Another Nail In The Dollar's Coffin: CME Launching Renminbi Futures On August 22 

Remember when the dollar reigned supreme, and nobody cared about that joke of a currency, the Chinese Renminbi? Neither do we. And neither does the CME, which just announced it is launching USD/CNY futures, which will be available in standard and E-micro sizes beginning August 22. Put otherwise, with one fell swoop the CME will now allow one to transform liability risk, credit and maturity of underlying assets from one currency to another, while on margin (granted, exposed to the same margin shenanigans that make silver bulls scream blood murder every time the CME's name is mentioned). And the CME is just the beginning of what soon will allow everyone to denominate their liability exposure into the Chinese currency. In the process, the dollar lost yet another battle, as it continues to lose the war. 

 

 

 

 

 

Geithner on TV – “Keynesian economics has failed”

Posted by: Bruce Krasting

Post date: 07/10/2011 - 15:30

The soon to be out of a job Treasury Secretary finally admits to reality.

 

Regulatory Panic Spreads As Italy Orders Short Sellers To Disclose Positions 

The earlier news that Italy's regulator may forbid naked short selling in a desperate attempt to preempt the bond vigilantes from taking down the country's financial system (how shorting stocks prevent evil speculators from selling bonds is somewhat confusing) has been confirmed. But that's just the beginning. The latest twist is that the Consob has also requiring shorts to immediately disclose their short positions "in an effort to increase market transparency." Odd how shorts are never required to be exposed when the markets are surging (or how silver margins have yet to be reduced despite the near 40% price drop in the metal from recent peaks). It gets worse: from Bloomberg: "The European Securities and Markets Authority, which co- ordinates the work of national regulators in the 27-nation EU, should be given emergency powers to temporarily ban short selling or trades in CDS on sovereign debt in the EU, the Parliament said. The Italian regulator said short sellers must disclose their net positions when they reach 0.2 percent or more of a company’s capital and then make additional filings for each additional 0.1 percent."

US Bond Owners Are Dancing With The Devil

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 50 minutes ago

Jim Rogers understands the bond market. 5/31/11 marked the high and maximum short side concentration. It's been all downhill since then. US Treasury Bond 20YR+ (TLT) And US Treasury Bond Diffusion Index (DI) I cannot imagine or conceive lending money to the United States government for 30-years at 3, 4, 5 or 6 percent — you pick a number — in U.S. dollars. There may be rallies, I may be... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 

 

 

 

 

Several Inconvenient Truths About The Debt Ceiling And "Deficit Reduction" 

Bill Buckler presents an amusing compendium of facts, let us call them inconvenient truths, in the latest edition of his newsletter, some of which would make for very entertaining anecdotes if presented at the Biden "deficit cutting" talks, which also, and very paradoxically, aim to cut US debt by increasing it.

Obama To Address Nation ( Lie) At 11:00 AM, Announcing Lack Of Agreement On Debt Ceiling, Or T Minus 10 Working Days Until T-Day 

After meeting for exactly 75 minutes, the president and members of congress achieved absolutely nothing except for what ZH readers already knew: that a debt deal has to be reached by July 22 or else. "President Barack Obama said Sunday that "we need to" work out a debt deal within the next 10 days as he convened a meeting with congressional leaders, aiming to fashion a deficit reduction package for the next 10 years. As the meeting opened, Obama and the leaders sat around the table in Sunday casual dress. Asked whether the White House and Congress could "work it out in 10 days," Obama replied, "We need to." Despite Boehner's preference for a smaller, $2 trillion plan for deficit reduction, White House aides said Sunday that Obama would press the lawmakers to accept the larger deal. Republicans object to its substantial tax increases and Democrats dislike its cuts to programs for seniors and the poor. The aides, however, left room for negotiations on a more modest approach." And just like on Friday when the president's appearance was heralded as a harbinger of a massive NFP beat only to be the biggest let down since Geithner's TV appearances in February which sent the market down by 10 S&P points each time, so the president will address the nation tomorrow. From Reuters: "U.S. President Barack Obama will hold a news conference at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT) on Monday about the status of negotiations to cut the deficit and raise the debt ceiling, the White House said on Sunday. Obama met with congressional leaders for about 75 minutes Sunday evening and will meet again with them on Monday "to discuss the ongoing efforts to find a balanced approach to deficit reduction," the White House said, without giving a time for that session." 

 

 

 

 

 

Guest Post: The Financial System Is Built On Eggshells: Can Spain Avoid Default On Its Own? 

The European financial system, like the others, is efficient but is not robust. It makes the most of what it has and runs on a razor edge between efficiency gains for individual agents and horrendous systemic losses. It depends crucially on the performance of its sovereign assets. System survival depends on one hand whether or not counterparties can absorb the necessary haircuts and on the other, whether fundamentals of debtor nations are strong enough to stand on their own. Spain and Italy will have to stand on their own, because when Greece goes, Ireland will most likely go, which will in turn set off a critical mass such that the nation who dictates monetary policy (Germany) will be taking care of its own self. 

 

 

 

 

 

Maturity Of Average Outstanding Treasury Debt Jumps To 8 Year High 

Something curious happened with outstanding Treasury debt over the past few years: after plunging in average maturity to just 49 months during the Lehman crisis, when everyone scrambled to safety of Bills and the Treasury was forced to issue gobs of it, since then average maturity has been a one way street, and as of the end of Q1 as per the most recent quarterly refunding statement, is at 60 months. This is the "oldest" average Treasury age since 2003, and a substantial shift from the recent average of about 55 months. Incidentally, 60 months is what Stone McCarthy calculates is the average maturity of Fed SOMA holdings (as in debt purchased as part of the various QE programs). Keep in mind this chart is as of March 31: in the past three months due to the debt ceiling breach, Geithner has aggressively reduced Bill rollovers, which means the average Treasury age is likely about 65 months if not more. And while we have discussed the imminent surge of Bill issuance as soon as the debt ceiling is raised, this will be nowhere near enough to get the Treasury comfortable with average bond aging. Since Geithner will certainly do all in his power to reduce the average duration on marketable bonds to recent historic lows, the only way we can think of this happening on a "voluntary" basis is for a recreation of the same Lehman conditions that forced a 6 month change in maturity in the span of 60 days back in October 2008. 

 

 

 

 

 

Key Events And Catalysts In The Week Ahead 

China activity data: Following the June CPI print, which saw inflation rise to 6.4% yoy, in line with our above-consensus forecast, we will be looking for above-consensus activity readings for Q2 GDP and June industrial production. Eurogroup meeting and bank stress tests: This will be an important policy week for Europe. On Friday, the IMF approved its disbursement to Greece under the old EU/IMF program of EUR110 bn agreed in 2010. Discussions at the Eurogroup meeting will center on the financing of a new program, which is supposed to close the financing gap for Greece for 2012 and 2013. The role of private sector involvement remains a key issue. The week also brings a bond auction for Italy on Thursday, for an estimated EUR7 bn. The week ends with the publication of the EU-wide bank stress tests on Friday. Summary results will be published at 6 pm CEST, with bank-by-bank results following thereafter. Bernanke testimony: In his semiannual monetary policy testimony, Fed Chairman Bernanke is likely to repeat the basic message from his recent press conference—namely that labor market performance has been disappointing but that inflation remains too high to combat the weakness with additional monetary easing. 

 

 

 

 

 

Recovery Charts-expect a tough and volatile autumn

Posted by: thetrader

Post date: 07/10/2011 - 19:08

Recovery Charts by www.thetrader.se

 

 

 

 

 

Guest Post: Peace In Our Time 

In 1938 the citizens of the major European powers, Germany, France and the UK, along with isolationist America, having suffered grievously during WW1 were willing to believe almost any lie that supported the prevailing sentiment. Sentiment exemplified by the aforementioned timeless speech from Neville Chamberlain. Today I see a European political and economic elite clinging desperately to the notion that any action that calls into question the current construct of pan-European “unity” must be quashed to preserve the peace. The reality from the available evidence suggests that what these elites are more fearful of is broad realization that this current construct is as fatally flawed as the one in existence in 1938.