Thursday, August 27, 2015

JPM Head Quant Warns Second Market Crash May Be Imminent: Violent Selling Could Return On Thursday




"Price insensitive" flows are starting to materialize, and our goal is to estimate their likely size and timing. These technical flows are determined by algorithms and risk limits, and can hence push the market away from fundamentals.  The obvious risk is if these technical flows outsize fundamental buyers. In the current environment of low liquidity, they may cause a market crash such as the one we saw at the US market open on Monday"

Bill Holter: Something Snapped and The Fed has Lost Control

from The Daily Coin:
With the equity markets in turmoil, China devaluing the Yuan, again, on to of selling $100 BILLION in Treasuries in the last week, it seemed like a good time to speak with Bill Holter, Holter-Sinclair Collaboration to get his take on just what the heck is going on.
Mr. Holter has one of the coolest jobs in the world. Not only does he get to analyze what is happening with gold, silver, commodities and equity markets gets to discuss ideas and his analysis with Mr. Gold, Jim Sinclair.
The global GDP pie is no longer growing and it’s probably shrinking and we are in this currency war at this point where trade nations are racing, fighting each other to devalue their currency the fastest to keep their slice of the pie the same size or bigger.
Read More


Margin Calls Mount On Loans Against Stock Portfolios Used To Buy Homes, Boats, "Pretty Much Everything"


"In a securities-based loan, the customer pledges all or part of a portfolio of stocks, bonds, mutual funds and/or other securities as collateral. But unlike traditional margin loans, in which the client uses the credit to buy more securities, the borrowing is for other purchases such as real estate, a boat or education..." The result was "dangerously high margin balances,' - the products became “the vehicle of choice for investors looking to get cash for anything.” Mr. Sica and others say the products were aggressively marketed to investors by banks and brokerages.



Air Conditioner Failure At CenturyLink Data Center Takes ITG Dark Pool Offline

NEW JERSEY DATA CENTER WHERE ITG OPERATES HAS HVAC ISSUE
ITG SHUTDOWN INCLUDES POSIT DARK POOL
ITG SAYS IT WON'T BE TRADING FOR REMAINDER OF DAY







Art Collectors Pawn Masterpieces To Meet Market Rout Margin Calls

“Ten years ago no one in the art market paid close attention to these corrections in the stock market. Now clients respond immediately."



VIX ETF Surges After Serious Short Squeeze For 5th Day In A Row

That's what happens Larry when you have 64.08mm shares short against 59.5mm shares outstanding... and traders read this (and the VIX is stuck in backwardation).







China Exclaims "We Were Wronged" - Demands Fed Delay Rate Hike, Reiterates Blame For Market Rout

"China's exchange rate reform had nothing to do with the global stock market volatility, it was mainly due to the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy move," Yao said. "We were wronged."

Jim Grant: The Fed Turned the Stock Market Into a ‘Hall of Mirrors’

from The Victory Report:




Rutgers University Warns Students - "There Is No Such Thing As Free Speech"

"Things have changed since I started teaching. The vibe is different. I wish there were a less blunt way to put this, but my students sometimes scare me - particularly the liberal ones....The idea that institutions must acknowledge wrongdoing is central to academic work."
BINGO. This is so essential to a functioning, ethical society, and is something that never happens in modern America. Ever.



"It's Just A Correction!"

It's healthy... good for you... like broccoli?





Who Will Be The Bagholders This Time Around?

Anyone betting China's GDP is really expanding at 7% and the U.S. economy will grow by 3.7% next quarter is angling to be a bagholder. Once global assets roll over for good, it's important to recall that somebody owns these assets all the way down. These owners are called bagholders, as in "left holding the bag." Those running the rigged casino have to select the bagholders in advance, lest some fat-cat cronies inadvertently get stuck with losses.



Chinese Man Jumps From 17th Floor In First Stock Market Casualty

It appears the collapse of China's stock market has officially taken its first victim. While we have heard from desperate farmers who lost everything after realizing that making money in stocks is not easier than farmwork, RT reports that a 57-year-old man has allegedly committed suicide in Shenyang, the largest city in Liaoning Province, by jumping off the 17th floor of a building with a black briefcase "full of stock-related materials," local press reported.



Media Blackout: Canada Plans To Dump Nuclear Waste Less Than Mile From US Border

Over the last few years, the United States has not had the best track record with Deep Geologic Repositories (DGR) for nuclear waste. In February of 2014, the U.S.’ DGR, known as the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), had two separate incidents that compromised the integrity of the project by releasing airborne radioactive contamination. While most U.S. citizens were relatively unaffected by the events, our Canadian neighbors have proposed a plan to construct a DGR 0.6 miles from America’s largest source of fresh water, the Great Lakes — and the U.S. State Department is remaining relatively uninvolved.



No Weakness Here : 7 Year Auction Stops Through, Highest Bid To Cover Since November

If the last two auctions, the 2 and 5 Year, were both wildly disappointing and confirmed what we had said that foreign central banks are no longer a strong demand presence in the short-end, today's 7 Year was a welcome surprise to anyone who is holding on to Treasury longs. Moments ago the 7 Year When Issued was trading at 1.939%, so when the 1.930% high yield print hit the tape, longs everywhere collectively exhaled in approval observing the 0.9 bps stop through.  The internals were likewise strong, with the Bid to Cover of 2.526 highest since November's 2.635, as Indirects kept their take down flat, absorbing 50.84% of the auction as Directs took down 14.15%, the highest since January, leaving 35.00% to the Dealers.



VIX Backwardation Continues - It's Not Over Yet

While oil prices are surging (global economic meltdown averted), stocks are back in the green on the week (crisis averted), and bonds are collapsing (not because of China selling according to the mainstream because "everything is awesome" again), we point traders' attention to the continued inversion in the VIX term structure. While well off the peak crisis levels, we have a long way to go to "normalized" levels of risk...



HFTs Are Overheating: CenturyLink Reports "Catastrophic" HVAC Failure At NJ2 Data Center, Starting "Safe Shut Down"

If today's ridiculous move is the kind that no retail investors would chase, it is precisely what HFTs around the globe love: nothing but momentum, momentum, momentum. In fact, HFTs are trading so much, they are literally overheating!



USDJPY Explodes 500 Pips From Monday Lows

Wondering why the world's risk assets are all exploding higher... wonder no more. JPY - funding currency of choice for many leveraged traders - has been monkey-hammered 500 pips lower against the USD in the last few days with the last 24 hours, since Kuroda unleashed his comedy gold last night, seeing another 150 pips surge...



Former Greek FinMin Varoufakis Launches Pan-European Anti-Austerity Political Party

Varoufakis’ fans get ready! The ex finance minister is preparing to launch a European movement that will develop into a political party. Yanis Varoufakis will push for a Pan-?uropean network to fight austerity. Instead of running for the upcoming elections, he will put his energy into political action on European level.



For Albert Edwards This Is The One Definitive Measure That "We Are Now In A Bear Market"

Over the years, Socgen's Albert Edwards has repeatedly expressed his skepticism of both the economy and the market (the longest US equity "bull market" since 1945) both propped up by generous central banks injecting liquidity by the tens of trillions (at this point nobody really knows the number now that the 'black box' that is China has entered the global "plunge protection" game) and yet never did he have as "conclusive" a call as he does today. As the following note reveals, when looking at one particular indicator, Edwards is now convinced: 'we are now in a bear market."

URGENT! A MAJOR STOCK MARKET CRASH IS JUST WEEKS AWAY

from GregoryMannarino:


Silver Is Soaring









A Nation Divided - Northeast Happiest In 8 Years As MidWest Comfort Collapses

Presented with little comment, aside to ask why is Bloomberg "Consumer Comfort" for The NorthEast region at its highest in 8 years, when The Midwest region's "Comfort" is plunging to its lowest since Nove 2014?



S&P 500 Surges 5.9% - Biggest 2-Day Spike Since Fed Announced QE1

The 5.9% rise in the last 2 days is the largest for the S&P 500 since March 11th 2009 - when The Fed announced QE1...



Kansas City Fed Survey Misses For 8th Straight Month - Flashes Recessionary Signal

The last two times the Kansas City Fed survey was this low, the US was in recession.The KC Fed survey has missed expected for eight straight months, falling to -9 in August from -7 (missing the -4 estimate). Across the board, underlying components were ugly with Shipments collapsing, Order backlogs echoing earlier surveys in demise, New Orders tumbling, and Prices received crashing.

Bad News For Hillary, Poll Shows Joe Biden Would Fare Better In National Election





An Unprecedented Shift in The Oil-Dollar Correlation Regime

WTI Crude just surged from $38.50 to over $41 and at the same time the USD Index has been surging. In fact, the correlation regime between these two seemingly negatively correlated assets has entirely shifted since last week's FOMC Statement.



Bears Are "Covering" Everywhere, Especially Here

In a well-worn tradition, where it takes one cover to offset a cover, here is Bloomberg Businessweek's latest, which shows that bears were were "covering" everywhere in the market yesterday (and continue to do so today), and certainly on the front page of the latest issue of Bloomberg's publication.



Pending Home Sales Miss, NAR Says Stock Plunge Is Good For Housing Affordability

The biggest surprise in today's NAR release came from the following Larry Yun statement: "Uncertainty in the equity markets — even if the Fed raises short-term rates in September — could stabilize long-term mortgage rates and preserve affordability for buyers." So with China, Larry Summer and the IMF now calling for a rate hike, the NAR - of all entities - is suddenly quite happy to see the recent market rout continue, which would keep rates lower and promote "affordability." Guess nobody tell Larry that China has now started dumping bonds.



If You Doubted The Central Bankers' Brave New World, You Were Right

Ben Bernanke and his cohort central bankers built a Brave New World (SOMA, SOMA, SOMA!) where central bank money printing would boost stock prices and the wealth created would trickle down to workers and cause a booming economy. If you doubted that, you are now seeing proof that maybe this world was a little bit of Lewis Carroll’s Alice in Wonderland along with the Aldous Huxley.

Obama Administration’s Direct Connection and Material Support for Known Terrorists Intent on Destroying America

by Dave Hodges, The Common Sense Show:
Why does Lois Lerner, the head of the IRS, and Hillary Clinton need an e-mail address while using a fake identity? The only answer that makes any sense is that they are both involved in criminal activities that they need to “keep off of the books”. Secondly, the fact that the attempted concealment of the Lerner and Clinton emails was being handled in the sam manner is not a coincidence. Whoever, created the attempted cover for Lerner, also created the identical strategy for Clinton. This means that Clinton and Lerner’s criminal behaviors are linked.
Please visit this link from Mr. Shoebat’s article which shows to images which clearly proves the IRS Director, Lois Lerner, has used an alias when dealing with classified as well as engaging in illegal activities (e.g. Tea Party harassment) and Lerner’s signature is at the bottom of an United States tax exempt foundation request for terrorist Malick Obama, the President’s half brother, who is in charge of finance and arms procurement for the Muslim Brotherhood.
Read More

How the Federal Reserve Helped Cause a Homeless Epidemic

from The Daily Sheeple:

One of the strangest phenomenons of the past decade, is the decreasing rates of homelessness across the United States. Despite the housing bubble crash, the devastating recession that followed, and stagnate wages, the number of people living on the streets in America has fallen in recent years. However, this hasn’t been the case across the board. In some cities and states homelessness is rapidly increasing, and the reasons why don’t bode well for our nation’s financial future.
Take Los Angeles for instance. A recent study found that 13,000 people in LA County fall into homelessness every month, which is a dramatic increase from previous years.
Read More

The Trump/Sanders Phenomena – Robert Parry

from The News Doctors:
Exclusive: The prospect of another competition between the Clinton and Bush dynasties has sent activists from across the political spectrum searching for someone new – and leading to the unlikely emergence of unorthodox candidates, billionaire Donald Trump and socialist Bernie Sanders, writes Robert Parry.
As outlandish as Donald Trump is as a presidential candidate, it’s pretty obvious why he’s topping the polls of Republican voters: he’s tipping over the carts of “politics as usual” that Americans understandably hate. In a much more responsible way, Bernie Sanders is doing the same with Democratic voters though he’s still trailing Hillary Clinton in most polls.
Read More

All Out Warfare On Political Correctness

from The Sleuth Journal:
The bastion of Totalitarian Collectivism is based upon a culture of political correctness. Before authoritarians impose their rigid formulas for shaping and defining a false reality, the ground needs to be prepared for molding public opinion. The details and narrative of mind control works best when people have already adopted an urbanity of collective singularity. The nature of “TC” is the next level beyond political correctness.
Peer pressure may be expected during school adolescence but part of growing up requires a level of maturity to distinguish between facts, moral conduct and social values arrived at through sound and rigorous intellectual scrutiny. The primary source of mental malady comes out of media. As the media covers their daily inventions from papier-mâché substance from toilet paper sagas the public sinks deeper into the fog of war. The conflict that pervades the minds of the remaining rational thinkers becomes a struggle for survival.
Read More

Global Markets to Fed: No Rate Hike, the Strong Dollar Is Killing Us

from Washington’s Blog:
There are many reasons for global markets to melt down, but one that doesn’t get enough attention is the strong dollar. In effect, global markets are telling the Federal Reserve: don’t raise rates–the strong dollar is killing us.
Here’s the dynamic that’s killing emerging markets’ currencies and stocks, the China Story and U.S. corporate profits. In the glory years of a declining U.S. dollar (USD), a vast global carry trade emerged as speculators borrowed money in USD and invested it in high-yield emerging market assets such as stocks, bonds and real estate.
Read More

Where is Neo When We Need Him

from Paul Craig Roberts:
In The Matrix in which Americans live, nothing is ever their fault. For example, the current decline in the US stock market is not because years of excessive liquidity supplied by the Federal Reserve have created a bubble so overblown that a mere six stocks, some of which have no earnings commiserate with their price, accounted for more than all of the gain in market capitalization in the S&P 500 prior to the current disruption.
In our Matrix existence, the stock market decline is not due to corporations using their profits, and even taking out loans, to repurchase their shares, thus creating an artificial demand for their equity shares.
Read More
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