Boehner Balking?

Oops. From Washington Wire again: "House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) appears to be balking at the debt ceiling deal that Senate Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada has signed. Mr. Boehner is concerned about provisions in the deal that could lead to sharp cuts in military spending, say people familiar with the situation. House aides have warned that just because Mr. Reid has signed off on the deal doesn’t mean the deal is done." From limit up to limit down in one easy (yet unconfirmed) headline.

 

 

 

Snapshot Summary Of Fluid Compromise Debt Ceiling Deal

With the debt ceiling "compromise" deal still in flux, although at least according to the FX market expected to be approved shortly, despite the protestations of liberal democrats (one wonders if Obama will accuse said group of hostage tactics much as he accused conservative republicans of the same last week), below is what the current shape of the proposed deal looks like courtesy of the WSJ's Washington Wire blog.

Debt ceiling fix could mean problems for states

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago

Does this mean we can't have our cake and eat it too? Headline: Debt ceiling fix could mean problems for states The cost of the compromise needed to raise the federal debt ceiling will likely inflict more fiscal pain on states still struggling to recover from the recession and the end of federal stimulus spending. While the details of the spending cuts to states remain unclear, lawmakers from... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 

First Prints Are In: Risk On, Gold Off... At Least For A Few Minutes

The first prints are in and the relief kneejerk is here, as much expected. ES prints +17 at 1306, USDJPY jumps, although the fade is already there, while the Franc is dripping lower although we expect the same fade to come to it soon. Obviously gold is off, by just about 1% to levels last seen... five days ago.  In other news, a Reuters blast just announced that a Senate vote on a debt deal is "highly unlikely" before Monday, confirming that the market will now have to price in what is effectively becoming TARP 2, with the same potential dire consequences to the market if it is wrong as it was last time around. Overall, we expect the computers to create their self-referential momentum buying sprees until such time as the big boys come in and start offloading the big blocks.





Going Postal

Posted by: Bruce Krasting

Post date: 07/31/2011 - 17:36

Watch for a big cry of, "Success!!" from DC. I think the markets will fade the politician's glee. 

High-Stakes Histrionics

Posted by : ilene

Post date: 07/31/2011 - 17:42

From the televised speeches of Obama and Boehner, to the hard-line tactics of the Tea Party, to the pitiful cobbled-together agreement the House put together late Friday - there has been no shortage...

Guest Post: Deconstructing Algos, Part 4 -Phase Space Reconstructions Of CNTY Busted Trades Suggests High Speed Gang-Bangs In The Market

What is going on here? Is there a single algo? Two duelling algos? Something more? The key difference is the "blocky" character of the last several graphs. That" blockiness" arises in phase space from repeated trades at a single price. The blockiness is absent in the bowl of spaghetti as one entity moved the share price around (was this a test?). The blockiness that followed was the result of numerous followers blasting away at the same price. I think (but cannot prove) that the initial strange behaviour in the share price was noticed by other algos, which began to look for short episodes of volatility in the share price to exploit it for very short term gains. The initial bowl of spaghetti was manipulation from a single algo--a signal (perhaps unintentionally) for other algos. The blocky trajectories are the follow-on gang-bang of the stock as the other algos join in.

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