Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 13:51 "The PBoC’s actions are equivalent to an unwind of QE, or in other words Quantitative Tightening. The potential for more China outflows is huge [and] the bottom line is that QT has much more to go. It is hard to become very optimistic on global risk appetite until a solution is found to China’s evolving QT."
Venezuela seems to be hovering on the edge of tipping into hyperinflation. Or perhaps it has already fallen into the abyss. Given the paucity of official data — the none-too-believable official figures were last published in February — it’s a little hard to tell. The best guess we have at the value of a Venezuelan bolivar comes from the Colombian village of Cucuta, where people go to buy currency so they can smuggle subsidized fuel and other price-controlled goods out of Venezuela. As The Economist notes: “Transactions are few; the dollar rate is calculated indirectly, from the value of the Colombian peso. The result is erratic, but more realistic than the three official rates.”
Using those rates, economist Steve Hanke recently told Bloomberg that annual cost-of-living increases are running at about 722 percent. To put that in some perspective, it means that a $400 monthly grocery bill would climb to $2,888 in a year. That may not approach the legendary status of Hungary’s postwar inflation, which reached 41.9 quadrillion percent in a single month, but it’s devastating for savers, or for people like pensioners whose incomes consist of fixed payments. It’s also pretty bad for the economy.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 22:55 It is undeniable; the final collapse triggers are upon us, triggers alternative economists have been warning about since the initial implosion of 2008. You would think that the more obvious the economic collapse becomes, the more alternative analysts will be vindicated and the more awake and aware the average person will be. Not necessarily... In fact, the mainstream spin machine is going into high speed the more negative data is exposed and absorbed into the markets. If you know your history, then you know that this is a common tactic by the establishment elite to string the public along with false hopes so that they do not prepare or take alternative measures while the system crumbles around their ears. At the onset of the Great Depression the same strategies were used.
Yesterday he tweeted some surprising advice in response to the plunge in global equities markets....
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 22:30 Our form of government today allows revolution (theoretically) through the ballot box rather than on the battlefield. But nonetheless, the message for our political elites today is much the same as it was in 1776: They ignore the people’s contempt at their own risk.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 22:00 While most of the world will be hoping the following chart never (ever) mean-reverts to its previous historically devastating highs, there is one group that is 'banking' on it... The Military-Industrial Complex...
Traditionally, people across the globe have used gold as a hedging instrument against inflation, primarily because the demand and consequently value of gold increased along with inflation. Therefore, gold proved to be an excellent standard for establishing a relationship between different monetary currencies. The new world led to US dollar becoming a stable currency and consequently there was more demand for it. This demand increased its value, and it became a new unwritten standard, dethroning gold.
Gold, however, did not lose its sheen. The only thing that had changed was how it was measured. Now, it was gold ounce that was being measured in dollars. Obviously, if more dollars were to be paid for less gold, it was gold that had the upper hand. Vice versa, if fewer dollars fetched more gold for the investor, it was a dollar that was more valuable. Effectively, the inverse relationship between gold and dollar began at this point.
Tucked away in a dark corner of one of the largest, fanciest veterans memorial cemeteries we have ever seen is a little plot of under a hundred crudely carved graves only marked with a name and a cross, no birth or death info.
These belonged to people who lived and died in The Ladd School, once an institute for the “feeble minded” during the eugenics era. Founded in 1908, the institution’s forefather, Dr. Walter Fernald, “was a famous eugenicist whose doctrine was to remove the feeble-minded from society in an effort to cleanse the nation’s population of inferior and ‘defective’ genes.” It was a place they put people (and especially kids) that were deemed otherwise unfit for society to segregate them, ensure they would not reproduce, and ultimately forget about them. The developmentally disabled, promiscuous teens, unwed mothers, alcoholics, the poor, you name it… Once in, they were left there for life. It was finally shut down in 1993 following decades of scandals due to overcrowding and reports of abuse. After visiting the grounds of the now demolished school, we decided to pay our respects to those who died there at this small unmarked cemetery plot
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 17:33 You can't say Nassim Taleb didn't warn you: the outspoken academic-philosopher, best known for his prediction that six sigma "fat tail", or black swan, events happen much more frequently than they should statistically (perhaps a main reason why there is no longer a market but a centrally-planned cesspool of academic intervention) just had a black swan land smack in the middle of the Universa hedge fund founded by ardent Ron Paul supporter Mark Spitznagel, and affiliated with Nassim Taleb. The result: a $1 billion payday, translating into a 20% YTD return, in a week when the VIX exploded from the teens to over 50, and which most other hedge funds would love to forget.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 21:30 ...as soon as credit expansion stops, the piper must be paid, and the inevitable readjustments must liquidate the unsound overinvestments of the boom and redirect the economy. And, of course, the longer the boom is kept going, the greater the malinvestments that must be liquidated, and the more harrowing the readjustments that must be made.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 21:00 Late last year, Saudi Arabia "Plaxico'd" itself and the petrodollar when, in an effort to "preserve market share" and bankrupt US shale producers, the kingdom endeavored to purposefully suppress crude prices. Nine months and billions in liquidated FX reserves later, Saudi Arabia is facing a budget crisis of epic proportions.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 20:30 The United States lags far behind other developed countries in terms of personal, civil and economic freedoms, according to a study released this month. Its neighbor to the north, for example, ranked 14 spots ahead of the so-called “Land of the Free.”
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 20:00 Great news - Californians have managed to reduce water usage by 31% in July, surpassing the mandated 25% reduction amid the worst drought in centuries. However, this dramatic reduction is in now way thanks to local government in Los Angeles, where, as Daily News reports, the majority of LA County supervisors have their take-home cars washed two or three times a week, service records show, and actually washed them more frequently than before Governor Brown's orders. Once again - do as I say, not as I do!
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 19:30 People have their hopes and dreams tied on a quarter of a percent. That’s how ridiculous things have become. People are so horrified that if money isn’t absolutely free that all hell will break loose—that people are going to go broke, the market’s going to crash, and that there won’t be any jobs. That’s a pretty sad state of affairs, and it is by no stretch of the imagination the foundation for a free and prosperous nation. It is the height of central planning and it is a form of economic tyranny.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 19:00 "There’s no flying beams of light, no 'pew! pew!' sound effects. But it is nonetheless a working laser cannon, and it will take your drone down."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 18:30 Recent polls indicate that, despite public outcry against his incendiary comments on women and minorities, Donald Trump is still the leading Republican candidate. Here are some reasons Trump stays so popular with his supporters...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 18:00
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 17:00 You know what they say: when it rains it pours, especially when you’re the poster child for an epic emerging market unwind and you’re suffering through the worst inflation-growth outcome in over a decade while trying to combat dual deficits and ward off political and social upheaval.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 16:30 "You take the blue pill, the story ends. You wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes." - Morpheus, The Matrix
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 16:06
Submitted by RANSquawk Video on 08/28/2015 - 15:52
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 15:50 Presented with no comment...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 15:30 Many were stunned at the pace of the v-shaped recovery in US equity markets this week after Monday and Tuesday's carnage. However, as the following chart makes very clear, there was good reason for it... Having overshot to the downside of "Fed-Balance-Sheet-Implied" levels but around 100 S&P points, the broad index ripped back higher to almost perfectly settle at "Fed Fair Value" - between 1980 and 2000. But, there is a rather ominous event occuring in 2016 that is out of The Fed's control that implies S&P 1,800 unless QE4 is unleashed.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 15:08 In the midst of turmoil among asset classes, investors tend to make irrational decisions, such as panicking and liquidating at inopportune times. Nobel Prize-winning Psychologist Daniel Kahneman helps explain ill-conceived reactions to the market with his concept of loss aversion. That’s the fear and feelings of loss surpass the joy one may receive from a similarly sized potential gain. In order to frame this discussion of volatility, we dug up old surveys of institutional and individual investors that recorded their responses to the 1987 market crash
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 14:50 Hint: think Treasurys, oil, and renminbi...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 14:35 Two years ago, when we first profiled Japan's mysterious "Mister Watanabe" daytrader - aka CIS - we thought it may just all be a hoax. But, as his claims this week that he made $34 million trading the panic on Monday - "I do my best work when other people are panicking," Bloomberg reports, CIS - who claims JPY20bn AUM, has become a cult figure among Japan’s tight-knit community of day traders. Notorious for lines like "Not even Goldman Sachs can beat me in a trade," CIS drops some knowledge this week on how he has become so successful... "Buy stocks that are being bought, and sell stocks that are being sold." Just don't tell Cramer.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 14:26 Last night we heard the best 'excuse' yet if you are caught with an Ashley Madison account, from Dan Loeb - "due diligence." Today, not to be outdone by a married hedge fund manager, Vice-President Joe Biden's son "Hunter" has unleashed his own set of excuses for member ship of the extramarital affairs website, as Breitbart reports - Biden thinks international agents, possibly Russian, who objected to his board membership with a Ukrainian gas company set up a fake account to discredit him. However, IP mapping suggests otherwise...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 - 14:23 It goes until the “big one” shows up “out of nowhere” because everyone studiously ignores these events as if they can’t possibly be what they so obviously are: continued warnings. It is impossible to say what the final turn will be, as you can’t predict the level of “necessary” liquidations going too far because liquidity supply is totally hidden and derivative. The fact that one central bank after another continues to fall victim to the same connecting degeneration is cause for still deeper pause and reassessment, but that isn’t any fun for the bull bubble and the “easy money” mindset. In any case, when the yen functions as the last resort bid of safety, you can pretty well assess just how messed up everything got – and start to make some determination about just how close to the precipice.
That big so-called rally at the market close yesterday was not a rally but a short squeeze. That’s when the hedge funds that have put on short positions size up the amount of stock for sale at the close of trading and, if the amount is light, they decide to close out their short positions by buying stock to cover. On Tuesday, there was approximately $3.5 billion in orders to sell at the close, resulting in the late day selloff. Yesterday, there was only about $500 million to sell, making it risky to hold short positions, thus the short squeeze driving the Dow up 619 points at the close.
When you shop for produce and see that higher price placed on the organic varieties, chances are you think there probably isn’t that much difference between the two. Surely conventional agriculture doesn’t waste chemicals. They only use them when they need to – when insects or fungus attacks the corps, right? Wrong.
Conventional produce has been through a storm of chemical treatments. The use of chemicals is so insidious, it often begins with treating the dirt and the seeds before planting. Then chemical fertilizers are used in addition to insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides during cultivation. Some fruits have been tested to find 13-15 different pesticides remain after harvesting. Now a new practice is being employed – pre-harvest desiccation. Crops are drenched with an herbicide prior to harvest to hasten and even out ripening and to control weeds for the next crop.
The Money GPS:
The Miles Franklin Blog’s primary goal is to encourage long-term thinking, regarding the “big picture” of what’s going on in the global economy and financial markets. However, as we are currently amidst one of the most chaotic trading environments of our lifetimes – certainly, since the 2008-09 crisis – it’s difficult to avoid discussion of what’s going on each trading day. I do my best to tackle both areas – as readers’ need to have a few of market movements to create a comprehensive “mosaic” of “what’s going on.” Moreover, given the recent desperation of “manipulation operatives” mandated with “stabilizing” markets – and more importantly, maintaining the cancerous, fiat currency-dominated status quo – it’s particularly relevant to observe how “successful” their efforts have been. Or lately, haven’t.
Before I get to the past few days’ (largely unsuccessful) efforts to delay the “unstoppable tsunami of reality” with all-out, unabashed support of “favored” markets like stocks; and equally blatant efforts to suppress “public enemies” like gold and silver; I’m going to prove, unequivocally, what we have said all along.
MEveryone is feeling good about themselves as the rebound in stocks continues. It is fair to say that all markets closed between 2–3% higher on the day. After solid gains in Asia, Europe opened on a firmer note and the U.S. followed. We did have a wobble mid-afternoon trade, but the final 90 minutes recouped the intraday drought and made new ground.
The rally in oil (over 10% TWI) was encouraging on the back of the better than expected Q2 GDP (3.7%) against expectations of 3.5%. The spread TWI/Brent closed on the day $4.70. Gold drifted in Thursday trade, but is finding some support in Asia this Friday morning on rumors of renewed Chinese interest. Word on the street is that a small piece of Chinese reserves has moved out of U.S. bonds as they sell into the rally.
It’s safe to say that most of the world is riveted by the news pouring out of the major (and minor) stock markets. Record declines followed by near-record spikes — besides being disorienting for anyone with a preferred direction — are uncomfortably reminiscent of early 2008 when volatility in pretty much every asset class soared, soon to be followed by an epic crash and the deepest recession since the 1930s.
Is this that again? Who knows, but when the Big One does arrive, its first week will probably feel a lot like this. So, happy watching.
In episode 9 of Red List News, Dave “goes deep” with newly released, explosive evidence of more dastardly, and criminal, deeds by the soon to be indicted, Hillary Clinton. In a story with an ironic twist, Jim covers Saudi Arabia and the financial calamity that they face over falling oil prices; a phenomenon that they helped to create. Outright tyranny is exposed next as Dave outlines the plan for the end of our Second Amendment by means of the Corker Bill. Continuing with the theme of tyranny, Jim then covers the proposal to have TSA on commercial trains. In our final two reports, Dave zeroed in on the Chinese collapse and Jim outlines the domestic disaster training at Fort Bragg.
When you’re right — you’re right.
Donald Trump says the fatal shooting of two journalists on live televisionshould not be seen as another example of America’s problem with gun violence.
“This isn’t a gun problem — this is a mental problem,” Trump said on CNN’s “New Day” on Thursday, a day after WDBJ-TV reporter Alison Parker and her cameraman, Adam Ward, were killed in Virginia by a gunman who was fired from the station in 2013. “It’s not a question of the laws. It’s really the people.”
Silver prices have been crushed for over 4 years, especially in the paper futures markets. The predictable result has been reduced interest in real money – silver and gold. The media is more focused on Donald Trump, Caitlyn Jenner, and Hillary’s emails – not the reality of exponentially increasing debt, out-of-control spending, failed economic policies, and expensive wars.
Does anyone care that silver and gold have been real money and a store of value for 3,000 years, or that all unbacked paper money has eventually been inflated into worthlessness? While the central bankers and politicians distract the populace with Donald Trump stories, they prolong the game … and the wealth transfers.
A few years ago, we opined that Bernanke and his ilk created a stock market Frankenstein with their desire to generate ‘the wealth effect.’ We also regularly stated that eventually, markets stage violent revolts against central planning and command control. The revolt has only just begun. – The King Report, Thursday, August 27
I have maintained that part of China’s “hidden” agenda in devaluing its currency is to let the air out of its bubbles ahead of every other asset bubble-infested system – the U.S. assets bubbles being the biggest (ignore the western propaganda slamming China).
Thursday’s stock-market “bump” was nothing but a bail-out operation to try to fool everybody. We should denounce it: it’s a bail-UP operation. Just as one example: while stock trading, or stock pumping was going on on Thursday, the Department of Commerce revised second-quarter Gross National Product growth up from a 2.3% annual rate to 3.7%. At the same time, Gross National Income, which should be exactly equal, increased only at a 0.6% annual rate.
This phony stock boom is going to be temporary. It’s only a temporary effect; it can’t be anything else; it’s a fraud. Because what they did, is they just pumped things up artificially, and pretended there was improvement. They also lied that it was China that has collapsed,— although many people are not stupid enough to believe that.