Gold Surges To Nominal Euro & Pound Record– Jim Cramer Critiques Warren Buffett On Anti Gold Bias 

Gold has risen to new record highs in pounds and euros as concerns about contagion in the eurozone and stagflation in the UK deepen. The euro has fallen sharply in international markets and is down 1.5% against gold so far this morning. European Council President Herman Van Rompuy has called an emergency meeting of top officials dealing with the euro zone debt crisis as concerns deepen over the sovereign debt crisis spreading to Spain and Italy. Spain’s 10-year yield spread over Germany widened to a euro-era record of over 300 basis points. Italian and Portuguese bonds are also under pressure with Portuguese 10 year yields surging to 13.4%. The risk of contagion affecting European and international banks and a new banking crisis rises by the day. Meanwhile, in the U.S., President Obama is seeking a massive $4 trillion in a deficit reduction package. Failure to do so may lead to a U.S. and global sovereign debt crisis. 

Is Silver Poised For Long-Overdue Technical Breakout? FMX Connect Chimes In 

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/11/2011 09:17 -0400

At FMX|Connect we offer little variety in the technical analysis arena. We leave that expertise to Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover fame, one of the preeminent energy analysts of our generation and someone with whom we are proud to partner. There are however two indicators that we feel quite comfortable with. These indicators are largely based on probabilities and volatility, areas we are much more at home assessing. The first one we’ve called our Trend-Vol Indicator. It measures the risk-reward in being short volatility through its cycles. Secondly, it often gives a low noise directional indicator which our readers may know we’ve used with some success during this Gold bull market. Its methodology is largely home-grown and proprietary: but suffice to say, it is a concoction of Bollinger bands, historical and implied volatility correlations, with a dash of skew thrown in. The second indicator we claim less ownership of, but have done some refinement to. It is something called the 6 Week Reversal signal, and if memory serves, was popular with Connors and Raschke for a while. Silver is entering an area right now that puts it on our radar for both indicators. This is extremely rare, considering the Trend-Vol system is used for breakouts, and the 6WR is for reversals. Before we get into it, some basic technical stuff we see in Silver.

Global Crisis Spreads To China Where The Finance Ministry Fails To Sell Half Of Local Government Debt Offered 

Europe is now openly burning once again (Italy-Bund spreads just hit a new record), the US is 9 days away from being bankrupt, and completing the trifecta is China, which just failed to sell half of the proposed 50 billion in CNY of local government debt at an auction, courtesy of the SHIBOR supernova which oddly only Zero Hedge has been covering. From Bloomberg: "China’s finance ministry failed to sell all of the three-year debt offered at an auction on behalf of local governments as a cash crunch curbed demand. The ministry sold 23.9 billion yuan ($3.7 billion) of bonds at a yield of 3.93 percent on behalf of 11 provinces and municipalities, falling short of its 25 billion yuan target, said a trader at a finance company required to bid at the auction. The Shanghai interbank offered rate, or Shibor, for three-month yuan loans, was fixed at 6.24 percent today, near a record high of 6.46 percent reached on June 28. “While the interbank borrowing cost is so high, investors won’t spend money on local government debt,” said Huang Yanhong, a bond analyst at Bank of Nanjing Co. in Nanjing. “Demand is low also because the debt’s secondary-market trading isn’t active. After you buy it, you can only hold it till maturity." Who would have possibly thought that 7 week money costing 7% and more could have implications and stuff...

Geopolitcal Risk Off 

From Reuters:
PRESIDENT BASHAR AL-ASSAD LOYALISTS BREAK INTO U.S. EMBASSY COMPOUND IN DAMASCUS-DIPLOMATS IN SYRIAN CAPITAL
And getting worse per RanSquawk:
French Embassy guards fire live ammunition to repulse crowd loyal to president Assad on Embassy compound in Damascus 

Euro-Swiss In Freefall, Triggers 1.18 Stops As It Tumbles To Fresh Record Lows, Sends Gold Surging 

This morning's Greek deposit flight (which recently dropped by €5 billion or 2.5% of total, in the month of May) appears to be enjoined by other countries, who are now actively converting their currencies into CHF and stuffing it into bank vaults deep under the Swiss Alps. As of minutes ago the critical EURCHF just took out the 1.18 stops, which sent the pair tumbling to an all time record lows of 1.1789. And, like clockwork, the triggering of the Swissy stops, send gold surging to a new record high in euros, and to just under $1,550 in USD. And elsewhere, confirming that Italy is merely the gateway drug, is the Belgium-Bund spread, which just hit all time wides. And this is as the S&P long overdue threat to downgrade the world's longest governmentless country hangs like a sword of Damocles which will send the Euro-crisis into overdrive.

EURCHF Tumble Continues: 100 pips In Minutes 

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/11/2011 08:33 -0400

This is getting serious boys and girls. Not even an hour ago we wrote about the EURCHF taking out the record 1.1801 low. Minutes later, and the pair has now tumbled another 100 pips and just hit 1.1695 without any indication it will stop. Follow this pair for the most liquid indication if the European house of cards will tumble today. And to celebrate the collapse of Europe's ponzi, Intesa Sanpaolo (remember them?) just got halted after tumbling over 6%. 

Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: July 11 

Risk-aversion remained the dominant theme during the European session, as lack-lustre economic data from the US last week, and China, during the weekend, weighed on market sentiment. Allied to that, the ongoing contagion fears in the Eurozone dented the appetite for risk-among investors. European equities traded lower throughout the session, with particular weakness seen in financials, which was also reflected in the Italian FTSE MIB and Spanish IBEX 35 indices underperforming their European peers. Weak equities provided support to Bunds, whereas general widening was observed in the Eurozone peripheral 10-year government bond yield spreads. European sovereign concerns together with strength in the USD-Index weighed upon EUR/USD and GBP/USD, whereas safe-haven currencies including JPY and CHF received a boost. Elsewhere, WTI and Brent crude futures traded under pressure weighed upon by a strong USD as well as diminishing hopes of a sustainable economic recovery. 

Frontrunning: July 11 

• Merkel's Migraine: The Man Who Wants Greece to Give Up the Euro (Spiegel)
• Up to 15 years needed to fix Greece: German president (Reuters)
• Taxes still a stumbling block in debt talks (Reuters)
• EU stance shifts on Greece default (FT, first in the WSJ)
• EU calls emergency meeting as crisis stalks Italy (Reuters)
• China Boosts Lead in Global Exports (WSJ)
• Italy's Market Regulator Imposes Measures To Curb Speculation (WSJ)
• NOTW reporters tried to access 9/11 phone data (Reuters)
• Trichet says debt is global, not European problem (Reuters)

 

 

Dagong Puts Italy Ratings On Downgrade Review 

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/11/2011 07:39 -0400

The farce is now complete, as the Chinese rating agency Dagong, which was the first one to downgrade the US, reminds the world it is there to lend its weight in destabilizing the ponzi house of cards. From Dow Jones: "Chinese ratings agency Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. said Monday it is putting Italy's sovereign debt on negative watch for a possible downgrade. The Italian government's debt accounts for 119% of gross domestic product, with most of the debt coming due in the next five years, Dagong said in a statement. Dagong has often issued controversial ratings. In November last year, it cut its rating on the U.S. to A+ from AA, with a negative outlook. It ranks the U.S. as a riskier borrower than China. Italian debt is in focus at the moment, as spreads between 10-year Italian and German bond yields reached a record 2.47 percentage points on Friday. Dagong said in its statement that it will downgrade Italian debt if the government's debt-financing costs continue to rise. "(Italy's) financing needs are huge each year, and the debt burden of the government will be seriously constrained by financing costs," Dagong said. Dagong gave Italy an A- rating with a negative outlook in June 2010." Who could have possibly thought that Italy's surging issuance load over the short term could be an issue. Oh wait... And yes, the irony that China, which as of this morning has telegraphed it is just as helpless in controlling the global liquidity implosion as everyone else, is downgrading another insolvent country is not lost on us. But yes, earlier Dagong did announce that that Moody's report on local government debt is "unfounded" and "vicious." Perhaps the most ironic thing is that the rating agencies got us here... And they will be those who get us out (courtesy of the escalating downgrades to the global reset ushering bottom). 

 

 

 

 

 

Jim O'Neill Is Angry At Reality For Destroying His Kool-Aid Inspired Delirium 

Just when it seemed things were shifting back to the optimists’ camp, Friday’s news about the state of the world threw another spanner in the works. In addition to a very disappointing US nonfarm payrolls report, Italy came into the spotlight in the European crisis. Subsequently, the earliest of the June data releases from China look somewhat of a mixed bunch too. China’s CPI came in at the high end of expectations and there was a notable rise in the trade surplus due to soft imports....I had been pretty strongly in the camp that the US recovery had only temporarily stalled during the past couple of months, and that higher food and energy prices, along with the disruption of the Japanese supply chain, were responsible for the softer data. But if Japan is witnessing a bounce back, it should be seen elsewhere too. I can’t see DATA.