Ron Paul: "America's AAA Rating Not Worth Saving" Because "We Are Insolvent" 

The man who yesterday got into a heated argument with the chairsatan on whether gold is or isn't money (a Bernanke response already mocked to death so we will leave it alone), shares his take on the most recent bout of scaremongering by Moody's (with S&P doing in private today what Moody's did in public yesterday) with Bloomberg TV's Erik Schatzker. When asked if the American AAA rating is worth saving, his reply: "probably not. I think if you had a market evaluation on this issue, it should have marked down a long time ago." The reason the downgrade will come regardless is that "ultimately that is going to happen anyway because we are insolvent." The big picture: "I think it is part of the game to make sure everyone is fearful so we continue this process. Long term, I think raising the debt limit is a negative because it delays the inevitable. It will give us much bigger problems down the road. Today and tomorrow, if Moody's does not lower the bond rating, it will be helpful in the short run. In the long run, it will be more devastating because Congress will go back to their old habits again." Said otherwise: Moody's is concerned about US debt now, but is not concerned if US were more tomorrow - sheer idiocy.

Gold Targets $1600 Per Ounce - New Nominal Record, Silver Surges 9% in 24 Hours as Dollars Falls 

Gold has risen to new record nominal highs at $1,594.45 per ounce and silver has surged another 3% to over $39 per ounce after yesterday’s 6% rise. Today’s London AM Fix gold fix was $1,592.50 £987.54 and €1,119.04 – all of which are new record nominal highs. European stock markets are lower after Asian equity markets were mixed overnight with the Nikkei falling 0.27%. European debt markets are under pressure this morning with Spanish and Italian bond yields rising towards 6% again. Ireland’s 10 year and 2 year yields spiked to new record highs at 14.13% and 20.9% prior to sharp falls which had the hallmarks of sovereign intervention - possibly the ECB or China. The U.S. had its Aaa bond rating placed on review for possible downgrade by Moody’s which cited the “rising possibility” that the debt limit won’t be raised on a timely basis. U.S. treasuries have also been sold this morning. Concerns that QE3 and the printing and electronic creation of hundreds of billions of dollars and Obama’s walkout from debt ceiling negotiations is not helping dollar and bond market jitters and has led to the record dollar gold price.

California Runs Out Of Money Again, Comes Begging To Wall Street As Moody's Threatens To Go Nuclear On Muni Market 

First New Jersey, now California. The cash-strapped state, which begged for, and got, a "bridge" loan from JP Morgan as recently as October 2010 (the same bank that recently bailed out Chris Christie), is asking for another bridge to the old bridge loan, ergo a "bridge bridge" loan. The excuse: the potential upcoming government shutdown, which would lock California out of the muni market. Surely the fact that it already has little to no cash left was not a part of the equation. BusinessWeek reports: "California is considering seeking a bridge loan from Wall Street ahead of an Aug. 2 deadline for raising the federal debt ceiling, in case talks fail and send the bond market into turmoil, Treasurer Bill Lockyer said. Proceeds from the loan would be used to help pay the state’s bills until Lockyer can sell an estimated $5 billion of so-called revenue-anticipation notes, or RANs, scheduled for late August. Without those notes, the state could run out of cash as it did in 2009, when it issued $2.6 billion of IOUs." Of course if the US is downgraded, Meredith Whitney's prediction will come true with a bang: as part of its warning yesterday, Moody's also threatened to downgrade 7000 municipal ratings which would halt RAN, and any other, issuance for an indefinite period of time. And while this is merely more M.A.D. posturing to help the debt ceiling dispute come to a speedy resolution, the fact that California is now forced to issue new bridge loans to "bridge" old ones is oddly troubling.

Bernanke Does Senate: Day Two Of The Chairman's Humphrey Hawkins Testimony 

Bernanke's prepared remarks to Senate in the second day of the bi-annual presentation monetary policy presentation will be identical to those from yesterday. The only difference will come in teh Q&A, which is not so much Q&A as political grandstanding by a bunch of muppets. For those who wish to listen as QE3 is priced in for the third time in as many days, and express other masochistic tendencies, tune in to the C-SPAN webcast below. 

QE3 Off? Bernanke Says Fed Not Prepared To Take Action At This Point 

When in doubt, baffle them with male cow manure: Bernanke Says Fed Not Prepared to Take Action at This Point, but, Bernanke Says Recovery 'Still Rather Fragile'. Is Bernanke finally channelling his inner Greenspan. Oh, and just in case the Moody's threat was missed, Bernanke adds that a US default would trigger a crisis and would lead to "chaos." Will someone just give the president a three-page termsheet already. 

Visualizing Market Topology: Video Of Real-Time Exchange Routing 

A dramatic video that shows precisely what happens in the fragmented market place each time an order to buy or sell stock is placed. 

Here Is The Reason For JPM's Negligible Litigation Reserve: You 

For all those asking, there is just one little footnote that explains all you need to know why "JP Morgan is not Bank of America"

  

Bob Janjuah's Latest Big Picture Outlook 

The bond vigilantes did their job with respect to Italy. While Greece, Portugal and Ireland are, in my opinion, insolvent nations that need debt relief or restructuring, it seems clear to me that the market does not want to attack Italy out of any speculative spite. As long as the sensible fiscal policies of the last decade are further built upon, I am confident Italy can exit the eurozone debt crisis in acceptable health...Although I think the current risk-off phase could last a little longer in the very short term, for the latter half of July and heading into August I am bullish and favour another risk-on phase. In this coming risk-on phase I expect to see over late July and August my S&P targets are 1350/1370, with a possibility of a bigger move to 1440. And 1250/1220 S&P remain my bear alert levels. Over a Multi-Week/Multi-Quarter horizon, I remain bearish and risk-off, as outlined in my previous note. I have high conviction on this call. 

Summarizing Today's Economic Data Barrage 

Today's economic data barrage:

• Initial claims at 405K, better than consensus 415K. This number is probably totally bogus due to next week's imminent revision much higher: last week's number was revised from 418K to a whopping 427K; 4 week moving average 423.8K; Driver likely lack of auto plant shutdowns, says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas
• Non seasonally adjusted claims up 45K to 470K
• Continuing Claims 3,727K vs. Exp. 3,680K. And another massive reivision higher: previous at 3681K, revised to 3712K.
• The Unemployed on EUCs and Extended Benefits continue declining, down 16K in the week ended June 25
• PPI in June fell 0.4% M/m vs est. 0.2% decline (range 0.6% drop to 0.3% rise) - biggest drop since February 2010; PPI ex. food, energy up 0.3% vs est. 0.2% gain (range 0.1%-0.3%); Less threatening inflation situation’’ helps Fed if they have any thoughts of QE3, says Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone
• June Advance Retail Sales up 0.1% vs est. 0.1% drop (range 0.7% decline to 0.5% gain); Ex. autos unchanged, matching est. (range 0.8% drop to 0.5% gain); Ex. autos and gas up 0.2% vs est. 0.4% gain (range 0.1%-0.8% rise); Unexpected rise in motor vehicles, parts likely behind increase in headline; may be “somewhat suspicious,” says Brusuelas

Some Perspective On Italian Bonds 

Italy may not be Greece, but its important to remember that Greece wasn't Greece just 15 months ago. It seems like we have been talking about the problems in Greece for ages, but the reality is the market let them price a big "successful" bond deal in March of last year. While it is important to remember that the Troika has shown great support for sovereign debt, its also important to remember the market got it horribly wrong last year. 

 

 

 

 

 

Germany's Lars Feld Urges ECB To Agree To Greek Restructuring 

Well over a month after predicting the second Greek "bailout" plan was just hot air, we are not only back to square minus one but heading backward. And while the market's attention is now focused on Italy, and soon Spain and Belgium, the weakest link still is Greece, whose bankruptcy, despite all the posturing may be coming sooner than most expect. It appears that Germany is once again in the renegade drivers' seat and has reverted to its core plan of taking its chances with a Greek default, breaking away from the ECB's position, and ultimately saying let the chips fall where they may. To wit, from Market News: "Lars Feld, a member of the German government's Council of Independent Economic Advisers, on Thursday criticized the European Central Bank for blocking a restructuring of Greek debt."