point that this is one of the four best buying opportunities of the past eight years….according to the COT structure. Even though this is true, I find the overall trend in commercial short/long vs. the price action more interesting.

To simplify the chart above for those investors who are not that familiar with the COT Report, the RED line shows the commercial short positions divided by the commercial longs. The BLUE line shows the price of silver. According to Ted Butler, silver has had the highest commercial short to long position in history compared to every other commodity. The commercial shorts have been able to control the silver market by mere size and leverage of their positions forcing the weaker spec longs to capitulate time and time again.

The one thing that Willie fails to mention in his article is the overall trend of the commercial shorts since 2005. In 2006 we see that the commercials had over 5 times more shorts to longs. Below is a comparison of the Jan 31, 2006 COT Report to the most recent COT Report of July 5th, 2011.

JAN 31, 2006 COT REPORT (SILVER $9.91)
COMMERCIAL SHORTS = 98.383
COMMERCIAL LONGS = 19,688
NET SHORT/LONG = 4.99

JULY 5, 2011 COT REPORT (SILVER $34.76)
COMMERCIAL SHORTS = 66,999
COMMERCIAL LONGS = 33,548
NET SHORT/LONG = 1.99

Now that silver is nearly $25 higher than it was in JAN 2006, the net commercial short/long is almost at the same level it was when silver hit $9.00 in OCT 2008. This is extremely bullish….but this is only part of the good news.

Hardly anyone in the investing community took notice that something very interesting took place in the month of Oct 2010. We can see for the first time the RED line falls below the BLUE price line. This indeed is a significant event. It is my contention that the commercial shorts no longer have the leverage to control the price of silver. Furthermore, the failure of the commercial shorts to control the price led to the CME and other Exchanges to raise margin requirements to help assist in bringing the price of silver down.


Even though I have written about this in previous comments on the SGS blog, I wanted to put it on a chart so everyone could see just how obvious silver was taken down. The chart starts on April 4th and ends on May 5th. The dates on the bottom highlighted in yellow correspond to the closing of the COT REPORT on each Tuesday.

The first thing we notice is the pathetic attempt to take silver down on April 8th. During the week the commercials liquidated 3,700 contracts even as the overall price of silver moved up $0.76 to close at $40.06. In the following two weeks, there must have been panic in the commercials as they liquidated 8,000 more short contracts with an additional $5.40 move higher in silver. In those three weeks the commercials liquidated 11,530 short contracts as the price moved up $6, but only a lousy 5,094 contracts as the price declined the following week….a most dismal performance indeed.

We can see that on April 26th the first CME Silver Margin Hike was announced which brought the price of silver down $1.40. As the price of silver continued higher over the next two days the CME announced the second Silver Margin Hike to take place on Friday, April 29th. At the end of trading on Friday the price of silver fell a lousy $0.55 to close at $47.87.

The third CME Silver Margin Hike was announced to take place on close of trading on May 3rd to be followed by the fourth to occur on May 5th (not to forget the fifth margin hike on May 9th). It was these five CME margin hikes in coordination with several other hikes by other exchanges that the price of silver was finally taken down to the low $30’s. This was not to limit a speculative frenzy as the nitwits on CNBC touted or as the CME reported, but to stop the bleeding of commercial shorts from an ongoing short squeeze orchestrated by strong hedge fund buying.

It is now evident…the damage has been done to the commercial shorts. There is no heading back. With the pathetic 28 million ounces in the Registered Dealer category, the commercial shorts do not have the ammo to increase their positions to any degree without severe risk. We must remember the Fed and US Treasury want silver to behave like a commodity and not a precious metal. When its price finally explodes higher due to fundamentals, any remaining confidence in the dollar will be lost. 





A US Default Is Inevitable: Fund Manager  





US Will Keep Paying Bondholders After Aug. 2: Bernanke








Bernanke: Fed May Launch New Round of Stimulus




Wednesday, July 13, 2011 – by Staff Report


China's Economy Grows 9.5%, Exceeding Estimates ... China's economy and industrial production expanded more than analysts predicted, indicating the nation is maintaining momentum even after interest-rate increases to cool inflation. Gross domestic product rose 9.5 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today, after a 9.7 percent gain the previous three months. The median estimate was for a 9.3 percent pace in a Bloomberg News survey of 18 economists. Industrial output advanced 15.1 percent in June, the most since May 2010. – Bloomberg
Dominant Social Theme: See, things are good! China is in a good shape, Europe is recovering and America has the political will to deal with its problems. Recovery is on the way. No problem!
Free-Market Analysis: We are not convinced by the endless stream of happy talk that emanates from the mainstream media these days. Our view is less benign. From what we can see, the world is descending into a kind of controlled (or uncontrolled) Great Depression. It's taking time but the arc is clear.
This article will illustrate yet again how mainstream media covers the world – China in particular – and why the reality is so much different. We regularly observe that the world's conversation is organized via the Anglosphere elites' "dominant social themes."
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