Stocks dumping, dollar at all time lows against a plethora of FX pairs, while gold (and silver) is sticky as superglue and remains just a few dollars away from its all time nominal highs, and just short of $1,600, which we expect will be taken out as soon as the world realizes that the Greek 2 Year spread to Bunds is now over 30% and that Europe is not fixed. Perhaps Bernanke would like to take another stab at that whole "is gold money" question...
Latest Rumor: White House Announces $1.5 Trillion Cuts Agreement Reached
From $4 trillion to $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion.
The latest gimmick to bounce the market is the completely unfounded
rumor that the White House has said both side agree on $1.5 trillion in
deficit cuts and an additional $200 billion can be agreed upon soon.
Stocks surge, bonds tank...because, you know, this is good for America's
credit standing according to Moodys. We give this rally a few minutes
before Boehner comes out and denies everything.
Capital controls, oppressive regulation likely after collapse, Zulauf tells King World News
Post QE2 Direct Bidder Onslaught Carries 30 Year Auction
Today's 30 Year auction of $13 billion was a carbon copy of the previous 3 Year and 10 Years both pricing in the last two days. What was so carbony about them? Well, all three came inside the When Issued, with the 30 Year $13 billion reopening pricing at 4.198% 2 bps inside the 4.22% WI, and all three have seen a surge in Direct Bidding take down. Is the Direct Bidder, a category that was redefined back in June 2009 for reasons not exactly known, the "buying force" that is supposed to take over for dropping Indirect Interest? And yes, for a strong auction the 30 Year today saw a decline in foreign bidder participation to just 37.8%, better only than May's 33%, and the second worst in all of 2011. But yes, thanks to the "Directs" coming out of left field and bidding up a whopping 21.9%, compared to 9.3% in the June auction, the Bid To Cover surged to 2.80 from 2.63. One look at the chart below shows that there is a very distinct correlation between the take down of Direct Bidders and QE: between February and August, or the period between QE1 and QE2, the average Direct Bid was 22.3%, while during QE periods this number gets cut in half. We doubt Directs are merely indirect proxies for China, but like everything else having to do with the riskless basis of Treasury auctions, the actual source remains shrouded in secrecy, and only after the collapse of the Treserve ponzi do we hope to discover just who and how makes up this category. One thing is certain: we are 100% confident Direct Bidders will make up a major portion of all auction across the curve until the onset of QE3.
It Begins: JPMorgan Lowers Q3 GDP
By now it is no secret that Q2 GDP is a complete scratch, likely coming at under 2%, meaning that the economy contracted in real terms (even though back in January every Wall Street economist expected a 4% growth rate at this point). Needless to say, those who have been reading Zero Hedge know that Q3 and Q4 will suffer the same fate. Everyone else who has been holding out in hope that some mythical and mysterious car buying force will appear out of somewhere and can now relax. It isn't. Here is the first official Q3 GDP downgrade, courtesy of JPM's Michael Feroli. We fully expect every other clueless Wall Street lemming to follow suit in minutes.Obama Seeking Emergency Camp David Meeting, Boehner Just Says No
In the most dramatic example of someone give
the teleprompter the finger on the debt target (f/k/a debt ceiling, in
the pre Federal Reserve days), after earlier it was announced that
Obama, so willing to continue the charade, was pushing for a Camp David
meeting where the debt ceiling issue would be resolved,
bunch-of-fat-old-men-locked-up-in-a-room-nobody-leaving-until-solution-is-reached
style, Reuters reports that Boehner has politely refused this latest
farcical denouement, and told the White House "that he sees no need to move the negotiations on debt and deficits to Camp David." In other news, it is now 7 days and counting until July 22.
Just in case there is still any doubt why banks are now laying off entire trading desks, and why retail will never again come back to the stock market, here is today's flash crash: ASIA (not the continent, the Nasdaq stock), hot on the heel's of yesterday's and the one from the day before, and so on. The market is as broken as it ever was, and the porn addicts continue to do nothing about it. Oh, and for those claim this was an accidental fat finger, the total amount of shares that traded during the flashy crashy period: 219,488.
Retail Sales Stagnate on Unemployment By Bob Willis – Jul 14, 2011 7:07 AM MT
Sales at U.S. retailers stagnated in June as rising unemployment held consumers back.
The 0.1 percent increase reported by the Commerce Department in Washington today compared with the median forecast of a 0.1 percent drop in the Bloomberg News survey of 80 economists. Excluding auto sales, purchases were little changed, the weakest performance since July 2010.
Total sales were boosted by an unexpected increase in demand at auto dealers that will not influence figures on consumer spending for the second quarter that the government will publish later this month. Increasing joblessness prompted stores like Target Corp. and Gap Inc. to sweeten discounts to lure customers as a dearth of jobs raises the risk that household purchases will have difficulty picking up for the rest of 2011.
“Consumers are cautious,” said Michelle Meyer, a senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. “There is still pretty slow momentum. It still shows we’re in a fragile recovery.”
Other reports today showed claims for jobless benefits and producer prices fell, and consumer confidence improved.
The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level since April, reflecting fewer-then-typical dismissals in the auto industry during the summer retooling period at auto makers, Labor Department data showed.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Here is the latest from John Williams’ www.ShadowStats.com.
- At Best, Inflation-Adjusted Retail Sales Showed No Growth in Second-Quarter 2011
- Trade Data Should Offer a Positive Contribution to Second-Quarter GDP Growth
- Wholesale Inflation Spreading to Broad Economy, Despite Short-Lived Dip in Oil and Gasoline Prices
"No. 378: June Retail Sales, PPI, May Trade Deficit"
http://www.shadowstats.com
ASIA Flash Crashes - Berserk Algo Caught Red Handed
Just in case there is still any doubt why banks are now laying off entire trading desks, and why retail will never again come back to the stock market, here is today's flash crash: ASIA (not the continent, the Nasdaq stock), hot on the heel's of yesterday's and the one from the day before, and so on. The market is as broken as it ever was, and the porn addicts continue to do nothing about it. Oh, and for those claim this was an accidental fat finger, the total amount of shares that traded during the flashy crashy period: 219,488.
Goldman On Retail Sales: "Disappointing"
Somehow, with Amazon trading at all time highs,
June retail sales, once again, came in "disappointing"... not our word.
Goldman's. And that's even with nobody paying their i) mortgage, ii)
property/school taxes, iii) lawn care, iv) federal income tax, v) food
(thank you record food stamp usage), and, of course, vi) healthcare.
Another battle lost by the permabulls (ot is that permacow in Joseph
Cohen's case?). But no, the GDP hockeystick is coming. Just you wait! No
really, you will have to wait...a long, long time.
July 14, 2011, at 8:56 am
by Jim Sinclair in the category In The News |
Print This Post | 
Email This Post
by Jim Sinclair in the category In The News |
Print This Post | Email This PostRetail Sales Stagnate on Unemployment By Bob Willis – Jul 14, 2011 7:07 AM MT
Sales at U.S. retailers stagnated in June as rising unemployment held consumers back.
The 0.1 percent increase reported by the Commerce Department in Washington today compared with the median forecast of a 0.1 percent drop in the Bloomberg News survey of 80 economists. Excluding auto sales, purchases were little changed, the weakest performance since July 2010.
Total sales were boosted by an unexpected increase in demand at auto dealers that will not influence figures on consumer spending for the second quarter that the government will publish later this month. Increasing joblessness prompted stores like Target Corp. and Gap Inc. to sweeten discounts to lure customers as a dearth of jobs raises the risk that household purchases will have difficulty picking up for the rest of 2011.
“Consumers are cautious,” said Michelle Meyer, a senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. “There is still pretty slow momentum. It still shows we’re in a fragile recovery.”
Other reports today showed claims for jobless benefits and producer prices fell, and consumer confidence improved.
The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level since April, reflecting fewer-then-typical dismissals in the auto industry during the summer retooling period at auto makers, Labor Department data showed.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Here is the latest from John Williams’ www.ShadowStats.com.
- At Best, Inflation-Adjusted Retail Sales Showed No Growth in Second-Quarter 2011
- Trade Data Should Offer a Positive Contribution to Second-Quarter GDP Growth
- Wholesale Inflation Spreading to Broad Economy, Despite Short-Lived Dip in Oil and Gasoline Prices
"No. 378: June Retail Sales, PPI, May Trade Deficit"
http://www.shadowstats.com
The Message of The Market Trumps Official Testimony
CIGA Eric
The suggestion of more policy support if need is as close to the truth as it gets for the cameras.
Meanwhile, the risk aversion bounce in the gold to silver ratio has nearly run its course. This intermarket setup implies that the Fed’s confidence-building camera talk is cheap. When the sh*t hits the fan, any economic resolve will quickly yield to hasty damage control.
Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR), Monthly Average Price:![clip_image001[1]](http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/clip_image00111.jpg "clip_image001[1]")
Headline: INSTANT VIEW 8-Bernanke says more policy support possible
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday the central bank is ready to ease monetary policy further if the economy weakens and inflation moves lower, suggesting policymakers are actively mulling further stimulus. STORY: HIGHLIGHTS: KEY POINTS: * Bernanke specifically noted Fed forecasts for June, which were already revised down significantly from April, had not incorporated recent data, particularly last Friday’s dismal employment report. That data showed job growth essentially grinding to a halt in the last two months, pushing the jobless rate up to 9.2 percent. * Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, released on Tuesday, showed some policymakers believe the Fed should stand ready to provide more support to the economy if the recovery flags, rekindling the threat of a debilitating downward spiral in prices and wages.
Source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43740018
More…
The Calm Before Another Stimulus Storm CIGA Eric
The US federal budget as percentage of GDP, also know as Jim’s formula, is beginning to weaken and roll over (see chart below). Any doubts about further quantitative easing and/or stimulus will be laid to rest once the downside acceleration can no longer be denied. Be prepared.
US Federal Budget (Surplus or Deficit As A % of GDP, 12 Month Moving Average) and Gold London P.M. Fixed:
Headline: Summary Box: Deficit nearing $1 trillion mark
DEFICIT HIGH: The federal budget deficit is on track to top $1 trillion for the third straight year. The government said the deficit in the first nine months of the budget year was $971 billion. The gap will probably top last year’s $1.29 trillion, but come in less than the record deficit of $1.41 trillion in 2009.
Source: finance.yahoo.com
More…
CIGA Eric
The suggestion of more policy support if need is as close to the truth as it gets for the cameras.
Meanwhile, the risk aversion bounce in the gold to silver ratio has nearly run its course. This intermarket setup implies that the Fed’s confidence-building camera talk is cheap. When the sh*t hits the fan, any economic resolve will quickly yield to hasty damage control.
Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR), Monthly Average Price:
![clip_image001[1]](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNFwa-RtbT2JLUAn5RVVTcWp8NX3BCMqiauH4U_khXgz3A1Y_G5PqmhbLeSI_AHPwNH1Qeilxd5LGf0qFSW4FP7lSnfUcYSxoQ1Pc9Q5zuXNVToW85i-TKbGj-kIN6gkgNOwyN9G-4cXA/s1600/GSR.JPG "clip_image001[1]")
Headline: INSTANT VIEW 8-Bernanke says more policy support possible
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday the central bank is ready to ease monetary policy further if the economy weakens and inflation moves lower, suggesting policymakers are actively mulling further stimulus. STORY: HIGHLIGHTS: KEY POINTS: * Bernanke specifically noted Fed forecasts for June, which were already revised down significantly from April, had not incorporated recent data, particularly last Friday’s dismal employment report. That data showed job growth essentially grinding to a halt in the last two months, pushing the jobless rate up to 9.2 percent. * Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, released on Tuesday, showed some policymakers believe the Fed should stand ready to provide more support to the economy if the recovery flags, rekindling the threat of a debilitating downward spiral in prices and wages.
Source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43740018
More…
The Calm Before Another Stimulus Storm CIGA Eric
The US federal budget as percentage of GDP, also know as Jim’s formula, is beginning to weaken and roll over (see chart below). Any doubts about further quantitative easing and/or stimulus will be laid to rest once the downside acceleration can no longer be denied. Be prepared.
US Federal Budget (Surplus or Deficit As A % of GDP, 12 Month Moving Average) and Gold London P.M. Fixed:
Headline: Summary Box: Deficit nearing $1 trillion mark
DEFICIT HIGH: The federal budget deficit is on track to top $1 trillion for the third straight year. The government said the deficit in the first nine months of the budget year was $971 billion. The gap will probably top last year’s $1.29 trillion, but come in less than the record deficit of $1.41 trillion in 2009.
Source: finance.yahoo.com
More…
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif)
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