Credit Suisse: "Debt Ceiling Hike Delay: Market Down 15%; Default: Market Down 30%+"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/28/2011 - 10:33 Bond Budget Deficit CDS Credit Suisse Cyclicality Debt Ceiling default Equity Markets Gross Domestic Product Kraft Recession Risk Premium TARP Tim Geithner In the past week, almost every single sellside bank and their mother has released a report on "what happens to the US if there is a [default|debt extension|compromise|zombie apocalypse (if one believes Tim Geithner)]. Sure enough, here is Credit Suisse with its three scenarios. This is notable as it presents the binary outcomes for the stock markets as a result of what develops in Congress. The scenarios are: i) debt ceiling extension (market up 3%); ii) debt ceiling not extended (market down 15%); iii) default (market plummets by at least 30%). Of course, if there is really is a default it is game over for equity markets but that is a moot point. Either way, any report that has zero mention of the word gold when contemplating the impact of a US default goes straight into the garbage. Such as this one.Those Appalled Haven't Seen Anything Yet
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 16 minutes ago
Capital understands that headline adjectives are often layered. "Appalled" enough to seed the headlines with discontent? Yes. Appalled enough to sell Treasuries? Not yet. Investors that believe bonds can't be sold faster than bad habits at finishing school are likely to be 'appalled' by their price action by 2016. US Treasury Bond 20YR+ (TLT) And US Treasury Bond Diffusion Index... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
Guest Post: Debt Ceiling Dilemma: The Foul Choice Facing Investors
For the record, I still believe that there will not be a breach of the debt ceiling and no overt default for the US. Things will be worked out in the nick of time, like they always are. However, the media is full of articles wondering about what ‘investors’ might do in response to a US default and/or credit downgrade. What will happen to Treasury prices? Will they go down as investors dump them en masse in response to a credit downgrade forcing interest rates to climb? It’s a big question and the most likely answer is “No, not really”. Partly because these so-called investors have been well-conditioned to believe that another bailout is always around the corner, but mainly because they have nowhere to go. The big money is trapped... The Treasury market is the largest and most liquid in the world, by far. For many big money funds there really aren’t any realistic options other than the Treasury market, and this present reality will limit the market reaction to any downgrade.White House Press Briefing Summary On Debt Ceiling
The latest meaningless headlines from White House spokesman Jay Carney:
- CARNEY SAYS NO REASON TO REPEAT DEBT DEBATE LATER THIS YEAR Except for retaining Obama's job of course
- CARNEY SAYS AMERICAN PEOPLE WANT COMPROMISE ON DEBT LIMIT Preferably the democrat compromise which saves a few quadrillion by not launching war on Mars?
- And sure enough there it is: CARNEY SAYS REID PROPOSAL REPRESENTS COMPROMISE
- CARNEY SAYS SENATE WILL REJECT BOEHNER DEBT PROPOSAL
- CARNEY SAYS TREASURY WILL EXPLAIN HOW IT WILL MANAGE FINANCES
- CARNEY SAYS BOEHNER PLAN VOTE WILL NOT LEAD TO COMPROMISE
- CARNEY SAYS CONGRESS `CONTROLS OUR FATE' ON DEBT LIMIT
- CARNEY SAYS ONGOING DEBATE HAS HAD NEGATIVE IMPACT ON ECONOMY
- CARNEY SAYS `NO QUESTION' BOEHNER PROPOSAL IS `POLITICAL ACT'
Guest Post: "Whatever It Takes"
During 2008, traitors like Hank Paulson were able to con most of us by saying that we risked a destruction of the financial system as an excuse to give the banksters and their allies a blank check. The con wasn’t in the notion that the financial system risked implosion as I believe that statement was most likely true. The con was that since most Americans don’t have a clue how the financial system works they merely became scared and reflexively agreed in their own minds that “well of course the financial system must be saved.” I on the other hand argue that the financial system is a ponzi scheme that enriches only the three enshrined parasite classes that dominate America today. The TBTF Wall Street banks, the military industrial complex and the politicians and lobbyists in D.C. that line their pockets. Everyone else gets sucked dry. I have spent the last three years of my life writing about this so that people understand when the next major crisis happens who is to blame and more importantly I want to instill in people the courage to look outside of this immoral money system to something that can move us forward when this one gets dismantled. I do not claim to have the answers I am just trying to get people to ask the right questions and get educated on how things operate. We the People must own the debate or it will own us.Football Legend Cristiano Ronaldo To Be Used As ECB Collateral
We were pretty much speechless when we read this - it sure puts guarantees by Noyer, Trichet and all the other bureaumonkeys that the ECB does not accept just any collateral in perspective. From Presseurop.eu: "The most expensive footballer in history may now be used to guarantee the solvency of a Spanish bank. “Ronaldo in the bailout fund,” headlines Süddeutsche Zeitung. The daily reports that the Bankia group of savings banks, which financed Real Madrid’s acquisition of the Portuguese player, is now seeking to borrow funds from the European Central Bank. In response to the ECB’s demand for guarantees, Bankio are putting up… Ronaldo and the Brazilian Kaka, who also plays for the Madrid football club. In 2009, Real borrowed 76.5 million euros to pay transfer fees of 100 millions euros to Manchester United, and 60 million to Milan AC."Petition the Inspector General: Investigate Attorney General Bondi’s Firings of June Clarkson and Theresa Edwards
07/28/2011 - 07:23
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